With less than two months to end of President Muhammadu Buhari-led All Progressives Congress (APC) administration, ABDULRAHMAN ZAKARIYAU and BENJAMIN UMUTEME, examines the administration’s strides in security, economy, and anti-corruption.
The President Muhammadu Buhari-led federal government will on May 29, 2023 complete its eight-year tenure of steering Nigeria’s ship.
On this day, the era of a retired General and professor of law will come to an end. And it will usher in the administration of a trained accountant, former Lagos state Governor, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu as President, alongside his deputy, a banker and former Governor of Borno state, Senator Kashim Shettima.
The Buhari/Osinbajo ticket on the platform of the All Progressives Congress (APC) defeated the incumbent President, Goodluck Ebele Jonathan of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in the 205 general elections.
In line with yearnings and aspirations of many Nigerians at the time, the APC presidential candidate promised to tackle insecurity and corruption as well as improve the country’s economy.
“The fundamental issue facing this country is insecurity and the problem of the economy which was being made worse by corruption. I assure you that we are going to finally assemble a competent team of Nigerians to efficiently manage the country,” Buhari vowed.
Four years after, in 2018 during the build-up to the 2019 presidential election, President Buhari, who were seeking re-election alongside his deputy as his running mate, declared that they have done well and deserved to be re-elected to complete the good work they had started.
In one of his remarks while appealing to Nigerians for support for the administration’s second term in office Vice President Osinbanjo said, “There has been a lot of damage to the environment in terms of business and all that, but correcting that would take a while, I think that for anyone who is in office, four-year term would be too small because you have all manner of plans and things to deliver. But my take is that the moment you have the right people and you put the right structures in place, you can do a lot, and I think we’ve been blessed with an incredibly good team.”
Consequently, over 15 million Nigerians voted for the re-election of the Buhari/Osinbanjo duo for another four years in office.
The administration after its re-election in 2019 had promised to consolidate on the successes achieved in the areas of fighting insecurity n corruption as well as improving the country’s economy.
As administration’s eight-year tenure draws to an end Nigerians have continued to ask questions on how they fared in tackling corruption and insecurity as well as in improving the economy bearing in mind that it is one thing to make promises and another thing to fulfil the promises.
‘General improvement in all areas’
Speaking on the three priorities of his administration at a function recently, President Muhammadu Buhari insisted that they had made impact on security, the economy, and the anti-corruption war.
He said, “As you are all aware, this administration came to office determined to make an impact in three main areas: security, building a sustainable economy, and fight against corruption.
“We can say that recent positive developments in these areas have shown that despite the challenges on the ground, we can see a general improvement in all three areas.
“In the area of corruption, as you are all aware, I am determined to ensure that we do not have a repeat of what has gone on in previous administrations and we have taken a strong stand against pervasive corruption.
“This administration has also focused on security by repositioning our national security to perform their duties effectively. We have equally embarked on some crucial changes in their funding, structure, and modes of operation.
“With the launching/empowerment of the Police Trust Fund, this administration swung into action after taking the assessment of needs for possible interventions in the provision of logistics and infrastructural needs of the Force.”
Govt prioritised security
Prior to the 2015 general elections activities of the terror group like Boko Haram, which was seeking to impose Islamic Law on Nigeria, was at their peak.
Reports indicate that over 13,000 Nigerians were killed, just as businesses and property worth billions of naira were also destroyed. This is as militancy, banditry, and other violent crimes were thriving.
Over 18,000 Nigerians were also reported to have been displaced and thousands were held captive by Boko Haram and other criminals, just as towns in the North-west were taken over by the insurgents.
Security and military personnel were demoralised and killed on daily basis as a result of poor equipment and lack of synergy.
The situation was so bad that Nigeria was rated 151 out of 162 in the global peace index and number four in the world’s most terrorised nations in other words global terrorism index (GTI).
Expectations were very high, within and outside the country, on President Buhari to as a retired General to tackle insecurity squarely.
