I have been asked to speak on the topic: Nigeria’s Political Trajectory: A narrative of hope or ineptitude? I find this paper’s theme very interesting, even though it presents the tale of Nigeria’s political trajectory as a binary one, an either/or. This narrative, far from a binary tale, unfolds as a vibrant tapestry woven with the threads of Nigeria’s complex history, struggles, and unyielding spirit of resilience. Embarking on a journey through Nigeria’s political landscape, we dive into a story oscillating between the pulsating heartbeats of hope and the shadowy valleys of ineptitude.
Nigeria’s journey is not a simple story of hope versus despair but a dynamic cycle that encapsulates both. It is a thrilling, often heart-wrenching narrative of a people’s undying hope, repeatedly dimmed by the ineptitude of a select few. However, it is this very hope that fuels the nation’s relentless pursuit of a brighter future despite the looming spectre of a bleak political horizon.
However, this tale does not stop here. Beyond hope and ineptitude lies a more sinister force—willful destruction—a deliberate erosion of the very pillars meant to uphold the people’s dreams. In my considered opinion, therefore, the theme does not encapsulate a third dimension—that Nigeria’s political trajectory is not only one of hope or ineptitude, or as I have said, hope and ineptitude. It is also of the organized willful destruction of the very things designed to deliver on the hope of the Nigerian people.
So, I ask that you bear with me as I speak on the theme – the Nigerian Political Trajectory – A Tale of Hope, Ineptitude and Willful Destruction.” In my analysis, I will essentially restrict myself to discussing Nigeria’s political trajectory post-1999 because the advent of the 4th Republic and the most extended period of democratic rule in Nigerian history may be considered as the biggest onset of hope and, potentially, the most crushing dashing of the hope for the Nigerian people. However, because history is a fundamental tunic that enshrouds society’s past, grounds its present and uncovers its future, I will briefly and quickly make a detour to espouse the trajectory of our political history that brought us effectively to the advent of the 4th Republic.
Many people insist that Nigeria, as presently structured, was not designed to succeed. Given the many defects in its systems of socio-political and administrative governance, which prevent efficiency, enable corruption, entrench nepotism, divide Nigeria along religious and ethnic lines, and foist an over-bloated cost of governance on the Nigerian people, it has become increasingly difficult to argue with that.
The character of the Nigerian state derives from the various experiences of the past, such as the colonial experience, the coercive amalgamation of southern and northern protectorates in 1914, the various attempted and successful coups d’état (eleven as at the last count in 1997), ethnic politics, the civil war (1967-1970) as well as deep-rooted distrust among some of the ethnic nationalities, and settler/indigene crises across the country (Moru, 2004).
Please permit me to cite the Nigerian economy as an example. Colonial policies significantly altered Nigerian societies in several ways. The colonial economic model in Nigeria aimed to grow the import-export markets by boosting cash crop and mineral output, leading to an extractive economy centred on exporting raw materials and importing finished goods and luxury items. The British introduced a cash economy using the British Pound and compelled Nigerians to engage in wage labour, rapidly altering the traditional agricultural production and capital accumulation methods that had evolved in Nigerian communities over the years. This system is predominantly the same today with minimal variations – exchange the British Pound for the US Dollar and agricultural produce for oil.
Therefore, from the very beginning, the concept of a Nigeria that delivers on the hope of the Nigerian people appears to be misplaced. This begs the question, why do people have hope in a structure designed to work just for a few people, not optimally for the many? We must ponder whether it is wise to have hope in a defective and damaged vehicle to take us to the place we hope for.
Do not get me wrong. The Nigerian tale has been one of great hope. So many instances typify this hope and tell its tale in a manner that even the wildest writers cannot script. For instance, Nigerians had hope for a better system of governance on May 29, 1999, when the military era ended, and we ushered in a democratic system of governance designed to allow the people to choose their leaders.
I recall how, as President Obasanjo and Vice President Atiku Abubakar took their oaths of office, there was a great deal of hope that the pain, suffering, and torment of the military era had finally come to an end and that our country would be firmly placed on the path to socio-political and economic growth and development.
It was a great time to be alive!
Several events in the years that followed gave Nigerians reason to have faith in the country. Several economic reforms opened the country to the outside world and stimulated growth in many critical sectors. But equally important was that we saw a system of government where the arms of government were ready to checkmate each other and curb each other’s excesses.
