As the countdown to the 2023 general elections begins, notable Nigerians have declared their interests to succeed President Muhammadu Buhari across party lines. In this report, TOPE SUNDAY, ABDULRAHMAN and PAUL OKAH attempt to write about their chances.
The contenders
Although the list of those who are jostling to occupy the Aso Rock Villa after President Buhari is not yet exhaustive, political gladiators like former governor of Lagos state, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu; Governor David Umahi of Ebonyi state; former Abia state governor, Senator Orji Kalu, and former president of the Senate and former Secretary to the Government of the Federation, Senator Anyim Pius Anyim, have already declared their intentions to succeed the president in 2023. Others that have reportedly indicated interest in the race are the vice-president, Professor Yemi Osibanjo; former Vice President Atiku Abubakar; former President of the Senate, Dr. Bukola Saraki, and the Sokoto state governor, Aminu Tambuwal, among others.
Among the names listed, Senator Anyim, Alhaji Atiku, Dr. Saraki and Tambuwal are of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), while the rest are members of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC).
Tinubu
Born on March 29, 1952, Tinubu is, unarguably, one of the likely successors of President Buhari if the role he played to enthrone the president in office is anything to go by. The two-term governor of Lagos state was the first politician from the APC to officially announce his presidential ambition. Aside from this, he shocked Nigerians with his announcement which took place at the Presidential Villa. According to him, he had informed President Buhari of his intention, and the president has okayed it.
Going by Tinubu’s political records, since 1999 up till the 2019 general elections, he has also delivered his state to his political parties. He repeated the same in 2015 and 2019, respectively. This is even as he is said to have contacts and followers across the country, having reportedly groomed many politicians who are now calling the shots in their various states. If all this is to be counted on, he is likely to clinch the APC ticket and subsequently become Buhari’s successor.
However, according to pundits, two factors ranging from his health status to in-fighting in his political camp may serve as an encumbrance to his ambition.
Atiku
Adamawa state-born politician, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, is always one to look out for in the 2023 presidential election having carved a niche for himself in the nation’s political landscape. He was an elected governor in his home state of Adamawa in 1999 before he was asked to serve as the vice-president in the administration of President Olusegun Obasanjo from 1999 to 2007. He is adjudged to be one of the powerful vice-presidents in the history of the country. However, since he parted ways with his former boss, Chief Obasanjo, he had attempted to rule Nigeria on the platforms of the defunct Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) and PDP respectively, but failed. His performance in the 2019 presidential election where he polled 11,262,978 votes against the incumbent, who polled 15,191,847 votes speaks volumes of his acceptability.
Atiku, who declared his intention to succeed President Buhari on Wednesday, is obviously a major contender from the PDP.
Considering his age, the former vice-president obviously sees 2023 as his last chance to realise his dream of governing Nigeria. Many believe because of his network of friends, support and political clout accompanied by his wealth, the Wazirin Adamawa will throw his everything in the race to succeed this time around. Yet, some pundits believe that aside from age, another factor that may truncate Atiku’s ambition is the agitation for the ticket to be zoned to the South.
Also, it appears that governors on the platform of the PDP have hijacked the party structure from the former vice-president. This, according to pundits, was evident in the emergence of a new leadership of the party. On a larger note, if the age eventually disqualifies Tinubu as some Nigerians are campaigning against him, Atiku is not likely to scale the hurdle as well because he is already in his 70s.
Osinbajo
Born Oluyemi Oluleke Osinbajo, he is a Senior Advocate of Nigeria (SAN), professor, and politician. He is the incumbent vice-president and a member of the All Progressives Congress (APC). Previously, he was the Attorney-General of Lagos state from 1999 to 2007. He is adjudged to have worked harmoniously with his principal, President Buhari, and he is also rated as one of the scandal-free vice- presidents the country has had. Though he has not officially declared his intention to succeed his principal, many Nigerians and various pressure groups have been mounting pressure on him to run and he has neither rejected nor accepted the offer.
Across the board, he is believed to have created a clean record that will work in his favour. However, analysts are of the view that those rooting for him are outsiders who do know his political weight in the South-west.
Also, aside from being the AGF and commissioner for justice in Lagos, he had not served in any capacity in his home state of Ogun. The pundits are wondering how he would deliver his own state. They said, his foray into politics was at the instance of Tinubu and his political structure and wondered what would be his fate if contesting against his former boss, Tinubu.
Saraki
Dr. Bukola Saraki, a Kwara state-born politician, who was the president of the eighth Senate, and a two-term governor of Kwara state, is not a push over as far as the 2023 presidency is concerned. As a former chairman of the Nigerian Governors’ Forum, Saraki is popular. He is said to have contacts across party lines. Also, he inherited a stronger political dynasty from his late father, Dr. Abubakar Olusola Saraki.
Analysts are of the view that zoning may not work in his favour because the incumbent national chairman of his party, Dr. Iyorchia Ayu, is also from the North- central where he hails from.
Umahi
Ebonyi state governor Engr. David Nweze Umahi is presently in the eye of the storm, following a ruling by Justice Inyang Ekwo of the Federal High Court in Abuja on Tuesday sacking him and his deputy, Barrister Kelechi Igwe, over their defections from the PDP to the APC. Be that as it may, for his supporters in APC, Umahi is the most qualified candidate for the presidency come 2023, for reasons they are always ready to provide.
