By Mohammed Alhassan
Though President Goodluck Jonathan has not made public his intention to contest the 2015 presidential election, it is certain that he would do so as nothing including possible chaos and instability in the country after the polls can dissuade him. This is because for the President and his loyalists including most of his kinsmen, in the South-south geo-political zone, 2015, is a matter of life and death.
It should be noted that President Jonathan’s interest in the 2015 polls is unpopular as was his contest for the same position which he won in 2011 using state power in his position as the man who completed the late President Yar’Adua’s tenure terminated suddenly by death.
Though he is a very divisive person who to win power and retain it so far, has had to force Nigerians back to their ethnic enclaves, President Jonathan and his supporters have practically captured the ruling party, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) to the point where no member of that party is keen on the 2015 presidential elections except him. To achieve this feat, once again, the incumbent relied on his legendary divisiveness which saw the ruling party factionalised with the emergence of the then New PDP, and the mass exit of many of its members among whom are former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and a number of governors of the party. This group of prominent politicians have now found refuge and pitched tent with the opposition All Progressives Congress (APC).
The issue that was in contention in 2011 when Jonathan muscled his way to the presidency is still at stake today as we move towards the 2015 polls. And this issue as in 2011 may be glossed over and power of incumbency employed in order to impose the incumbent again on Nigerians. It is interesting and heartening however that many Nigerians see the possible coming back of Jonathan in 2015 as unlikely and fraught with dangerous consequences as with his 2011 victory. President Jonathan’s victory by all means in 2011 gave Nigerians the Boko Haram terrorism that we have today making life a nightmare for Nigerians and the accompanying insecurity in the nation. Many Nigerians are worried about the consequences of another imposition in 2015 although many hold the view that 2015, for Jonathan is far- fetched as a nation weakened by terrorism might not survive another assault on its people. Unfortunately, President Jonathan has shown that his main concern is to remain the nation’s leader no matter what because he sees his Presidency as the right of the people he represents forgetting that certain compromises were made for him. In the normal play of the zoning formula and rotational presidency, it may not have been the turn of his geo- political zone, the South-south.
We all remember how the zoning arrangement for the presidency was set aside in 2011 to accommodate President Jonathan. In the run-off to the 2015 polls, the Jonathan issue led to the first ever fractionalisation of the hitherto Pan Nigerian party, PDP.
Based on the above scenario, doubt is growing whether with the current President in the race there will be free and fair elections in 2015 or as happened in 2011 under his nominee as chairman of the electoral umpire, INEC, everything would be done for him to achieve victory while his opponents would be told to go to court and prove their case?
It is not certain that the 2015 polls will be free and fair given the way and manner the ruling PDP is set to achieve victory and the threat by supporters of the incumbent to make the nation to burn if it the incumbent is defeated. This means that both the PDP and handlers of President Jonathan would do everything in the books to ensure victory no matter the consequences, which could be grave for the country bearing in mind the many shortcomings of the Jonathan administration in the past five years.
The recent governorship election in Ekiti state won by the PDP at the expense of the ruling APC, shows the game plan of the ruling party for future elections under the guidance of the current INEC Chairman. To ensure the victory of the PDP in a state where the people are fanatical about the main opposition, APC, the PDP federal government employed massively the nation’s security services, to virtually shut down the state and restrict freedom and movement of APC members weeks before the polls. It is instructive and clear to all Nigerians and the world that security mobilization for that election in Ekiti, a small state was more than what the PDP Federal government had done against the Boko Haram terrorists in the past five years!
The 2015 polls are unlikely to be free, fair and transparent as the PDP are known election riggers coupled with their control of INEC. Nonetheless, Nigerians should remain vigilant and ensure they defend their votes.
Alhassan wrote from Maitama, Abuja.
