In two weeks’ time, an estimated 5.41 million eligible voters will be heading to polling units to cast their ballots in the governorship elections in Kogi, Imo, and Bayelsa states. Despite assurances by INEC and the security agencies pre-election violence and fear of intimidation threaten success of the November 11, elections, BENJAMIN SAMSON writes.
The off-season governorship elections in Kogi, Imo, and Bayelsa states on November 11, 2023, will be the first elections to be conducted under President Bola Tinubu-led administration. However, the recurring problem of politically motivated violence, and attacks on perceived opponents in the states have taken frightening dimensions and are threatening to mar these elections.
In a chat with our reporter, Senior Policy Analyst, Nexter Group, Charles Chimdiya Asiegbu, said its publication titled: “Nigeria’s 2023 State Elections: Mirroring Hotspot States,” listed Kogi, Bayelsa and Imo states as having a propensity for electoral violence based on historical evidence and the existing security situation.
He said: “With the ongoing campaigns, there is a heightened climate in the state. The environment has generally been characterised by inciting and fierce rhetoric, threats of violence, and actual incidents of violence among key political actors,” he said.
It is worth noting that on July 24, 2023, arsonists burnt down the Social Democratic Party campaign office in Lokoja, the capital of Kogi state; this is as it was reported on July 10, 2023, that suspected thugs invaded the SDP campaign office and destroyed billboards, showing the picture of President Bola Tinubu alongside the SDP governorship candidate.
Similarly, on June 3, 2023, the Kogi state SDP Governorship Candidate, Muritala Ajaka, escaped assassination by whiskers when his convoy was attacked by gunmen.
A similar attack was reported on Governor Yahaya Bello’s convoy allegedly by the supporters of the SDP, leading to some aides of the governor being injured.
The security situation in Kogi has attained mind-boggling proportions.
Imo scenario
In Imo state, on September 19, 2023, unidentified gunmen attacked and allegedly killed no fewer than eight security operatives and also set ablaze two vehicles. The security agents affected were soldiers, policemen, and men of the Nigeria Security and Civil Defence Corps (NSCDC).
In another incident on April 21, 2023, gunmen killed five policemen at the Okpala Junction in the Ngor Okpala Local Government Area of Imo state. Also killed during the attack were a couple identified as Mr and Mrs Chinaka Nwagu, who hail from the Amankwo Okpala community.
On July 18, 2022, there was uproar in the state over the killing of 14 youths, who were returning from a wedding in Awo-Omamma in the neighbouring Oru West Council to their community in the Otulu Area of Oru East Local Council of the state, by auspected members of Ebube Agu security operatives, who opened fire on them unprovoked.
Bayelsa
Ahead of the governorship election in Bayelsa state, no fewer than three persons were reportedly shot dead in the Nembe Local Government Area of Bayelsa state on February 15, 2023, following a clash involving two rival cult groups.
During the 2023 election, INEC moved voting in 141 polling units in Bayelsa State to Sunday; the INEC Chairman, Prof. Mahmood Yakubu, told journalists the move followed interruption of voting process by thugs.
He further disclosed that National Youth Service Corps members handling those polling units were afraid, which led to the postponement.
Experts speak
Speaking with our correspondent, a Security Expert, Okechukwu Nwafor, said that despite the fact that there were not many consequences for electoral violence, politicians deploy all strategies to win elections.
He said, “I am not surprised that insecurity is a major concern in the off-cycle elections. People are desperate to win an election. Politicians are ready to kill because to them election is a do-or-die affair. Politicians have seen that there are not many consequences to election violence and thuggery.”
He advised that security agencies must be on top of the situation and avoid being partisan or transactional.
He added, “Some security officers have become very partisan and transactional and might turn blind eyes to thuggery.
“I should think by now that the Nigeria Police Force (NPF), which is the lead agency, would have devised strategies for being in this situation. They should start by building a robust synergy with other robust security agencies. The police should be able to deploy enough officers to the three states.
“This new government has a task on their hands to prove to Nigerians that they are on top of the situation and that democracy exists in the country.”
In the same vein, another Security Expert, Oladele Fajana, while speaking on the situation noted that, “Insecurity is not new, especially when it comes to election periods. In the past, we have experienced clashes among the party supporters that led to the burning of property and killing in most cases, like that of 1983, which I witnessed,” he said
Fajana stressed that, “Proper planning, responsible policy, provision of adequate security, and transparency judgment will help to address the rising insecurity across the country.”
He called for synergy between the Police and other security agencies to instill confidence in the minds of voters before, during and after the conduct of the election.
“Security is a critical aspect of the electoral process that requires attention during the entire electoral process and INEC has recently raised an alarm and fears indicating that insecurity may pose a great challenge to the governorship election.
“Citizens too have had cause to worry over the issue of insecurity in the states and if this is unchecked may discourage citizens from coming out to exercise their franchise on election day,” he stated.
