Barely four months after the February 23, 2019, presidential election and 25 days after the inauguration of the President Muhammadu Buhari for a second term, have politicians started permutations for 2023 elections. TAIYE ODEWALE, BODE OLAGOKE and ABDULRAHMAN ZAKARIYAU, in this report, take a look at the apparent distraction this may cause.
In the last 20 years
There are six geo-political zones in Nigeria and they include South-west, South-south, South-east, North-central, North-west, and North-east. Interestingly, zoning which used to be a style of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) has found its way into the country’s political system, though there is nothing of such in the 1999 Constitution as amended.
Since the return of the country to democracy in 1999, four Nigerians have been democratically elected as president of the Federal Republic of Nigeria. In 1999, Chief Olusegun Obasanjo who hails from Ogun state, South-west, was elected president and held sway till 2007. Late President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua, an indigene of Katsina state, North-west, was elected as Obasanjo’s successor. Yar’Adua’s administration was short-lived, as he died in 2010. His then vice- president, Dr Goodluck Ebele Jonathan, who hails from Bayelsa state, South-south, completed his tenure. And in 2011, Jonathan was elected as president. In an overwhelming victory, the incumbent President Muhammadu Buhari stopped the re-election bid of Goodluck Jonathan in 2015. Buhari, who also hails from Katsina state, North-west, defeated Jonathan and his party, PDP, in the 2015 presidential election and was re-elected on February 23, 2019.
What this implies is that since 1999 till date, three out of the six geo-political zones have produced presidents. They are South-west, North-west, and South-south. The remaining three zones, South-east, North-central, and North-east are yet to produce president. However, the concern of some Nigerian political elite is not about the micro-zoning among the six zones, but the zoning between the North and South. This explains why, since emergence of President Muhammadu Buhari in the last general elections, there have been many intrigues over which zone should produce the president in 2023.
Babachir fires the first shot
A former Secretary to the Government of the Federation (SGF), Babachir Lawal, who is also known to be an influential person in the President Buhari’s administration, a few weeks after the February 23, 2019 presidential election, stated that it was not compulsory that the north should cede power to the south in 2023.
“I don’t attend any meeting in which a so-called north takes decisions. If there is such an organisation that takes those decisions, they don’t invite me. For obvious reasons, I am a democrat and I believe every part of Nigeria has qualified candidates for the presidential slot. Every part of Nigeria! Indeed, I don’t see why the… even if it is in the north if we say the North-west has produced a presidential candidate, the South-west had produced one, I don’t see why the North-central cannot produce or the North-east cannot produce just as South-south, South-east, South-west, and even North-west can still produce. The constitution doesn’t say it is prohibited. And as I said, I believe every zone, every state, has capable people that can run this country effectively.”
On whether or not deputies should always succeed their principals like Osinbajo succeeding Buhari in 2023, he said; “It is not in the constitution; so it is not a principle – principle of what? It is not in APC constitution, it is not in the national constitution, it is not in the Bible, I don’t know whether it is in the Qur’an; I don’t know. So, I don’t see how it became a principle.”
Ex-transport minister, Amaechi, dropped his salvo
Adding his voice to the 2023 game, immediate past Minister of Transport, who also doubled as the director-general of the President Muhammadu Buhari Campaign Organisation, Rotimi Amaechi, said the people of South-east have lost their chance of securing the 2023 presidential slot after they voted massively against the APC and President Buhari during the February 23 presidential election.
Amaechi, who is from Rivers state, South-south, said, “I don’t know what they will do now for voting against the APC. For refusing to support the APC, they cannot come to the table to demand the presidency slot.
“For people like us in the APC, if the Igbo had come and voted Buhari, they would boldly tell Mr President and the national chairman of the party that presidency should go the South-east since the South-south, South-west and North-west have produced presidents. What argument would the South-east come up with now to convince anybody that they deserve the slot for 2023 president?”
Lawan advocates South-west
Last weekend, news broke on the social media that the President of the Senate, Ahmed Lawan, urged President Buhari and the APC to zone its 2023 presidential ticket to the South-west.
He was quoted to have said, “The president and indeed our party must beware of divisive elements who are now proponents of retaining power in the north beyond 2023.