There are many examples. We saw the legislature fight to maintain its independence while fighting to curb the executive’s excesses. Many examples exist in the early days of the 4th Republic. But a particularly poignant example lies in how the legislature at the national level vehemently fought for its independence and opposed any attempts to impose leadership on it.
Another example is the vehement opposition that the legislatures across the country gave to attempts to amend the Constitution to grant a third term to the head of the executive arm of government at the federal and state levels.
In all these, the Nigerian people witnessed robust debate anchored in the intellectual contributions of the elected representatives of the people.
Within the executive branch, there was an effort to hold people accountable and ensure that the government worked for the people, which had not happened in Nigeria for several years before 1999. Thus, we saw the executive arms at the federal level try to hold itself and the states accountable. Furthermore, many examples of this abound – impeachments and prosecution of governors who had continually dipped their hands in the till; the arrest and prosecution of the former Inspector General of Police, Mr Tafa Balogun; the arrest and prosecution of key ministers, some of whom were long term friends of the President at the time and so on.
We also saw the judiciary give robust, landmark judgments that rebuked the excesses of the executive and legislature and extensively improved our jurisprudence.
Finally, we saw solid intra-party opposition when heads of the executive acted outside the powers granted by our laws. This is where we saw a Vice President file landmark cases that challenged his boss’s excesses and win. We saw Governors being reinstated into office after improper impeachment processes. We saw the rights and liberties of the Nigerian people upheld in many cases.
We saw members of political parties look at and challenge the people who controlled the levers of power in the country when those levers were improperly moved or moved in ways that were against the people’s interests.
It is essential that people do not get me wrong. Things were not perfect. There was still a lot of corruption, ineptitude, and inefficiency. My point is that there was growth enough, economically, and politically, for the Nigerian people to have hope that we were on a path to sustainable development.
But the tale of Nigeria’s political trajectory has never been straightforward. Moreover, it does not appear like it will ever be. As democracy deepened, it seemed that there was the determination by a powerful few to destroy the very institutions capable of checkmating each other, upholding the rule of law, curbing the excesses of the nation’s elite, securing the nation, growing the economy, and protecting the lowly.
This destruction did not happen overnight. It may have been accelerated over the last few years, but there has been a sustained effort to destroy the fabric of the nation for the protection and benefit of a few. Moreover, it has taken many shapes and many forms. It has happened in compelling prosecuting agencies to ignore the prosecution of people who break our laws as long as they are close to those in power. It has happened by bending institutional laws to allow people to make millions of dollars at the expense of the economy. It has happened in systematically weakening our security agencies by the theft of monies meant for equipment for and welfare of our men and women in uniform. It has happened for a few people’s political advancement over the Nigerian people’s collective will. It has been death by a thousand cuts to the point that one wonders how Nigeria survives.
The tales of incredible levels of corruption—the invasion of the homes of Supreme Court justices and the removal of a Chief Justice of the Federation—the ineptitude of the security agencies—primarily the police—the inefficiency of the civil service and the destruction of critical economic infrastructure are unending. Each example is more mind-boggling than the last. Each tale defies belief.
We are witnessing, in real-time, the capture of the Nigerian state by the nation’s political elite for the purpose that the elite may destroy its soul to enable it to suck out its resources. We are witnessing the judiciary cower before the nation’s elite and the executive pocket the judiciary. Long gone are the days of institutional independence when arms of government jealously guarded and performed their constitutional roles. Long gone is that glimmer of hope that this country would not only survive but that it would thrive. That hope has long since been replaced by a pervasive air of doom, despondency, and despair.
Our current reality is that as the Nigerian state is currently primed, in its current trajectory, on this path, there is only one inevitable conclusion—the death of Nigeria that we know and love.
The indefatigable Nigerian spirit will not allow me to believe there is no way to stop it. Whether our leaders will implement policies to stop the inexorable slide to a Hobbesian state is entirely different. And that is precisely where the source of our problems and, indeed, the fountain of its solutions lie.
For too long, the Nigerian state has lacked the elite consensus as to what constitutes development and what may be termed as progress. Our elites have no consensus on what is good and bad behaviour. Our elites have no consensus of what is too much, what is too far, what should/can/must not be done. For our elite, anything goes. Anything is acceptable as long as it protects an interest, preserves a self-serving system and keeps a steady flow of funds.
Our elite sees the nation in a way that no nation can survive – as a carcass from which it can feed fat endlessly. And unless it changes that point of view, our country will not survive. It is not a curse. It is not a doomsday prophecy. It is an escapable conclusion derived from centuries of socio-economic principles and from the study of successful and failed nations around the world.