Ethnicity takes center stage in Kogi
In a chat with our reporter, a Kogi-based Political Analyst and Associate Professor of Law at Salem University, Lokoja, Isa Odaudu, attributed increased cases of political violence in the state to ethnic politics.
He said: “Ethnicity has always played a major role in the outcome of elections in Kogi state. Of the three major ethnic groups in the state, the Ebiras and the Igalas are more likely to play the ethnic card.
“Aside the 1991 election that produced the late Prince Abubakar Audu as the first executive governor of the then young state, subsequent elections have been coloured by ethnic considerations.
“In 1991, the contest between Audu from Kogi-East and the late Architect Stephen Olorunfemi from Kogi-West was largely based on ethnic interests. Audu had contested on the platform of the defunct National Republican Convention (NRC), while Olorunfemi ran on the platform of the Social Democratic Party (SDP).
“While people from the Eastern flank voted massively for Audu, Olorunfemi controlled votes from the West, leaving the Kogi-Central as the battleground.
“This scenario was repeated in 2007, when the central voted overwhelmingly for their own, in the person of Senator Salami Ohiare of the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), against Alhaji Ibrahim Idris of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) from the East, who received massive votes from his senatorial district, controlled majorly by the Igalas. Then, Kogi West became the free zone.
“Those elections also witnessed high-scale violence, leading to loss of lives and destruction of property across the state. And now, as the state votes this Saturday in the governorship election, trends of ethnicity and violence have reared their ugly heads, leading to apprehension. If not properly managed, the coming election could get out of control.”
The same scenario played out in 2019 between Yahaya Bello of the All Progressives Congress (APC), who was the incumbent governor from Kogi Central and Engr. Musa Wada of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) from Kogi East. Bello eventually emerged winner in an election that was more or less a contest between the Ebiras and the Igalas.
“This time, the stage is already set for another ethnicity contest, this time among the three major candidates who are relying on votes from their ethnic groups Usman Ododo of the APC (Ebira) , Senator Dino Melaye of the PDP (Okun) and Murtala Ajaka (Igalas),” he said.
Way out
To contend any violence that could mar the off-season elections, Chimdiya said there was no definitive solution to the problem of election violence and violent conflicts, however, significant efforts should be made to limit violence.
He said, “Security agencies should collect and use data on the most common election-related violence in the 2023 presidential elections to prepare for forthcoming off-cycle elections.
“A strategic approach will include sourcing data from relevant think tanks, CSO and NGOs. This data can be examined with security intelligence to understand violent issues and election-related violence better.
“Security deployments and monitoring in hotspot communities should not be restricted to election days. Such areas are equally vulnerable to pre- and post-election violence, necessitating troop deployments and adequate operational logistics to ensure peace, law, and order.
“Known offenders and harbingers of election violence should be personally cautioned and their engagements monitored during, on and after the elections. This should include the monitoring of their activities posted on social media.
“Violence frequently results from accusations of rigging and bias involving the election body and the police. The reputations of INEC and, to some degree, the police for keeping neutrality during the 2023 general elections deteriorated immensely.
“It is expected that they rebuild their image during the off-cycle elections. Any action or inaction that questions the electoral body’s integrity should be avoided. This should include how and whom it uses for its logistics, strategic communications, and its response to emergent issues.
“Developing mechanisms for early reporting, prevention, and reduction of electoral violence should be improved by civil society organisations (CSOs) and community-based organisations (CBOs).
“This method can be managed by the Nigeria Civil Society Situation Room, which brings together more than 60 local and national organisations to share information, anticipate problems, and take swift action. Security agencies can improve their partnership with CSOs to make the most of these systems.
“Security forces, notably the police, should be better equipped and retrained in performing their duties. Security officer(s) caught assisting or inciting violence or criminality should face sanctions.”
CDS assures on security
Meanwhile, the Chief of Defence Staff (CDS), General Christopher Musa, has assured that the military was committed to protecting the nation’s democracy and ensuring peaceful atmosphere in the forthcoming governorship elections in Kogi, Bayelsa and Imo.
Musa made the remark when the Minister of Defence, Alhaji Mohammed Badaru, and Minister of State, Dr Bello Matawalle, paid a working visit to the Defence Headquarters in Abuja.
He urged all stakeholders in the three states to ensure that nobody was killed in the process of casting vote.
According to him, it is important that they all put hands together to sure that the election is hitch-free, peaceful and reflect what the people actually wanted.
The CDS said the military would do whatever it takes to protect democracy and help it to thrive in Nigeria, adding that they were fully ready, prepared and committed to the task.
“We know there have been series of challenges within the sub region where we have a number of coups all over.
“We want to assure Mr President and to you all, that the Armed Forces of Nigeria is fully committed to democracy,” he said.
