Following the heavy loss suffered by the Kwara state chapter of the ruling PDP in last Saturday’s Presidential and National Assembly elections, UMAR BAYO ABDULWAHAB examines the party’s chances ahead of the March 9 governorship and state assembly elections.
For observers of the unfolding political events in the state, there seems to be no end in sight to the unfolding drama as the two main political parties, the ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and opposition All Progressive Congress (APC) evolve different strategies to outsmart one another.
This is because the result of last Saturday’s Presidential and National Assembly polls was a big blow for the party and the Saraki’s political camp which had dominated the political landscape of the state for over 40 years.
Events of the recent past, however, have been a litmus test for those in the camp of the national leader of PDP, Dr Bukola Saraki, who is also the Senate president.
Prior to the just concluded elections last Saturday, politicking in the state has taken another dimension with the announcement that leaders of the PDP had signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with political leaders of Kwara north to effect a power shift arrangement to the zone by 2023.
It was an announcement that caught many stakeholders unaware coming barely less than a month to the commencement of the 2029 general elections.
By the agreement, the party’s gubernatorial candidate, Hon Abdulrazaq Atunwa, would do only one term if PDP wins the forthcoming election.
The hard nut
If the zone key into this latest agreement, the PDP would appear to have cracked what seems to be a hard nut in the zone which is seriously aggrieved for not being considered for the number one job since 1999.
The director general of the PDP campaign council and former minister of national planning, Professor Abubakar Olanrewaju Suleiman, and the state chairman of PDP had said the party successfully flagged-off its campaign in the area and traversed the length and breadth of Kwara-north without hitches.
‘‘The flag-off is just to put it to you that the PDP is Kwara state party; people still love the party. We went to Bode- Saadu to do the flag-off, you saw the mammoth crowd yourself , we went there peacefully and came out ppeacefull; the mammoth crowd was one that we have never experienced before in the history of the state,’’ Suleiman said .
The beautiful bride
By every sense, Kwara-north is the beautiful bride in the state during this election season. Since the restoration of democracy in 1999, the zone has not been able to produce the chief governor even when it has qualified persons.
All expectations were that 2019 would be the turn of the since the central produced the governor (1999-2011) and Kwara south has also ruled from 2011-2019.
However, rising opposition to the continued domination of the political landscape by the Saraki political structure according to analyst might change the permutations, both for the PDP and the opposition All Progressive Congress (APC).
APC holds on to central
In the build up to the governorship primaries that produced flag bearers in 2019 governorship race, Kwara central remains the best place for APC to pick its gubernatorial candidate because of population and the need to, in the words of the people, teach Saraki a political lesson using his own people and kinsmen. The central controls about 50 percent of the overall votes in the state. For the PDP, the central is best in order to checkmate the incursion of APC to a traditionally safe area.
At the end of the day, Kwara North was sacrificed by both parties. The people expectedly reacted badly.
The PDP, having a central leadership, has attempted to manage the fall out by entering into agreement for a power shift to the zone in 2023.
During those weeks, there were daily protests by APC members from the north senatorial district who felt cheated by the arrangements to pick a Kwara central person AbdulRahman Abdulrasaq as gubernatorial candidate of the party.
The bitterness among the APC members stemmed from the belief that having escaped the ‘dictatorship’ of the Saraki empire, their voices would be genuinely heard in their own party. Having realised that their agitations could not change the permutations from Abuja, party leaders eventually agreed to sheathe their sword and work for the victory of their party.
Consolation
But against all disappointment, there was still an expectation that the zone would be adequately compensated for the loss. Available compensation slots include deputy governor, speaker of the assembly and Secretary to the State Government even though these are not new positions to politicians from the zone who at one time or the other occupied those offices
While everyone seemed to have relaxed and accepted that the zone would wait for another eight years, the Saraki dynasty came out with what members described as a game changer; an agreement that does not only compensate them for the moment but also assured that they will not have to wait another eight years before getting their rights.
Regrets
Perhaps what will be Saraki’s regret at the moment is that in 2015, he went to support the APC without a written agreement on who takes what at the end of the battle; therefore, when he aspired to be Senate president, he met stiff resistance from the same people he had helped to power.
To convince the people of the zone and establish the fact that he too has learned his lesson in political negotiation, Saraki ensured that the new arrangement was documented, signed, witnessed by traditional rulers and shown to the media.
The new deal
For Kwara- north, that won’t be the case, according to Prof Abubakar.
“About an hour ago, the PDP Kwara state leadership just completed a meeting with leaders of thought from the Kwara north Senatorial District. The meeting was also attended by leaders of the party across the state.
“The sole purpose of the meeting was for us to have an understanding on specific terms on issues bordering on power shift, cohesion, giving sense of belonging and inclusiveness to our people across all the three districts.
“The conclusion of the meeting is that there will be power shift to Kwara north in 2023. Also, the positions of speaker and SSG have been zoned to Kwara north in the current dispensation.
“The understanding has been committed to writing and signed by all key stakeholders who included Dr Saraki, Governor Abdulfatai Ahmed, gubernatorial candidate of the party, Rt Hon Atunwa, speaker of the state House of Assembly, Dr Alli Ahmed, director general of the Mandate 2019, Prof Sulaimon, chairman of the party, Engr Kola Shittu and other leaders in the three Senatorial districts.
“Traditional rulers from Kwara North Senatorial District and Emir of Ilorin, Alhaji Ibrahim Sulu Gambari were consulted on the understanding and they gave their royal blessing to the terms and contents.
“In their speeches at the meeting, the traditional rulers expressed support for any move that will ensure equity, justice and unity among all the various zones in the state. They also noted that their decision to serve as witnesses is based on the need to ensure that political leaders honour and respect the contents of the understanding and work for peace and progress of the state before, during and after the general elections.
“Also, in return, the people of Kwara North have agreed to deliver the bloc vote from the zone to the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in the general elections. We believe this understanding is aimed at re-enforcing the unity, harmony and even development of our dear state.”
Putting APC at a cross-road
As it were, the permutation from those behind this latest move would be that the APC would be in dilemma believing that the party cannot pledge only one term and sign such an agreement for its gubernatorial candidate, a situation which analysts say would effectively push opportunities for its members in the north to 2027.
