Nigeria has in the last few days seen resurgence in Covid-19 infection cases across the country. SAMSON BENJAMIN in this report looks at the possibility of a second lockdown against the backdrop of the nation’s fragile economy.
Nigeria on Friday last week recorded its highest daily Covid-19 infection figure since the beginning of the outbreak in late February. According to the Centre for Disease Control (NCDC), the country recorded 796 new cases, smashing the previous highest daily record of 745 reported on June 19.
Also, on Thursday last week, 675 new cases were recorded, one of the highest daily tally in six months. The nation’s coronavirus cases have been on the rise since early December with infection rates still concentrated in Lagos and Abuja.
In the last nine days, nearly 5,000 infections had been reported, indicating a possible resurgence in cases after weeks of low numbers. The rising numbers put the nation on the precipice of what could be its worst stretch to date in the pandemic amid indications that a second wave is beginning. With the 796 new cases, the total number of Covid-19 infections rose to 72,140. The death toll from the disease remained 1,190 after nobody died in the last 24 hours.
Meanwhile, of the over 72,000 persons infected by the disease in the country, 65,712 have been discharged from hospitals after treatment. Hospitalisations have also been on the rise as active cases in the country have risen from about 3,000 to over 5, 000 due to rise in new infections.
Second wave, NCDC’s warning
In the meantime, the NCDC has warned that the second wave of Covid-19 pandemic may be inevitable following an increase in the number of cases across the country. Consequently, the centre issued a public health advisory, which provides an update on the current situation, response activities and recommends measures to reduce the risk of spread in the country.
The director-general of NCDC, Dr. Chikwe Ihekweazu, said: “Since the beginning of September to the end of November 2020, Nigeria has recorded a gradual increase in the number of confirmed Covid-19 cases in the country. However, in the last week (30th of November to the 6th of December) our surveillance system has recorded a sharp increase in cases. The average number of daily cases recorded in the last week was higher than was recorded between September and November.”
Why the resurgence?
The chairman, Experts Review Committee on Covid-19, Oyewale Tomori, in his reaction, told Blueprint Weekend in a telephone conversation that since the virus arrived on February 27, it had not left the country.
“A major reason for a second wave is predicated largely on the fact most people have abandoned safety precautions in the false belief that it is no longer prevalent.
“Despite the warning, observations showed that many Nigerians perceive the earlier decline in the number of Covid-19 cases in the country as the end of the pandemic. With the markets, schools and, worship centres in operations, movement across states unrestricted and local flight/international flights in operation, a lot of people have thrown caution to the wind and now live as though the country has suddenly become immune to the pandemic.
“In the markets, commuter buses, offices and some social gatherings, the safety protocols advised by the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control (NCDC) are brazenly and increasingly being defied,” he said.
Also, expressing fears for a likely second wave spike, a member of the Lagos state Covid-19 Response Team, Prof. Akin Osibogun, told journalists in an interview that the best approach is to be prepared and not to let down guards.
“Many countries including Nigeria are worried about a possible second wave of the Covid-19. The preventive approach of promoting facemasks, social distancing, hand-washing and limiting crowd events are still recommended,” he said.
FG’s actions
In its reaction, the federal government has placed health workers on the alert amidst rising concerns about a possible resurgence of the pandemic. Accordingly, the government has taken steps to re-open some isolation centres hitherto closed during the waning days of the first wave of the pandemic.
The Minister of Health, Dr. Osagie Ehanire, disclosed this in Abuja during Thursday’s briefing of the Presidential Taskforce PTF on Covid-19.
He said; “While we strive for the best, we must prepare for a possible second wave which we must ensure, does not get to be worse than what we have seen so far, judging from what we observe in other countries. The US, UK and other countries are going through very difficult times, and we do sympathise with them. To prepare ourselves, I have directed that all isolation and treatment centres, which were hitherto closed due to reduced patient load, be prepared for re-opening and the staff complement put on alert.
“The increase in infections stems certainly from rising community transmission to a large extent, but also to a lesser extent from travelers entering Nigeria, among whom we have recorded 87 positive cases arriving in the country, as against 59 in the previous week. This number can increase as the volume of travelers rises, especially as people return home for the Christmas and New Year holidays. To ensure that we further contain imported cases, Port health officers at Points of entry have been directed to be vigilant and diligent in screening travelers arriving in Nigeria, especially from high burden countries.”
Lockdown jitters
The Presidential Task Force on Covid-19 led by the Secretary to the Government of the Federation, Boss Mustapha, has regularly warned on the possibility of another lockdown because of the general carefree attitude of Nigerians to the core protocols required to contain the pandemic.
FCT’s initiative
Meanwhile, the Minister of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Malam Muhammad Musa Bello, has threatened to declare another round of lockdown in the territory if residents continue to ignore adherence to health protocols as second wave of the pandemic.
The minister, who spoke on Monday, at an emergency stakeholders’ review meeting on the second wave of the pandemic, expressed worry over non-compliance by residents to the safety protocols. Bello noted that the second wave of the virus has become deadlier as lives are already being lost even as he called on the residents to adhere to all protocols stipulated to prevent the spread of the virus.
He asked them to maintain social distancing, wash their hands and wear face masks, warning that declaring another round of lockdown will be detrimental to the city’s economy. The FCT Emergency Stakeholders’ Review Meeting is coming on the heels of the death of Leadership Newspapers publisher, Sam Nda-Isaiah, of complications allegedly arising from the pandemic.
