Nigerians in the last three weeks have been going through difficult times in accessing physical cash, as both old and new N200, N500 and N1, 000 are very scarce as a result of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN’s) cashless policy. Exactly one week to the Presidential and National Assembly elections, the citizens express doubts that the elections would be held. ABDULRAHMAN ZAKARIYAU takes a look at the scenario in this report.
In its efforts to sustain and strengthen the economy, enhance the fight against corruption and sustain the gains in the fight against terrorism, insecurity and minimise the monetisation of the forthcoming polls, the President Muhammadu Buhari-led administration directed the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to re-design the N200, N500, and N1, 000 bank notes.
Consequently, the apex bank directed Nigerians to deposit old N200, N500, and N1, 000 notes in the banks on or before January 31, 2023. However, after a series of public uproars about the unavailability of the new notes, to ease Nigerians’ pain, the CBN governor, Godwin Emefiele, extended the deadline till February 10, 2023.
Despite the extension, a few old notes remained in circulation, more than the very few new notes seen around. The scramble for both old and new notes has been rather chaotic as citizens flood banks demanding new notes.
A week ago, the Supreme Court entered an interim order against the CBN, urging the apex bank against its February 10 deadline. The Naira swap and scarcity have led to the breakdown of law and order in Ogun, Oyo, Delta, and Edo states with many lives lost and businesses affected. This is met with criticisms with many Nigerians expressing a divergent view on the negative and positive impact it will have on the 2023 elections.
‘It won’t stop vote-buying’
In her view, the president, Women in Politics Forum, Barrister Ebere Ifendu, said the persistent cash crunch will aid vote-buying and voter apathy. Ifendu in a phone chat with Blueprint Weekend said the cash crunch will affect the forthcoming elections, especially the number of persons that will go out to vote.
“This is because they need money to move around and take care of other things before talking about voting. So, we they have cash problems they may be discouraged from voting. Those who registered outside where they reside, will find it difficult to move. So, give and take it will affect the turnout of voters, especially those that will have to travel to exercise their franchise,” she said.
She added, “Well, I don’t want to just put it on women, it will affect the turnout. So this means that it affects men and affects women. And it will affect People Living With Disabilities. That’s a simple truth.
“Those who want to buy votes have planned for it a long time ago. They will find their way, even if it is to spend dollars. The cash crunch will encourage vote buying. The scarcity of funds will aid vote buying as most people need money for survival and these politicians will have access to cash.
“There is an urgent need for the CBN to make the cash available because the problem is the scarcity of cash. Whatever benefits they thought they would have gained from this, it seems they have failed. So, let the money be available.”
Experts’ takes
On their parts, a political analyst, a former national chairman of the National Democratic Party (NDP), Chudi Chukwuani, and the chairman of the Inter-Party Advisory Council (IPAC), Engr. Sani Yabagi, said the policy is ill-timed. According to them, the policy is a recipe for crisis and may affect the conduct of the 2023 elections.
In a phone chat with this reporter, Chukwuani said, “Of course, the Naira scarcity is a threat to the 2023 elections. First of all, a lot of people are angry in the nation. There’s going to be massive voter apathy. This is because when you deny people the right to even eat for weeks, then you now wake up and tell them to start going to the polls to come back into power, most of them will not.
“There’s anger in this nation. They claim that the reason for this policy is to checkmate people that have been warehousing money. They know these people that are warehousing money, identify them and go after them.”
He added, “What has happened now, the people that are being punished are ordinary Nigerians. Nigerians doing their everyday business are being punished.
Nigerians are already frustrated and this could trigger anarchy in the country. Any small argument at the polling unit that is not managed well may resolve into a serious crisis.”
Yabagi, on his part, said cash is important and if the situation “is not urgently addressed it may affect the elections.”
He said, “I believe that the government in this exercise of election is significant because the government controls everything about the elections. If the government controls everything including security agencies, INEC, and political parties and the same government introduces a policy that is to bring about this unnecessary crisis, then you need to ask yourself a question, is the government sensitive?
“This is because if you have everything and everything depends on you, and the outcome of it will define you, then the same government is responsible for creating a policy that will create a crisis. Then something must be wrong.”
Continuing, he said, “I don’t know what they want to achieve with this. But what I’ve seen doesn’t make any sense to me. It doesn’t make any sense because if you have the primary institution of the government, the three arms of the government are against each other. This is a recipe for crisis.
“You know, we have the judiciary on one side saying something different, the National Assembly on another side also saying something different, and the executive also saying/doing something different. So, the cash crunch is not just a threat to the 2023 elections, it is a recipe for a crisis.”
An NGO’s opinion
On his view, the chairman of Partners for Electoral Reform and member of the Working Group of Watching The Vote, YIAGA Africa, Ezenwa Nwagwu, said the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) will go through a crisis to conduct this election.
Speaking with this reporter via telephone, he said the cash crunch from the election administration could bring about excuses, “excuses that vendors could give that they were not able to access cash to be able to get fuel to move vehicles that will move materials from one point to another.”
He said, “From the point of election administration, there is going to be a challenge it will take a pitch miracle for INEC to be able to overcome the possible nightmare that that could bring in terms of vendor and INEC relationship. The reality is that INEC will sweat to be able to pull this electron through under this circumstance.
“And for security, we are going to have a challenge of movements and the issue of welfare of the men and women that will be providing security for this election and maintaining law and order. Nigeria now has handed people who ordinarily are inefficient an excuse to be sold. If you pay the allowances, and it is not on the table payment, it is difficult for them to access the money in the banks and the PoS.”
He said further, “For the media and civil societies, of course, the operational burden that all of these will put on those that will be monitoring this election will be huge.
“I think that this policy at this material time no matter how anybody wants to look at it is witchcraft combined with wickedness. So, it is ill-timed. So, this election must not fail because the failure of an election is the failure of law and order.
“To commence a monetary policy at the tail end of an administration and while preparing for an election is ill-advised. For those who are involved in election administration to pretend that everything is going well is not true. They need someone to speak up that the INEC will have to go through the cash crisis to conduct the elections.”
