President Muhammadu Buhari said that the ongoing fight, which erupted in the Sudanese capital between the military and powerful para-military, Rapid Support Forces (RSF), is an unwelcome development.
Clashes between Sudan’s military and the country’s main paramilitary force have left at least 56 dead, while control of the presidential palace and the international airport in Khartoum is in doubt after disputed claims from both sides, in fighting that threatens to destabilise Sudan and the wider region.
Speaking during a visit to him by the Transitional President of Chad, Gen. Mahamat Idriss Déby Itno in Makkah, Saudi Arabia, the President described the fighting that claimed tens of lives as unfortunate.
The two leaders reviewed the unfortunate situation and called on all neighbouring countries and the international community to prevail on the warring sides to stop fighting and negotiate.
“The situation in Sudan is unfortunate,” the President said, stressing that Sudan deserves peace after all that it had gone through in the past.
Indeed, Sudan has gone through a lot. But what is behind the latest clashes? The clashes erupted amid an apparent power struggle between the two main factions of Sudan’s military regime.
The Sudanese armed forces are, broadly, loyal to General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, the country’s de facto ruler, while the paramilitaries of the Rapid Support Forces, a collection of militia, follow the former warlord General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, known as Hemedti.
The power struggle has its roots in the years before a 2019 uprising that ousted Omar al-Bashir, who built up formidable security forces that he deliberately set against one another.
When an effort to transition to a democratic civilian-led government faltered after Omar al-Bashir’s fall, an eventual showdown appeared inevitable, with diplomats in Khartoum warning in early 2022 that they feared such an outbreak of violence. In recent weeks, tensions have risen further.
The RSF was founded by Omar al-Bashir to crush a rebellion in Darfur that began more than 20 years ago due to the reported political and economic marginalisation of the local people reportedly by Sudan’s central government. The RSF was also known by the name of Janjaweed, which became associated with widespread atrocities.
In 2013, Omar al-Bashir transformed the Janjaweed into a semi-organised paramilitary force and gave their leaders military ranks before deploying them to crush a rebellion in South Darfur and then dispatching many to fight in the war in Yemen and, later, Libya.
The RSF, led by Hemedti, and the regular military forces under Burhan cooperated to oust Omar al-Bashir in 2019. The RSF then dispersed a peaceful sit-in that was held in front of the military headquarters in Khartoum.
A power-sharing deal with the civilians who led the protests against Omar al-Bashir, which was supposed to bring about a transition towards a democratic government, was interrupted by a coup in October 2021.
The coup put the army back in charge but it faced weekly protests, renewed isolation and deepening economic woes. Hemedti swung behind the plan for a new transition, bringing tensions with Burhan to the surface.
Hemedti has huge wealth said to be derived from the export of gold from illegal mines and commands tens of thousands of battle-hardened veterans. He has long chafed at his position as official deputy on Sudan’s ruling council.
What are the fault lines? A central cause of tension since the uprising is the civilian demand for oversight of the military and integration of the RSF into the regular armed forces.
Civilians have also called for the handover of lucrative military holdings in agriculture, trade and other industries, a crucial source of power for an army that has often outsourced military action to regional militias.
Another point of contention is the pursuit of justice over allegations of war crimes by the military and its allies in the conflict in Darfur from 2003. The international criminal court is seeking trials for Bashir and other Sudanese suspects.
Justice is also being sought over the killings of pro-democracy protesters in June 2019, in which military forces are implicated. Activists and civilian groups have been angered by delays to an official investigation. In addition, they want justice for, at least, 125 people killed by security forces in protests since the 2021 coup.
Yet, the crucial issue and what occupies the minds of Buhari and Chad’s Itno is what is at stake in the region.
Sudan is in a volatile region bordering the Red Sea, the Sahel region and the Horn of Africa. Its strategic location and agricultural wealth have attracted regional power plays, complicating the chances of a successful transition to a civilian-led government.
Several of Sudan’s neighbours, including Ethiopia, Chad and South Sudan, have been affected by political upheavals and conflict, and Sudan’s relationship with Ethiopia, in particular, has been strained over issues including disputed farmland along their border.
Major geopolitical dimensions are also at play, with Russia, the US, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and other powers battling for influence in Sudan.
The Saudis and the UAE have seen Sudan’s transition as an opportunity to push back against Islamist influence in the region. Saudi Arabia, along with the United States of America and the United Kingdom, forms the “Quad,” which has sponsored mediation in Sudan along with the United Nations and the African Union.
Western powers fear the potential for a Russian base on the Red Sea, which Sudanese military leaders have expressed openness to. However, Sudan must not be made a place for a proxy show of force and or war.
The country’s overall situation will deteriorate unless a political solution is found to restore a credible, fully functioning civilian-led government. The military’s decision to withdraw from politics and recent initiatives made by civilian forces offer a window of opportunity for the military and political forces to reach an agreement on the way forward.
Time is of the essence, however, because the longer political paralysis lasts, the more difficult it will become to return Sudan to a state of peace. Thus, all actors should seize the opportunity now and reach a credible agreement on a solution that enjoys legitimacy in the eyes of the Sudanese people.
Thankfully, Itno, especially, realises that the situation in Sudan is worrisome. “Unfortunately, if not arrested, it will have serious repercussions on neighbouring countries,” he said. “I have spoken to the leaders of both factions. If everyone tries, it will calm down the situation.”
Yet, African leaders, especially the elders – President Buhari, Macky Sall (Senegal) and AU Chairperson Azali Assoumani (Comoros) as well as other influential leaders of the world need to step in.
On the Ararume, NNPCL fiasco debacle…
President Muhammadu Buhari, soon after a judgment was made by the Federal High Court in Abuja ordering the restoration of Senator Ifeanyi Ararume as the non-executive Chairman of Nigeria National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL), called for due process to be observed.
The Federal High Court, presided over by Justice Inyang Ekwo, this week, set aside the removal of Senator Ifeanyi Ararume as the non-executive chairman of the board of the NNPC Limited.
Ararume had dragged the President before the court praying it to declare his removal as the NNPCL chief was illegal, unlawful and unconstitutional and that it was a total breach of CAMA law under which the NNPCL was incorporated.
Furthermore, he prayed the court to issue an order to return him to the office and also demanded N100 billion as compensation for the damages he suffered nationally and internationally
The court held that Ararume’s removal by the President contravened provisions of NNPC Limited laws and the Companies and Allied Matters Act.
The President, in his response to the judgement, highlighted the need for calm from all the sides involved in the matter.
He, however, said that while the Office of the Attorney-General of the Federation and Minister for Justice has yet to receive a formal copy of the ruling, the NNPCL has already taken steps to appeal the judgement.
“This Administration respects the Rule of Law and nothing will be done outside it to resolve the matter,” the President said.
On this note, the President should be commended. Governments need to have good laws, institutions and processes in place to ensure accountability, stability, equality and access to justice for all. This ultimately leads to respect for human rights and the environment. It also helps lower levels of corruption and instances of violent conflict.
Of course, good governance needs to aim for justice. Yet, while the element of the rule of law is extremely important as part of good governance for the promotion of human rights, that element should not merely imply respect for the law.
Any government in Nigeria, including the one led by President Buhari, should consider the well-being and welfare of the people, as well as their security in inclusivity in government, in order to guarantee peace and less resort to courts by the citizens.