Speaking on the achievements and shortcomings of the outgoing administration, a security expert and Managing Director, Beacon Consulting Limited, Kabir Adam, said there was an improvement in security, however, there was a lot that the administration needed to have done.
He said the Buhari administration was the first in the history of Nigeria to conduct a ministerial review, which has now been institutionalised.
He said, “Clearly, both the executive and the legislative arms of government have prioritised security. Now, as a result of that prioritisation several things were achieved, the most prominent of which is the increase in the number of security personnel, even though the stated objective was not met.
“President Buhari promised that every year, he will recruit in the police an additional 10,000 personnel. Sadly, that has not been achieved and it was because two agencies under its administration were fighting each other to the extent they went to court, that is the Police Service Commission (PSC) and the Office of Inspector General of Police. The matter reached the court, and it’s still in the court, as it were, at the moment. However, 20,000 of these personnel have been recruited.”
The security consultant also stated that, “The military, we don’t know the exact number but we know that military cadets and other officers probably running into about 10,000 have been recruited to increase the population of soldiers that we have the moment with the paramilitary organisations.
“The most significant achievement, I think, given the area of hardware that was purchased for almost all the security organisations, both the military and the police, we’ve seen an increase in the number of platforms and weaponry and other equipment that is at their disposal for various elements of their work that they do.”
According to the security expert, “Overall, quite instrumental in terms of the achievement, even laws that backed the operations of most of these organisations, we’ve seen a review of the laws, a good example is the Police Act, which was reviewed under the President Buhari’s administration since colonial times, 1960.
Adam said contrary to what has been reported in some sections of the media, the Buhari/Osinbajo administration has dealt with terrorism squarely, adding that killing has significantly reduced.
He stated, “So definitely, if you pick terrorism as an example, and you single out the North East Islamic group, the Boko Haram and Islamic State’s West Africa Province (ISWAP) their capacity has been reduced tremendously.
“You can argue that their capacity has reduced that the situation in North-east has improved to a point that even international organisations like the Global Terrorism Index (GTI) have reflected that improvement. However, sadly, we have seen a southward movement of big groups into places like Kaduna, parts of Katsina state, and Niger state. So yeah, to that extent, I would say there is an improvement.
“The only challenge is that new security frontier, including the separationist agitation and banditry that was not existent. While in terms of numbers, if we look at the fatality figures under the Buhari administration compared to that of former President Goodluck Jonathan throughout the eight years, it’s been significantly lower.
“It was only last year that it reached around 11,000. And it was mainly because of the elections. But before then it was around 5,000 or 6,000. Under Jonathan, it was around 13,000. So clearly there has been a security improvement but, there is a lot that needs to be done.”
Identifying areas where the Buhari/Osinbajo falls short the security analyst said, “Despite all of these things I’ve mentioned, there are still incremental challenges. Number one is the inability to address the desire of Nigerians to see the decentralisation of security. Most Nigerians are desirous to see decentralised security, but the Buhari administration could not address that.
He stated, “Another thing is the inability to block or reduce the gap between the federal security structure and the state or regional security structure. The reason why we’re seeing a lot of attacks and killings at the rural centre is that there is a gap and vulnerability. “Most security organisations are focused or concentrated at the federal level in urban centres. This administration was not successful in reducing this federal concentration.
“The third one is the inability of the administration to use monitoring and evaluation as well as auditing function to reduce corruption and strengthen the capacity of the security organisation.
“And then lastly, we haven’t seen enough consequences and you know the penalty for lack of functionality or efficiency within the security sector. So, several times we’ve seen failures. And we’ve not seen any kind of punishment meted out for those failures.”
He expressed hope that the incoming administration would continue from where the President Buhari-led administration will stop.
Govt deserves commendation on revenue -Olamilekan
Speaking on how the administration fared in the area of economy a political economist Adefolarin Olamilekan and a economic expert, Friday Efih, said during Buhari’s eight-year-tenure the economy had gone from good to bad, then worse.
In separate interviews with Blueprint Weekend they noted that the outgoing administration has hugely invested in infrastructure which will show in the future and formulate policies that strengthen the economy.