“I have said it before and I believe that 2023 presidential ticket of the APC must go to the South-west. Since I made this comment last time, some members of my party have been hatching a plot to suspend me from the party but I am not moved and I will still hold my ground that power must go to the west. June 12 Democracy Day is a milestone in Nigeria’s history and anyone who embraces democracy in Nigeria should be proud of what Buhari has done and it takes so much courage to do.”
But in a swift reaction, Lawan on Monday dissociated himself from the statement calling for power shift to Nigeria’s South-west in 2023.
He stated, “My attention has been drawn to a statement circulating on various media platforms credited to me as saying that power must shift to the South West in 2023. This is a misrepresentation of fact and identity.
“The statement is said to have been made by the Secretary of Adamawa State APC, Ahmed Lawan, who incidentally bears similar name with me. The public should please take note.”
Tinubu, NASS and APC crisis
As the game continues to gather momentum, one of the people at the forefront is the national leader of the APC, who is a two-term governor of Lagos state, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu. Prior to the NASS leadership election, it was reported that Tinubu was trying to hijack NASS to perfect his 2023 ambition. Some politicians also alleged that the ongoing crisis in the APC was because of the 2023 election. They alleged that some people are trying to hijack the party structure for their 2023 ambition.
During the politicking for the Speaker and President of the Senate, immediate past President of the Senate, Dr. Bukola Saraki, said the continuous attacks on him by the APC chieftain, Tinubu, was all about his 2023 presidential ambition.
PDP reacts
On its part, the opposition party, the PDP, has cautioned that the 2019 election is not over; that the case is still before the Presidential Election Tribunal.
Its national publicity secretary, Kola Ologbondiyan, said, “APC members that have started strategising for 2023 are only deceiving themselves, the case is still before the Presidential election tribunal. This is what will consume them.
“Our major concern in the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) is to reclaim our stolen mandate at the presidential election tribunal. So, 2019 presidential election is not over until the tribunal decides.”
APC stalwart speaks
An APC stalwart and a security expert, Jackson Lakan Ojo, in his reaction, said with the way the members of the party members are engaging themselves because of 2023, the party may not survive it.
He said, “The politics of 2019 has come and gone, the politics of 2023 is what you are seeing. Some people in Lagos state, maybe the national leader of the APC, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, have intention to run for presidency and the governor of Kaduna state, Nasir el-Rufuai, too wants to run for presidency, so they all begin to battle themselves. But at the end of the day, all these, if care is not taken, will boomerang on APC, because the party will be divided across zones.
“I want to tell you clearly that Mr President is the unifying factor of APC; so without him in 2019 and with all these regional political agitations will not be good for the party. There is need for all party leaders, stakeholders and supporters to come together and work as a team. But if the game for 2023 that they have started is allowed to continue, then it will threaten the party’s unity.”
Senator Barau’s take
In a telephone interview with Blueprint Weekend, Senator Jibrin Barau (APC, Kano North), said it is too early to discuss 2023.
“You cannot cross a bridge before getting there. We are in 2019, where all political office holders are just starting the four-year mandate given to them by the Nigerian electorates at different levels.
“Where the position of presidency will be zoned to in 2023 should not be the subject of discussion now. Not even next year or 2021, because what Nigerians are yearning for now are dividends of democracy and not power shift in whatever direction.
“In any case, as it has always been with our political experimentation over the years, exigencies of political calculations and permutations in 2022/2023, will determine where power will shift to, but surely not a topic for 2019.”
Another chieftain of the APC, who is also the director-general of the Voice of Nigeria (VON), Osita Okechukwu, said it is too early to start bickering over the zoning of the president in 2023.
Okechukwu said the issue in the front burner should be how to consolidate the foundation being laid by President Buhari in constructing formidable critical infrastructure which will lead Nigeria to the next level, but that there exits a subsisting zoning convention between the north and south.
In an interview with our correspondent, the VON boss said because the intendment of the zoning convention is for peace, unity and progress of Nigeria, the country should be guided by these core values which gave birth to zoning convention in the first place.
