The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised Nigeria’s economic growth downward by 0.3 percentage points due to weaker oil and gas production.
This was stated in the 2023 World Economic Outlook released yesterday at its ongoing Annual Meetings in Marrakech, Morocco.
According to the Outlook, in Nigeria, growth is forecasted to decrease from 3.3 per cent in 2022 to 2.9 per cent in 2023, with a subsequent increase to 3.1 per cent in 2024. This decrease is primarily influenced by the adverse effects of high inflation on consumption.
The 2023 forecast has been revised downward by 0.3 percentage points (pp), reflecting weaker oil and gas production, partially due to maintenance work.
Meanwhile, in sub-Saharan Africa, growth is anticipated to decrease to 3.3 per cent in 2023 before recovering to 4.0 per cent in 2024.
There have been downward revisions of 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points for 2023 and 2024, respectively. This growth trajectory remains below the historical average of 4.8 per cent.
The decline in projection is attributed to various factors, including worsening weather shocks, the global economic slowdown, and domestic supply challenges, notably within the electricity sector.
Note also that the global growth rate is expected to decrease from 3.5% in 2022 to 3.0 per cent in 2023 and further to 2.9 per cent in 2024 on an annual average basis. In contrast, emerging markets, and developing economies are projected to experience a relatively modest decline in growth, going from 4.1 per cent in 2022 to 4.0 per cent in both 2023 and 2024.
There’s a slight downward revision of 0.1 percentage point for 2024 compared to the July 2023 WEO Update projection.
However, these average figures conceal regional disparities; while growth in two of the five main geographic geographic regions is expected to rise in 2023 and then decline in 2024.