Similarly, the call for caution was emphasised recently by the Lagos state Commissioner for Health, Dr. Akin Abayomi. Abayomi, a frontline leader of the fight against the pandemic, who warned in a statement that: “The continuous flagrant disregard of safety guidelines by citizens heralds danger and may lead to a second wave of infections in Lagos,” adding that “a resurgence of cases in Lagos may lead to the reversal of the strategically-calculated measures put in place by government to open up the economy.”
Caution
However, in a chat with this reporter, an economist, Dr. Udeh Udoka, of the department of economics, University of Nigeria, Nsukka, said the nation’s economy “cannot survive another lockdown.”
He said: “We acknowledge the importance of these warnings by the health authorities and scientific experts. Even though Nigeria and most of Africa have been fortunate enough to escape the benumbing infection rates and second waves that have challenged the more advanced continents of America, Europe and Asia, our people must be constantly kept aware that the pandemic is still very much with us.
“However, the issue of another possible lockdown does not arise. Wisdom dictates that the delicate balance between fighting the virus and keeping the economy going to avoid the ‘hunger virus’ is maintained.
“In our own case, the scale has since tipped against the economy, and the hunger virus is ravaging the populace. The Nigerian chapter of the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) says that the six-week lockdown between April and May this year zapped $16 billion loss to our GDP.
“The modest efforts being made by the government to steer the economy from imminent recession was thwarted by the three-week #EndSARS protests and subsequent burning and looting of private and public property by hoodlums.
“The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), has just announced that Nigeria has plunged into another recession within five years. The skyrocketing inflation rate (especially food inflation) and price increases in power and petroleum products have left the populace reeling and gasping for survival.
“We must gather and focus all efforts to economic recovery and the speedy exit of the recession. Apart from the fact that we now understand the coronavirus pandemic much better and can live with it, there are also several vaccines waiting to be deployed worldwide. Adherence to Covid-19 protocols should become second nature to everyone even after the pandemic. It is a sure way of keeping infections at bay.”
President Buhari’s take
Similarly, President Muhammadu Buhari recently said the country’s economy is too fragile for a fresh Covid-19 lockdown. The president, therefore, urged Nigerians to obey all protocols recommended by health authorities to curtail the spread of the lethal coronavirus.
Buhari, who stated this via his verified Twitter handle, said compliance with Covid-19 protocols by all Nigerians is crucial to avert a second wave of the pandemic in the country.
“Looking at the trends in the other countries, we must do all we can to avert a second wave of Covid-19 in Nigeria. We must make sure that our cases, which have gone down, do not rise again. Our economy is too fragile to bear another round of lockdown.” — Muhammadu Buhari (@MBuhari).
Vaccines?
It’s not all gloom as the health minister Ehanire on Wednesday said the country should take delivery of Covid-19 vaccines by January, next year. He said a committee set up for that purpose was already working with a view to deciding the kind of vaccine that would be suitable for Nigeria.
Ehanire disclosed this in an interview with State House correspondents after the weekly meeting of the Federal Executive Council presided over by Vice-president Yemi Osinbajo. According to him, Nigeria has signed up with the World Health Organisation and the GAVI Alliance for access to vaccines immediately they are available.
“We signed up for advanced market participation in COVAX. So, if we will be able to get our own, I think it will be in January. But there are different types of vaccines. There are those that have to be in ultra-deep freezers – the MRA type of vaccines. That is the freezer that must give you -80 per cent type of degree.
“There is another type that has to be in the deep freezer of -20 degree which is a deep freezer and there is another type that can be in -2 degrees refrigerators. This is the regular refrigerator.
“The one that will be in regular refrigerators is easy. We have them here. The one that will be in -20 refrigerators is also going to be possible because we also have the freezers here but the one that will be in ultra-cold freezers; we hardly have ultra-cold freezers in this country and to receive and store in those ultra-cold freezers will require that you purchase the ultra-cold freezers.
“So, we are working on the cost. Which one shall we get first? Obviously, the one we can afford. Remember that we have 200 million citizens. We need to have a way to be able to get enough to be able to take care of our citizens. So, that means we must be able to get the vaccines that work well, with good cost of storage and cost of delivery. That is the one we will like to get as soon as they are available.”
He urged Nigerians to continue to comply with the non-pharmaceutical measures released by the government.
Similarly, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in a statement on Wednesday said Nigeria’s former minister of finance, Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, has assured Nigeria and other African countries of access to Covid-19 vaccines as from the end of January through the first quarter of 2021.
The statement quoted Mrs. Okonjo-Iweala as disclosing this at a closed-door meeting with the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Geoffrey Onyeama, in Abuja.
“As long as one person has it in the world, no one is safe. And that is why poorer countries, lower middle-income countries like Nigeria, need to get it as quickly as possible,” she was quoted as saying.
She disclosed that the international initiative involved the World Health Organisation, the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI), GAVI and the international community, to get vaccines delivered to developing and poorer countries, in an affordable manner and quickly.
According to her, the Pfizer vaccine and the AstraZeneca one were presently being negotiated so that poor countries do not have to stand in a queue behind rich countries.
She said a platform called the COVAX facility has been developed with 186 countries on board, adding that the side interested in serving the poor countries have 92 countries, for which resources have been raised to try and get the vaccines to them quickly.
“So, the Pfizer vaccine, the AstraZeneca, those are being negotiated now so that poor countries don’t have to stand in line behind rich countries. We hope they are starting by the end of January. We will be able to reach these countries, including most of the African countries, Nigeria included, will be able to get access to some of these vaccines,” Okonjo-Iweala said.