“Definitely it is absolutely too early to start bickering over the zoning of the president in 2023; especially when not only that the issue in the front burner is how to consolidate the foundation being laid by President Muhammadu Buhari in constructing formidable critical infrastructure which will lead Nigeria to the next level, but that there exits a subsisting zoning convention between the north and south.
“In the core doctrine of liberal democracy everybody North-east, North-west, North-central and South-west, South-south and South-east are basically qualified to vie for the office of president in 2023. However, because the intendment of the zoning convention is for peace, unity and progress of our dear country, we should be guided by these core values which gave birth to zoning convention in the first place,” he said.
He further said: “I am a witness when in 1999 some patriotic Nigerian political leaders constructed the zoning convention of president to rotate from south to north, so as to heal the wounds simulated by the heinous annulment of June 12 presidential election won by a foremost and eminent patriot, Chief M.K.O. Abiola. I was in the defunct Social Democratic Party (SDP) with MKO and others and know how the annulment divided the country. So, it became imperative that power should shift to the south. It was thought then that equity, natural justice and good conscience demands south west where Chief Abiola hailed from should commence the zoning convention.
“From the foregoing, out of the three geopolitical zones in the South, the South- west and South-south had presided over the country since the advent of the zoning convention. Therefore, it is the turn of the South-east, going by the core values of peace, unity and progress of our dear country. This will be equity, natural justice and good conscience at play.”
Going forward
Going forward, the APC chieftain said: “My advice to our brethren in the South-west is to remember the core values of the zoning convention; for in the domain of liberal democracy, there is the law with its legal teeth and the convention with its moral weight and our patriots decided to choose the convention and not the law. For avoidance of doubt in 1999, Alhaji Abubakar Rimi, Dr Olusola Saraki, Adamu Ciroma, etc all, of blessed memory were duly qualified and eminent to fly the flag of each of the two political parties, but were dissuaded to drop their ambition for the overall interest of all.
Similarly, an Abuja- based legal practitioner, Barrister Gaius Osambowen, said such agitation now regardless of who is making it is too early.
“From president to governors and elected lawmakers, at both the federal and state levels, have not even spent 30 days in office on mandate renewal or fresh mandate, and yet people are already talking of 2023 which is four solid years away.
“These are agitations that get government at whatever level distracted and in fact, derailed. For God sake, the topical issues, for now, should be governance and not politics. Politics should not only be seen as a game for power grabbing, but also that of service to society.
‘It’s disrespect, demeaning to Buhari’
The national coordinator of Buhari Media Organisation (BMO), Niyi Akinsiju, in his reaction, described the development as “unfortunate.”
He expressed disappointment that some APC members and leaders couldn’t wait for President Buhari to be sworn in for the new mandate before the talk of 2023 elections began.
“It is unfortunate, and it talks to the atrophied mercantilism that has become the value definition of politics and political office. I personally feel depressed anytime I read or watch some party members as they debate zoning of the presidential ticket towards 2023.
“These people couldn’t even wait for President Muhammadu Buhari to be sworn in for the new mandate Nigerians have entrusted in him before starting the clamor for which zone is preferred for the next presidential candidate, I sincerely think it’s demeaning and disrespectful of the person of the president and the generality of the Nigerian people,” he said.
“The purpose of politics is service delivery for the good and advancement of the mass of the people; it’s definitely not a competition over who gets what in the democratic firmament.
“I call on all party members to eschew this distraction and unhelpful divisionism, everybody should rally round President Buhari at this time so as to assist him deliver on the promises of the next level of his administration to the long-suffering Nigerian masses.”
An analyst’s view
A political analyst, Abubakar Mohammed, said the game for 2023 is part of what is delaying President Buhari naming his cabinet.
He said, “The game for 2023 presidency is already on, especially within the ruling party. It is a well-known fact that the group that gets what will to a large extent determine which zone will produce the next president.
“The truth is one of those things delaying President Muhammadu Buhari’s appointment of ministers is the game for 2023. All the group and cabal are lobbying for the juicy ministries to make a statement, take charge and even get resource for their 2023 elections. This is too early and is bad because the longer it takes for the president to name his cabinet, the more governance will suffer. If care is not taken, in a desperate attempt to push their agenda they might pressurise President Muhammadu Buhari to appoint people that are not qualified.”