According to APC loyalists, especially in Ebonyi state, Umahi has transformed the state to a Mecca of sorts, with the construction of flyovers, concrete roads, shopping mall of international standard, an international market, among other projects they claim have put Ebonyi on the map of the world.
In November 2020, Umahi defected from the PDP to the APC, citing alleged marginalisation of the South-east by the former ruling party and declared that the Igbo should be given their pride of place in Nigeria by being allowed to rule the country.
In January this year, after a meeting with President Buhari, Umahi told newsmen that he intimated the president on his willingness to run for president in order to succeed him, saying it was time the Igbo produced a president.
In an exclusive interview with our reporter, a political analyst, Peter Ohabunwa, said many factors are against Umahi including the party on which platform he intends to run.
He said, “Coming down to the South-east, it is no longer news that the region has never produced a president, apart from Dr. Nnamdi Azikiwe, who was a ceremonial head of state between 1963 and 1966. Since then, it has been a no-go area for Ndigbo to rule Nigeria. This anomaly of Ndigbo not ruling Nigeria has led to a lot of agitations as the North has ruled the country more than the South, with the South-east always edged out whenever the seat is zoned to the South.
“Narrowing down the list of the aspirants who have already declared interest in the presidential election, Governor of Ebonyi state, David Umahi, is the least favoured, majorly as a result of his being new in the ruling APC. Let’s face reality, even if the APC eventually zones the presidency to the South-east, which I don’t see happening, anyway, you don’t expect the ruling party to adopt Umahi as its presidential candidate.
On his part, a human rights activist, Mike Onyebuchi, told Blueprint Weekend that it is long overdue for the South-east to produce a president, arguing that Umahi can transform the nation the way he did in Ebonyi if elected president.
“I am one of those supporting the agitation for the South-east to produce a president come 2023 or be allowed to secede and form their own government if they are not found worthy to rule Nigeria by the powers that be. It is disheartening to repeat that the South-east is yet to rule this country, while the North and South-west have ruled multiple times, including the South-south which produced the immediate past president, Goodluck Jonathan.
“In fact, from the array of politicians declaring interest in the presidency, I throw my weight behind Governor Umahi from Ebonyi state, who has proven that the government can bring developments to the people with meagre resources. I come from Abia state, but I am always impressed whenever I visit Ebonyi to realise that the state has been transformed by the present governor, through the development of infrastructure. Ebonyi is no longer what it used to be in the years past as it is presently competing with other developed cities in terms of infrastructure.”
Anyim
The former President of the Senate and former Secretary to the Government of the Federation, Chief Anyim Pius Anyim, is believed by many in the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) to be a major contender.
He sees him as the right candidate to replace President Buhari next year, following what they claim to be his achievements as a former No.3 citizen.The caliber of people that turned up at his 61st birthday on February 19, across party divide, has become a reference point to many of Senator Anyim’s supporters.
However, while the opposition party is yet to zone its presidency to any region, some Nigerians are of the opinion that Anyim will clinch the ticket if the PDP zones the ticket to the South-east.
Tambuwal
Alhaji Aminu Tambuwal, the incumbent Sokoto state governor, is one of the major contenders for the PDP presidential ticket. Tambuwal, who finished second in the 2018 presidential primaries, is aiming to take another shot at the presidency. As the chairman of the PDP Governors’ Forum, he had in the past three years visited almost all the states in the six geo-political zones as well as top leaders of the country including former Presidents Olusegun Obasanjo and Ibrahim Babangida to sell his ambition.
Tambuwal, a former speaker of the House of Representatives, has the political network and the will to enjoy the support of his fellow governors. And with his position as the chairman of the PDP Governors’ Forum, he cannot be ruled out. However, the aspiration of Atiku Abubakar is considered as a threat to his ambition having defeated him in the 2018 presidential primaries of the PDP held in Port Harcourt, Rivers state.
Kalu
While many see Anyim Pius Anyim of the PDP and David Nweze Umahi of the APC as major contenders, the former two-term governor of Abia state and the Chief Whip of the Senate, Orji Uzo Kalu, is regarded as a pretender as it is believed that the Igbere-born APC stalwart will rather prefer to retire in the Senate to wasting time in another presidential ambition.
In January, following the declaration of interest by Tinubu and Umahi, Kalu told reporters that he was ready to contest for the presidential ticket if the party zones it to the South.
He said: “I do not see Tinubu’s aspiration having any effect on the President of Nigeria coming from the Igbo area, because we are talking based on what Nigeria should be. We are talking based on what people should believe. Obasanjo has been president for eight years. Osinbajo is doing eight years as vice-president. And no Igbo man since independence has been a democratically elected president. So, it is always good to think of what is reasonable and what will be more sellable.
“I’m the most prepared presidential candidate in Nigeria. I’m capable health-wise, I’m capable as a person, and I’m capable in my pocket. I’m capable of facing anybody, but the party is supreme. I only wait for APC as a party.
“For me, contesting for president is not the issue. The issue is who is going to lead the country into an economic miracle, into a turnaround. I’m not against Tinubu. If it’s zoned to his area and the party said he should go. Well, the party is supreme. I’m only waiting for the party.”
The caveat by Kalu to wait for the APC to zone the presidency has made pundits to believe that he is only a pretender waiting in the wings to scuttle the plans of the South-east and not really serious about pursuing a presidential ambition, especially as he failed in his bid to succeed Obasanjo in 2007, as the Progressive People’s Alliance (PPA) presidential candidate.
