As the 2023 general elections draw nearer, online polls and a series of solidarity rallies are held interchangeably across the country. But will they transform into a reality at the polls? TOPE SUNDAY asks.
Barely five months to 2023 general elections, the series of online polls and solidarity rallies going on in the country are noteworthy, and subjects of discourses in the public domains. Few days ago, the social media, and the mainstream media were awash with the photos and video clips of many groups that have staged rallies for their preferred presidential candidates in some selected cities and towns in Nigeria.
2019 in retrospect
Two weeks to the 2019 presidential election, a field work conducted by the Pollster, Williams and Associates, predicted that the candidate of the opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Atiku Abubakar, will win the election as posted on the website of the company.
Williams and Associates had, in a similar field work in 2015, predicted the defeat of the administration of President Goodluck Jonathan in the last presidential election in Nigeria.
Information posted on the website of the company shows that it deployed the same methodology used in the 2015 prediction to conduct the field work for the 2019 election. The activity was conducted between January 11 and January 16, 2019, across all the six geopolitical zones of the country.
The result of the poll shows that the PDP candidate, Atiku will win against other candidates in the election with 45 percent of the total vote cast, 12 percent higher than his closest opponent, incumbent President Muhammadu Buhari, who polled 33 percent.
Also, the UK-based Economist Magazine predicted that President Muhammadu Buhari of the APC will lose the 2019 presidential election to Alhaji Atiku Abubakar of the PDP.
In a report published by its research unit which is known as the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), the renowned magazine forecast that “President, Muhammadu Buhari will lose power at the February 2019 elections, and that the next government will be led by Atiku Abubakar of the PDP, although his administration will be fragile.”
But in reality, Buhari of the APC scored 15,191,847 votes at the 2019 presidential election to defeat Atiku of the PDP who got 11,262,978 votes. The vote difference between them was 3,928,869.
The new polls
As it was predicted in 2019 and years before it, the online polls have also been predicting who will win the 2023 presidential election.
In its prediction, Bloomberg released a poll indicating the lead of the Presidential candidate of the Labour Party (LP), Peter Obi, ahead of the others.
The poll, which was conducted by Premise Data Corporation for Bloomberg News and published, showed the Labour Party candidate is the most-favoured among other contestants as he emerged tops in choices of prospective voters.
The media organisation noted that most respondents claimed they trust the election to be run fairly and think their vote will make a difference, despite the general disenchantment about Nigeria’s trajectory.
Also, in another poll conducted by NOI Polls, Obi was projected to win the election. The poll, commissioned by ANAP Foundation, suggests a three-horse presidential race between Mr. Obi, Bola Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress (APC) and Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).
Rabiu Kwankwaso of the New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP) came forth in the poll and was described as a ‘dark horse.’
Like Obi, the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), an arm of The Economist of London, also predicted victory for Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, presidential candidate of the All Progressives Congress, in the 2023 presidential election.
The UK-based platform, in the country report, said the controversy of the Muslim-Muslim presidential ticket will not affect Tinubu’s chances in the elections.
Atiku, Obi and Tinubu’s rallies
While the opinion/ online polls are outweighing one another, the crowds at their various solidarity rallies are also outsmarting one another. The major contenders in the presidential race, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu of the APC; Alhaji Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Mr. Peter Obi of the Labour Party (LP), and Engr. Rabi’u Musa Kwankwaso of the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP), are all pulling crowds in their rights.
But according to available reports, Tinubu and Obi, whose supporters have tested ‘microphones,’ are believed to be topping the game.
‘Online polls mere illusions’
Reacting, a lecturer at the Federal University Oye Ekiti, Mr. Oluwafemi Fayomi, who spoke with Blueprint Weekend, described the online polls as “mere illusions.”
Fayomi, who is of the department of Political Science of the university, said: “Well, the impact of online polls on election reality in Nigeria has not been as effective as in advanced democracies. This is so because many Nigerians who will vote in the elections do not subscribe to social media platforms, which serve as the source of the respondents of the online polls.
“According to Lester Malbrath’s submission on why people participate in politics, he classified those who attend political party rallies as mere spectators in his three-fold typology of Political participation. In his view, many of them don’t belong to a political party, while those who belong to a political party may not have a voter card.
“It is instructive to note that party identification, rational thought or analysis of the teething national problems by individual electorate as well as ethno-religion sentiment will go a long way in determining the winner of the 2023 Presidential election. It is safe to consider the online polls as mere illusions that are very far from reality.”
Crowds at rallies do not represent actual voters on Election Day–Barnabas
Also, a lecturer at Baze University, Abuja, Dr. Suleiman Barnabas, told this reporter that crowds at political rallies do not represent actual votes on the Election Day.
He said: “he online polls are okay for information, which could inspire more campaign efforts by the candidates to woo votes from regions or demographics that the polls show they are not likely to win during the elections.
Having said this, it is my firm view that neither the online polls nor the mammoth crowds at campaign rallies would determine the winners.
“The so-called crowds, whatever the numbers and the camera-effect, do not represent a significant number of the actual voters on Election Day! Most of the voters do not attend campaign rallies, and do not even belong to political parties. Also, among the crowds you see are people motivated by stipends to attend the rallies.
“So, it’s definitely not a reflection of voters’ decision on Election Day. And politicians know this fact more than me! The results of the online polls are only indicative of the online presence of certain supporters, and these cannot predict the 2023 presidential winner!
Any delusion there from is nothing but unfortunate to a candidate who believes in it.
“Besides, how representative was the sampled population? What’s the population size of respondents? What were the sampling techniques employed and how credible are they to rely on them?
‘People are setting agenda with online polls’
However, a media consultant, Mr. Denis Matthew, said people are setting agenda with the online polls, arguing that though it may not reflect the voters’ choice at the poll.
He said: “My perspective is that I don’t see nor second to the various online polls projecting the winner of 2023 presidential elections because some of these polls are being sponsored by either the presidential candidates themselves or their spin-doctors.
“Also, some of those conducting the polls and individuals canvassing for these aspirants do not have the voter’s cards. Therefore, the reality will be on the field during the general elections. However, I cannot ignore the fact that those conducting these polls are setting an agenda on the voters’ mindset with various reasons why they should vote for a particular presidential aspirant. All we’re clamouring for as patriotic Nigerians is assurance of free and fair elections already declared by President Buhari.”
