… Political alliance between South-west, North-west a factor – Prof. Salihu
… Religion, voter apathy, governance contributed to ruling party’s victory – Ojo
…Opposition parties handed victory to APC
…Obi a candidate for the future – NPSA president
The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) declaration of Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu as the winner of the February 25th presidential election has finally drawn the curtains on the most fiercely contested election in the country’s history since 1999. In this report, ABDULRAHMAN ZAKARIYAU writes on the factors that probably shaped the outcome.
Nigerians trooped out in their numbers on Saturday last week to elect their a president, and as predicted the election was keenly contested between Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Peter Obi of the Labour Party (LP), Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso of the New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP) and Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress (APC).
The country’s electoral umpire, the Independent National electoral Commission (INEC), in the early hours of Wednesday, February 28, declared the APC candidate, Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the winner. The former Lagos state governor polled 8,794,726 votes to defeat the other contestants.
While PDP’s Atiku polled a total of 6,984,520 votes, Obi of the LP came third with a total of 6,101,533 votes while Rabiu Kwankwaso of the NNPP came fourth with 1,496,687 votes.
Reactions
INEC’s announcement of Tinubu as the winner was greeted with mixed feelings among the citizens; while some believed it was a deserved victory, some others said the opposition parties handed Tinubu the victory even a section of others claimed the poll was manipulated to favour the APC candidate.
Speaking to Blueprint Weekend, a political analyst, Aminu Mohammed, said the pattern of votes polled by various candidates in a few states helped determine the winner and the losers. According to Mohammed, the law is explicit; you don’t need to win all 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) to be elected president.
He, in a telephone interview with this reporter, said, “Tinubu of APC won because he was able to get 25 per cent of the votes cast in 30 states, more than the 25 states constitutionally required.
“Atiku like Tinubu won in 12 states and Obi won in 11 states. But the APC was declared the winner from the results we have seen because its candidate, Tinubu, scored the requirement and even garnered the majority votes when compared to the others.
“From the result released by INEC, Tinubu defeated his closest rival, Atiku, with over 1,800 votes. The margin of the votes he polled in Lagos, Kano, Rivers, and Kwara positioned him for the victory. If Atiku was second or first in Kano, Lagos, and Rivers, perhaps the outcome would have been different.”
Alliances
In his view, the president of the Nigerian Political Science Association (NPSA), Prof. Hassan Salihu, identified the political alliance between the South-west and North-west as a major contributory factor to Tinubu’s victory.
Prof. Salihu said, “The first factor to mention is to talk about the political alliance between the North-west and South-west. This alliance was consummated before the 2015 general elections. That is part of what produced the result that we have seen.
“Part of it was the solidarity that Northern governors gave to Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu. The governors of APC did well by insisting that power should return to the South and they matched their words with action. Without their support, things wouldn’t have turned the way it is today.”
He said Obi of the LP was a candidate for the future, saying, “Having said this, I will like to say the LP presidential candidate, Peter Obi, did not lose the election. “This is because to start a campaign in June and score this number of votes is very significant. I think we need to congratulate him. He is a candidate for the future.”
“As for Atiku, no one should be surprised; he was banking on Northern votes, but somewhere along the line he could not get the quantum of votes President Muhammed Buhari used to get from there. Therefore, his failure can be explained.
“Then the Atiku’s PDP went into the election divided. None of the other political parties went into the election as divided as the PDP, to the extent that 5 of the Governors worked against Atiku in the election. So, it contributed.
“Yes, there may be certain flaws here and there, but flawed elections are not peculiar to Nigeria. In America we also observed some foul play in their elections.”
Opposition parties’ role
A few political analysts who understand party management and elections said the major opposition political parties – PDP, NNPP, and LP – handed victory to the APC.
Speaking with this reporter, a political analyst who was once a national chairman of the National Democratic Party (NDP), Chudi Chukwuani, blamed the LP and PDP for APC’s victory.
According to Chukwuani, the inability of the PDP, LP, and other opposition parties to form a coalition gave victory to the APC.
