The nation’s real Gross Domedtic Product (GDP) estimated to grow year on year at 2.1 per cent in the third quarter of 2018.
This represents an improvement over the growth rates of 2.0 per cent and 1.5 per cent recorded in first quarter and second quarter of 2018 respectively.
Analysts from Afriinvest research group attribute the expected faster expansion in real GDP to improvement in the oil sector as well as steady growth in the non-oil sector.
The group stated that after a contraction in second quarter of 2018 in the oil sector, it had predicted a return to growth due to a recovery in oil production and higher oil prices. According to the Ministry of Petroleum Resources, oil production increased to an average of 2.1mb/d in third quarter of 2018, 6.1 per cent growth over 1.98 mb/d in the corresponding quarter of 2017 and 14.1 per cent higher than in the previous quarter.
Oil price was also 45.9 per cent stronger at an average of $75.50 b/d in third quarter of 2018 compared with the same period of 2017.
In the non-oil sector, they predicted that there would be a more broad-based expansion and this will be driven by a slight recovery in agriculture growth which had slumped to the lowest quarterly growth on record in second quarter of 2018.
The CBN reported better agriculture activity in third quarter 2018 due to rainfall and the harvest of crops such as cereals and tubers. The group, however, said that conflict and flooding in the Middle-Belt continue to be a challenge to agriculture, thus our growth expectations are moderate.
In manufacturing, it is expected to have a sustained positive performance due to increased activities as shown by the Purchasing Managers’ Index during the quarter while in services, telecommunications sector is expected to continue to provide a boost, as well as large sub-sectors such as trade and real estate, which were still in the negative region in in second quarter of 2018.
They, however, noted that the persistently weak consumer spending softened the projections of an our performance in the non-oil sector when agriculture is excluded.