The analysts said despite the huge resources invested in agriculture, and the increase in revenue generation, the Buhari/Osinbajo administration could not salvage the state of the economy as many Nigerians expected.
Olamilekan observed that, “Many of the administration’s economic policies are elite oriented, not pro-poor economic development policy.
According to the political economist, “The review of the government’s Economic Recovery Growth Plan (ERGDP-2016) portrays a policy thrust meant well for the people. However, the burden of ensuring full implementation of the same became a mirage.
“Each of the policy items focusing on both the micro and macroeconomics was not properly deployed to rescue or revival the economy as envisaged by the government. Rather, it was a policy working against itself,” he added.
Olamilekan, who noted that under their watch fiscal and monetary policies work at cross purposes, said the administration deserved commendation, especially for fostering a tight nose on government revenues, during the period of escaping three economic recessions.
Continuing he said, “One must also highlight the regime’s firm stand during the covid-19 pandemic era.
“Nevertheless, the recent cash crunch and cashless policy dealt a big blow to Nigeria’s economy with large, big, and small businesses counting their losses.
“More so, the government’s failure to tackle insecurity hampered food insecurity and food inflationary pressure. Failure to address also contributed to the economic challenges is still the same failure recorded by its predecessor, struggling between 3000mgwts and 5000mgwts.”
He lambasted the administration for leaving over 133 million dimensional poor Nigerians behind, after promising to reduce the poverty index.
According to him, “With double-digit inflationary pressure of 21.89 per cent, staggeringly unemployment 36 per cent and 18 per cent interest rate and the huge gaps created in the housing sector, as well as the conditions of deplorable roads this administration failed to salvage the economy.”
Administration committed resources to agric – Efih
On his part, Efih said the economy under the out-going administration has been good, bad, and worse.
The economist expert said, “In the area of agriculture, this administration committed resources to drive the sector with the hope that it would be a huge revenue earner for the government and also make the country self-sufficient in food production, especially rice.
“We are all witnesses to the giant stride of CBN’s anchor borrowers program. But unfortunately, the activities of bandits and terrorists stopped farmers from going to their farms for fear of being killed,” he noted.
Efih commended the administration in the area of revenue, adding that due to the innovation of the current Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS) management led by Muhammed Nami, the country was gradually and consistently moving away from over-dependence on oil.
According to him, “Over the last two quarters of 2022, we have seen from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) GDP report that non-oil revenue has been contributing more to the GDP. Last year, tax revenue collection crossed the N10 trillion mark-a-historic first in the country’s history.”
He, however, lamented that, “Lack of a proper fiscal planning/coordination has only left Nigerians worse off, with a recent report putting the number of poor Nigeria at 133 million.
‘Administration failed to internalise corruption war’
On how the Buhari-led administration fared in the fight against corruption Olamilekan said: “The government tried much to arrest the monster called corruption, but failed to internalise the fight against corruption from top to bottom.”
According to him, “Because they failed to maximise the anti-corruption crusades amongst the political class and top public servants, there was no meaningful result achieved in stopping corrupt practices in our public procurement process.
“Thereby creating huge gaps for wastage of government resources and misdirection of policy action, he added.
On his part, in an interview with Blueprint Weekend the Chief Executive Officer, Society Safety Network (SSN), Amb. Abdulrahman Agboola, commended the administration for strengthening anti-corruption agencies.
He said, “The administration strengthen anti-corruption agencies and even formulate laws and policies for the whistleblower to enhance the agencies in the fight against corruption.
“All these yielded some positive results, consequently many have been convicted and properties worth billions of naira have been recovered. So, some successes were achieved.”
On whether fight against corruption was internalised he said, “We don’t have the details yet, when the next administration kick starts it will be clearer but generally they have done well.
“The next administration needs to sustain this fight and block all the loopholes to fight corruption to stand still.”
According to him, “Another area where the administration got it wrong in the fight against corruption is that their economic policies made life difficult for Nigerians, there by encouraging corrupt practices.”