Nigeria is currently in its most extended period of uninterrupted civil rule, which has lasted for 25 years. Nevertheless, it falls short of meeting the criteria to be considered a true democracy. Scoring less than half in Freedom House’s assessment, Nigeria is only partly free, and exhibits feature more in tune with a competitive authoritarian state. The net effect is that the ordinary citizens seem to have gradually lost hope in the system that replaced the military regime, while the rulers and supposed representatives of the people—who live in opulence that does not conform to the current economic realities in the country—seem less bothered.
The policy reforms introduced by the present administration, including the removal of fuel subsidies and exchange rate policies, have further plunged the Nigerian economy into an unprecedented economic crisis. The current state of the Nigerian economy is characterized by a galloping inflation rate that has skyrocketed from about 20 per cent in May 2023, when this administration took over, to about 30 per cent and still rising. As a result, food and other essential household items, such as healthcare, transportation, and education, suddenly became luxury items beyond the reach of most Nigerians.
The suffering in the country has so much escalated that the over 130 million multi-dimensionally poor Nigerians can no longer breathe because of its suffocating impact on the majority of Nigerians. In addition, the Naira has depreciated by over 100% since the implementation of the floating policy, adding to the pressure of economic woes in the country.
The current economic policies, drawn from the Renewed Hope Agenda, are dashing Nigerians’ hopes, creating pain, and causing despair. The Budget of Renewed Hope described as a budget that will go further than ever in cementing macroeconomic stability, seems daunting. The private sector is shrinking by the day as small businesses fold up and Multinational Companies leave Nigeria in droves.
The perceived absence of judicial autonomy and its related problems has led to a loss of the sense of fear of retribution, as justice seems to be now a commodity available to the highest bidder. Are we not embarrassed as a nation when justices of the Supreme Court, who themselves face a crisis of confidence, berate lower court judges for their apparent lack of circumspection and due diligence in delivering judgements in the last election petitions tribunal?
If we are to survive as a nation, our elites need to learn that it is in their enlightened self-interest to forge a common consensus that develops the country, grows the economy, secures the people, protects rights and enforces obligations.
That consensus will then lay the foundation for the rapid and sustained growth of our nation, in the manner in which the consensus of the founding fathers of the United States of America laid the foundation for it to become the number one superpower in the world today or the way similar consensus repositioned the United Arab Emirates and Singapore.
As a nation, we must define right and wrong. Simply put, we must then reward and incentivize right, and discourage and punish wrong. No matter whose ox is gored. I know it sounds much easier than it really is. But no nation can survive unless and until it establishes a code of morals and values that it lives by. And this is a task that we must undertake.
The Nigerian people as a whole bear the responsibility to live by such a code of morals and values. After all, our leaders are a product of our society, and we live, work, and trade with each other. We must devise a system that identifies worthy leaders and rewards them with followership while shunning the rotten eggs among us.
To remedy the ills, Nigeria must focus on building solid democratic institutions, including the judiciary, electoral commission, and legislature. Ensuring their independence, transparency, and accountability can help to uphold the rule of law and prevent abuses of power. Similarly, implementing electoral reforms to enhance the integrity of the electoral process is crucial. While I concede that there have been improvements and progress in our electoral system over the years, a lot still needs to be done in the area of prosecuting and punishing electoral offenders. The inability to accomplish this is the reason why some still dare to engage in electoral fraud.
Given that corruption has been a pervasive issue in Nigerian politics, implementing robust anti-corruption measures, including prosecuting corrupt officials and establishing transparent procurement processes, can help restore public trust in government institutions. Holding political leaders accountable for their actions and ensuring transparency in government processes are essential for good governance. Strengthening oversight mechanisms and promoting a culture of accountability can help prevent abuses of power and ensure that elected officials serve the people’s interests.
Nigeria is a diverse country with significant ethnic and religious divisions. Promoting dialogue, tolerance, and understanding among different ethnic and religious groups can help to reduce tensions and foster national unity. Nigeria may also consider constitutional reforms to address structural issues that contribute to political instability, such as the distribution of power between the federal and state governments, the role of traditional institutions, and the protection of human rights.
I can go on and on. However, I have already taken too much time. While much has been written about the Nigerian story, while our tale has largely been one of misfortune, it has not been completely written. We can grab hold of the pen of destiny and write a beautiful story of this beautiful land.
Dr Chima Amadi is the Chairman Steering Committee, Centre for Transparency Advocacy and a Doctoral Fellow, University of Warwick
