As I write this piece today, Tuesday, December 12, 2023, the Nigerian population is 226,179,203. This population estimate is based on Worldometer’s latest United Nations data elaboration. In the last 50 years, the Nigerian population has escalated at a geometric proportion. The population growth rate in Nigeria is “one birth in every four seconds and one death in every 14 seconds.”
In the next 30 years, Nigeria will have an estimated population of 450 million people. It will occupy the third position of the topmost populous country in the world after India and China. In the year 2050, about 80% of the Nigerian population will be below the age of 45 years, which will be a virile, energetic, and active population. The Nigerian population explosion can be delicate, with youth being the majority. The country can be turned into Eldorado by developing the human capital of the teeming population. In reverse, the country can self-destruct with the calamitous consequences of destabilising the African continent, which may extend to Europe and America. Yes, we have recently witnessed mass migration into Europe without due process. Which direction is Nigeria moving to?
Human capital development is sine qua non for a country’s socio-economic and political transformation. Globally, it is generally agreed that human capital formation is the most virile causal factor responsible for the impressive performance of the economies of industrialised nations. The formation of human capital in these countries entails a consistent increase in knowledge, skills, and capabilities acquired through the people’s education and training. Improvement in two key sectors – health, and education – targeting youth, are required for human capital development. There is a strong correlation between investment in education and health sectors and productivity as well as the economic prosperity of a nation. What is the Nigerian scorecard in these two key sectors: education and health?
In 2001, Heads of State of African Union countries met in April 2001 at Abuja and pledged to set a target of allocating, at least, 15 percent of their annual budget to improve the health sector. The pledge was tagged “Abuja Declaration”. Similarly, in the 2015 report of the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organisation (UNESCO), it was recommended that 15 to 20 percent of the national budgets of developing countries, like Nigeria, should be allocated to education. The information was contained in the 2015 “Education for All 2000-2015: Achievements and Challenges” report. In the last 20 years, Nigeria has never allocated up to 10% of its annual budget to education or the health sector. For instance, the percentages of annual budgetary allocation of the federal government to education from 2017 to 2020 were 7.4%, 7.04%, 7.05%, and 6.7%, respectively.
Similarly, the health sector was allocated 3.95% and 4.52% in 2018 and 2020, respectively. The state government also made similar paltry allocations to these crucial sectors. Perhaps the kind of lip service we are paying to these critical sectors depicted the gloomy picture of Nigeria in the 2018 Goalkeepers report. The report indicated, “Nigeria will have 152 million people in extreme poverty out of a projected population of over 400 million by the year 2050. This figure means that Nigeria will represent about 36% of the total number of people in ‘extreme poverty Worldwide”.
From the preceding discussion, it is clear that governments at both federal and state levels still need to improve the two critical sectors for human capital development. While the government is the major player in developing human capital, the citizenry has an equally crucial role in fast-tracking and facilitating a positive change of making high population a virtue rather than a curse. Today, China is the most populous country in the world but has the most vibrant and dominating economy. How can we change today’s Nigeria’s picture of hopelessness and squalor to economic prosperity and greater hope? Having many youths with little or no capacity to increase national productivity is akin to a “time bomb” whose detonation will cause devastating calamity. Today’s situation is a cloudy sky with uncertainty, an imminent threat hovering over our heads, and a pregnant society.
So, what do we do to prevent the time bomb from detonating?
First, we must understand that when a time bomb is detonated, all the people and properties within the environment will be consumed by the inferno. There will be no hiding place for both the elite and the commoners. Already, there are signs of the calamitous event; steadily deteriorating social security, banditry, insurgency, and kidnapping are all preparatory strides toward bomb detonation. Children are like a cleaned whiteboard; whatever is ascribed to it appears good or bad. There are so many writers on this blackboard: parents, teachers, peer groups, environment, society, and above all, destiny.
As responsible parents, it is our moral responsibility and parental obligation, within the societal constraints and abilities, to see that the right lessons using the correct procedures are taught to our children. We must be keenly interested in what our children are doing at all times, whom they are associating with, and how they spend their active and leisure time periodically. Naturally, as parents, we love our children, but today’s parents have no limits to the kind of love they give their children. We over-pamper them. Instead of showing them that hard work, dedication and discipline lead to success in life, we go the extra mile to “purchase” success for them by bribing teachers to give them good grades and excellent NECO/WAEC results.
The situation worsens as parents come to our campuses to “lobby” for their children to pass exams instead of advising them to work hard. School disciplines of yonder years have disappeared; the boarding school system has become an outcast. The excessive vigour with which we over-spoil our children is becoming unbecoming. It is expected to see an active and healthy graduate who could not secure a white-collar job hanging on to his retired parents for upkeep, from buying bathroom soap to airtime credits; what a shame.
In the 1970s and 1980s, there was no severe class segregation of our children as some of us, children of the commoners, attended the same public primary and secondary schools with children of the emirs and other high-ranking personalities. Today, the children of the elite go to expensive private schools within or outside the country.
Thus, they are denied opportunities to mingle with the commoners’ children and understand society’s problems. Yet, these are the children who are being prepared to take over the country’s governance from their elitist parents.
Our public hospitals are mere consulting clinics and, at best, serve those who can afford to pay for the services. Our public primary and secondary schools are turned into playgrounds and avenues for passing the time of underprivileged children. Who will want to take his child to LEA or GSS today? It is how bad the situation has gone.
Nigeria’s leadership must invest heavily in the education and health sectors. Nigeria should allocate 20% and 10% of the annual budget to the education and health sectors. There should be a legislated policy to make it compulsory for all children of public office holders and high-ranking civil servants to attend public schools from primary to tertiary level. It will make the policymakers take a serious look at our education sector.
Educational curriculum has to be reviewed at all levels of our educational system. Germane issues on problem-solving strategies, innovations, job creation, nationalism, and culture, among others, should be incorporated into the renewed curriculum. The educational system should be tailored to fast-track societal development for an agrarian nation with a geometric population increase and diverse nationalities. This way, we can replace the “time bomb” with a bright future for our youths and the potential to make Nigeria succeed. May it happen quickly – a passionate appeal to our president, PBAT, to take the proper steps in the right direction.
