Deborah Nelson
Since advent of the Goodluck Jonathan administration, many challenges have conspired to make Nigeria ungovernable and frustrate him out of office. Some of the challenges are Boko Haram terrorist activities and widespread destruction of lives and properties in Northern Nigeria by Fulani herdsmen. However bloody these acts may be, core northern politicians, the Arewa Consultative Forum (ACF) and All Progressives Congress (APC) often celebrate and use them to justify their incessant calls on President Jonathan to resign.
It should be noted that about 69% of Nigeria’s GDP is from the sale of gas and crude oil from South-south, 20% from South-west and 11% from South-east. Prior to amnesty, Nigeria could only produce about 700,000 barrels of crude oil daily due to disruptive activities of militants in spite of the fact that late President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua saturated Niger Delta with soldiers to restore normalcy but all to no avail. To forestall economic strangulation, Yar’Adua had to adopt the amnesty option. The militants who confronted the Yar’Adua’s war machine are still very much around, with even more converts to disrupt crude oil and gas production if necessary.
If a core northern politician becomes president of Nigeria next year, it is very likely that the people of Niger Delta will do everything humanly possible to make Nigeria ungovernable for him. This is because they strongly believe that core northern politicians use Boko Haram to perpetrate widespread destruction of lives and properties in order to make Nigeria ungovernable for Jonathan as they promised in 2010. Consequently, however credible the presidential election may be, emergence of General Muhammadu Buhari, Governor Rabiu Kwankwaso or any core northern politician as Nigerian president in 2015 will usher in unprecedented shortage of revenue due to massive and sustained disruption of crude oil and gas production by Niger Delta militants. It will never be business as usual because relying on gas and crude oil revenue will be a very costly miscalculation. Hence core northern politicians must make adequate arrangement for alternative sources of revenue in order to forestall manifestation of these consequences.
Even at the current production of over two million barrels of crude oil per day with a barrel of crude oil going for over $100, most states cannot even pay the national minimum wage. With the exception of Lagos state, every other state will find it difficult to function in absence of crude oil and gas revenue. Fuel scarcity will be persistent with no end in sight. The multiplier effects of these inevitable developments will be all encompassing with enormous capacity to ignite mob actions across the country against the ruling class. Initially, Lagos state will be able to generate enough revenue to function normally while all other states will find it extremely difficult to even provide essential services. Consequently, the harsh economic conditions in these states will force their citizens to migrate en masse to Lagos state. This huge and sustained influx of both skilled and unskilled Nigerians to Lagos will overwhelm the state and generate enormous social problems. Within a few years, the crime rate and all sorts of vices will be on the increase and slowly but surely, Lagos state’s government will find it increasingly difficult to function optimally due to lack of funds. Note that Lagos state must service huge domestic debt which runs into billions of naira as well as $1.2 billion debt to international creditors.
All independent power plants scattered all over the country are powered exclusively by gas. Even at the current level of gas production and supply to these power plants, the quantity of electricity generated is not even enough to enable distribution companies to break even. The inevitable disruption of gas production and supply to the power plants will lead to permanent shut down of these plants thereby resulting in substantial reduction in electricity, hence there will be no power to either transmit or distribute. Many manufacturing companies will collapse due to lack of gas and NGO to power generating plants and generators, respectively. Production of goods and services will be negatively affected with unemployment, retrenchment, poverty, social vices on the increase.
The Federal Government will be fighting two wars because while Boko Haram will continue with their terrorist activities in the north, crude oil and gas war will be rumbling in the creeks of Niger Delta simultaneously. The conditions so created will provide enabling environment for seamless establishment of a Caliphate by Boko Haram in the north and inevitable disorderly fragmentation of the Nigerian state.
This can be averted. In 1999, only the Yorubas were asked to provide a president for the nation in order to heal the wound inflicted by Babangida’s endless transition programme. The degree of hatred and mistrust between core northern politicians and people of Niger Delta has reached a very dangerous level. Core northern politicians have every right as enshrined in the constitution to vie for any elective office in the land, but caution is required to avert the gathering storm next year. They have resolved to return power to the north. But emergence of a core northern politician as president in 2015 may usher in a series of events that may culminate in irreversible disintegration of the Nigerian state. This is not aimed at encouraging Nigerians to either oppose or support Jonathan’s political ambition. Rather, it is aimed at drawing the attention of Nigerians to the gathering storm which can dismember this nation if not well managed.
Dr Nelson wrote from Ilorin
