When I woke up to the news in late February of a confirmed case of COVID-19 in Nigeria, quite frankly, I was not surprised. It was inevitable after cases started emerging in Europe. With the benefit of hindsight, it is probably a good thing that our land borders had been closed a long while before the outbreak reached our shores. The border closure did not make sense economically at the time. But bizarrely and even paradoxically, it has turned out to be a blessing in disguise.
I am not really interested in what it is, COVID-19 or coronavirus. As an individual, the best you can do is what you should ordinarily do in normal times: maintain good hygiene, eat healthy, exercise regularly, and so on. There are additional measures, of course. In figuring these out, I have been doing some reading. Yes, one follows the regular updates by the federal and state governments, World Health Organisation and others. But it is also important to understand what underpins the measures they announce and the advice they give.
In Nigeria, based on my own observations, our best shot at dealing with the crisis is finding and isolating whoever is infected before he or she mixes with the general population. This is because, even as the majority of Nigerians desire to live clean and healthy lives, the poor circumstances of the majority of us suggest this remains a desire than reality for most. Thus, an outbreak of Chinese or Iranian proportions would almost certainly be devastating. We must not allow that to happen. And it is in our power to do so. How so?
The Chinese and Iranians made a couple of mistakes. There is a natural tendency to hide the undesirable for sometimes justifiable reasons like avoiding a panic, bad press and so on. But there are exceptions. It is widely known that a disease outbreak with the potential to become an epidemic or pandemic must be quickly contained and communicated. The natural tendency is to hope that a full containment would make the latter needless. Time and time again, this has proved not to be the case.
Health epidemics are eventually revealed, no matter how hard a government tries to hide the facts initially. And the very measures, which if taken much earlier, would have prevented a worsening of the situation, tend to be implemented eventually. To find answers and put my observations in context, I read London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine Associate Prof Adam Kucharski’s 2020 book, ‘The Rules of Contagion: Why things spread – and why they stop.’ It was one of a couple of books recommended by the Financial Times for readers who might be interested in understanding epidemics – or pandemics if global – as we all grapple with the current one. I found some of Kucharski’s insights to be very instructive and shall share them forthwith.
A disease outbreak typically has four main stages: spark, growth, peak and decline. And in some cases, it is a cycle, repeating the four stages continuously until the end. In my view, the individual can take the most effective precautions at the spark and early growth stages. If you do nothing then, there is little else you would be able to do as an individual that would likely really matter. Coercive measures, like quarantines, curfews, school closures, restrictions on public gatherings, and so on, tend to be implemented by the authorities at the high growth stage. That is, when it is abundantly clear that an outbreak has reached epidemic proportions. But the individual who has not done the needful, like stocking up (not hoarding) on essential commodities, etc. would be greatly inconvenienced at this stage. Because at this time, it would take longer to procure these things and you would probably not get everything you seek. Thankfully, our situation in Nigeria has not reached that level yet.
By my reckoning, we are still at the spark stage. And thankfully, a very small spark at that; considering there is only one confirmed case of COVID-19 in Nigeria (at the time of this writing). By about a month from when that case was confirmed, our situation would probably be clearer. That is, we would then know for sure if there is going to be a growth stage, with more cases confirmed, or if as was previously the case for Ebola, we have successfully nipped the outbreak in the bud.
High-capacity mosques and churches are intensely social environments as well, and should probably be closed to the public for the same period. Our famed religiosity could be an inhibitor. Telling Nigerian imams and pastors to suspend their prayer events for a period, when many are likely to become even more religious, is not likely to sit well with many.
As a Muslim, I understand quite well the difficulty in subscribing to the more effective solution of burning the infected bodies instead. While in the end, that is an individual choice, the reason for the different outcomes is glaringly obvious. And for the current outbreak, Iran eventually closed its religious shrines and has stopped Friday prayers for the time being and Saudi Arabia has banned all pilgrimages to Mecca this year. These are sensible moves.
Raji is a researcher based in Lagos
