Last week’s disclosure by the Vice-president, Professor Yemi Osinbajo, that the Economic Sustainability Committee has received projections that the number of unemployed people may rise to 39.4 million by the end of 2020 if the government does not take prompt measures, should serve as a wake up call to the nation’s policy formulators at all levels of government and the organised private sector. The committee was saddled with the responsibility of developing a credible sustainability plan for repositioning the Nigerian economy pre and post COVID-19 crisis period.
Speaking when he presented the committee’s report to President Muhammadu Buhari, Osinbajo said the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reports that Nigeria’s unemployment figure stood at 20.9 million at the end of 2018 third-quarter. The NBS also projects that the country would have a revenue shortfall of N185 billion monthly with oil prices at $30 a barrel.
“Several projections, including those done by the NBS on behalf of the Economic Sustainability Committee, showed a severe downturn in our oil earnings, as a result of which, even with oil price at $30 a barrel, we would still have a shortfall of about N185 billion every month, in the amount available for allocation to the three tiers of government;
“That unemployment may rise to 33.6 per cent or about 39.4 million people by the end of 2020 if we fail to take prompt preemptive measures; that millions more will fall into extreme poverty before the coronavirus pandemic ends; that GDP may fall to between minus 4.40 per cent and minus 8.91 per cent, depending on the length of the lockdown period and strength of our economic response.” Osinbajo said the committee decided to focus on encouraging local production and innovation while emphasising the use of local materials.
“We have, therefore, recommended that we must carry out mass programmes that create jobs and utilise local materials. Such will include a mass agricultural programme, which is expected to bring between 20,000 and 100,000 hectares of new farmland under cultivation in every state of the federation and create millions of direct and indirect job opportunities.
“We are also embarking on: extensive public works and road construction programme, focusing on both major and rural roads and using locally available materials like limestone, cement and granite; mass housing programme to deliver up to 300,000 homes annually, engaging young professionals and artisans who form themselves into small and medium scale businesses within the construction industry, using indigenous labour and materials; installation of solar home system, targeting five million households, serving about 25 million individual Nigerians who are currently not connected to the national grid; and the provision of ample support for the informal sector through low-interest loans and by easing procedures for registration, licensing, obtaining permits, etc.”
To ensure proper implementation, the committee recommended that ministers be responsible for supervising implementation in their ministries. In his remarks, Buhari commended Nigerians for adapting to the realities of the pandemic. “This has been a trying time for those in the informal sector, which constitutes a large part of our economy, important family celebrations were held without the presence of loved ones, schools are closed and parents have had to resort to homeschooling in addition to juggling other responsibilities.
“Despite all these, Nigerians have done their best and persevered. I must salute Nigerians for their resilience in adapting to the realities of the COVID-19 effect while also recognising the superhuman effort of our frontline health workers.” He also commended the committee for completing their assignment in good time.
We comment President Buhari’s proactive and pragmatic steps in setting up the Economic Sustainability Committee to get the economy back on track following the economic havoc wreaked by the novel COVID-19 pandemic. It is quite remarkable that the committee, chaired by Vice-president Osinbajo, has rolled out a number of solutions across the different sectors of the economy.
The committee, in an apparent strategy to diversify the economy from its mono-product dependency on oil, has said a major focus will be on development of the agricultural sector with the aim of creating five million jobs. It said state governments are to contribute between 20,000 to 100,000 hectares of land to make the project feasible over a period of 12 months.
“The intention is for the project to create 5 million jobs by focusing on increasing land under cultivation with state governments contributing between 20,000 to 100,000 hectares from a combination of aggregated smallholder farms and utilisation of abandoned states farm settlements and agricultural projects,” the committee said in a report.
“The project will span the entire agricultural value chain, from ‘farm to table’ as it were. It will support smallholder farmers directly or throughout grower schemes with services and inputs including land-clearing, ploughing, provision of seeds, saplings, fertilisers, pesticides as well as extension services, storage to mitigate post-harvest losses and equipment.
We urge the Buhari government not leave any stone unturned in the onerous task of getting the economy back on track. The much touted diversification of the economy must be vigorously pursued to fruition. The volatility of oil prices at the international market has caused grave dislocations to the nation’s economy which can no longer be tolerated or taken for granted. Thus, the Osinbajo committee report must be religiously implemented.