He said, “It would have been better and the result would have been different if these political parties had formed a coalition. Recall that the only way APC was able to remove the ruling party in 2015 was because the APC led a coalition and it was that coalition that removed the PDP in 2015. So, one would have expected that the leaders of this party, especially the leadership of the PDP, would have organised an effective and efficient coalition that would help defeat the APC.
“This is because from the figures the APC scored in the election, Nigerians are obviously tired of them. But the majority of the votes, about 15 million, were shared between PDP and LP, and it gave APC, which had about nine million votes, the victory. So, if they had formed a coalition and scored this kind of vote they would have defeated the APC.”
On his part, a political analyst, Jide Ojo, said the reason the APC won was that the opposition political parties could not unite.
“APC was able to win because the opposition did not form a united front. Peter Obi, Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, and their parties are destiny helpers to Tinubu, because if they were united and filed one of them they would have defeated the APC.
“This is because APC wasn’t just a party of choice again. And you can see from the election that two third of the voters rejected APC if we go by the outcome of that election.
“So, those two third had it been united if only the G5 governors had worked for Atiku, if only Atiku, Obi and Kwankwaso had worked together we would have seen a repeat of what played out in 2015, when the opposition party defeated a ruling party. So, the factors that aided were simply the disunity in the opposition camp,” he said.
INEC
Chukwuani said further that the inability of INEC to keep to its word by uploading the results on the server allegedly influenced the outcome.
“My view is that this election was won and lost by the inability of INEC to keep to their word and follow their rules concerning uploading of their rules. A rule is to be followed, Nigerians and politicians, especially prepared for the election bearing in mind that INEC will follow the rules. Unfortunately, INEC failed to follow the rule and they refuse to upload the result as prescribed by its rule.
“So, the public perception is that this in a way gives victory to a certain party in some instances. To me not uploading results into the server helped determine how the election was won and lost.”
Religion, voter apathy…
On his part, Ojo identified religion, voter apathy, and bad governance as parts of factors that contributed to how the election was won and lost.
“A factor that contributed is that the majority of the voters didn’t come out. We have a voter turnout of less than 25%, if the majority had voted and they voted against the ruling party, then the ruling party would lose.
“Religion also plays a role. Let me say this, the Muslim – Muslim ticket won the victory for Tinubu and the APC.
“If you look at the performance of Tinubu/APC in the Northwest and the Northeast and the North Central, the votes of the Muslim communities,, in this case was very massive for the APC, which was the original intention of APC in flying the Muslim-Muslim ticket.
“You see, to win the presidential election you don’t need to win outrightly in all the states; all you need to target is where to get the votes. And Tinubu flew the Muslim-Muslim ticket to get the Northern votes primarily which was what happened.’
He added, “Another factor that would have come in is bad governance. People felt Buhari has been disappointing in leadership. But APC went for where the votes are in the core Muslim states like Sokoto, Zamfara, Kaduna, Katsina, Kano, Niger, Kwara, Jigawa. Tinubu’s target was his choice of running mate to sway votes for him from these states and that was what played out.
“Also look at where Peter Obi performed the miracles in the South-east and South-south, you could see that a Muslim Christian won’t have swayed votes for Tinubu from these zones if an Okowa that is a Christian and a sitting governor can not sway Delta state in his own favor.
“So, if not for the Muslim-Muslim ticket Tinubu would have been trailing the LP and PDP in most Southern states. And he would not get the bulk of the northern votes because the northerners would have split their votes between Atiku and Kwankwaso.
“Yes, Tinubu would have won the South-west, including Lagos. This is because it is not just the Igbo votes that made APC lose Lagos; it is the Christians’ votes as well that gave victory to Obi in Lagos and not the Igbo. This is because most Christian leaders campaigned against the Muslim-Muslim ticket.
“If you observe, many Christian leaders endorsed Peter Obi. So, he won in Lagos and did well in Christian-dominated states like Benue, Plateau, Nasarawa and a few other local governments. But he did not do well in Musilm-dominated areas.
“And these are the permutations that politicians work on when they are planning the choice of their presidential and vice-presidential candidates. And in terms of strategy for winning an election, you don’t adopt the same strategy as your opponent. This is because it will backfire. Irrespective of the imperfections of the election it still reflected the will of the people.”
