President Muhammadu Buhari has said his party, the All Progressives Congress (APC), may lose the 2023 presidential election to the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) or another opposition party if the ruling party does not put its acts together. Buhari stated this in an interview with the Nigerian Television Authority (NTA) on Thursday last week. He spoke against the backdrop of disagreement on some issues around the APC convention slated for February.
Coming from President Buhari, who is a direct beneficiary of the coalesced legacy parties which became APC and wrestled power from PDP in 2015 general elections, the statement is a stern warning. But beyond the party’s convention, there are other thorny issues or hurdles the party should contend with in order to retain power in 2023. While the forthcoming party’s convention will serve as a litmus test and determine which part of the country will produce a formidable presidential candidate, signs have since emerged that the South-west has an upper hand.
In the South-west, many political gladiators have shown interest to vie for the nation’s number one seat. Notable among them are Bola Ahmed Tinubu, Vice President Yemi Osinbanjo and Governor Fayemi of Ekiti state. Many political groups have been pushing for their candidature. However, among the contenders, Bola Tinubu is a hard nut to crack. One of his weaknesses is the issue of a “running mate”.
Political pundits have predicted that if Tinubu gets the party’s ticket and picks his running mate from the Northern Christian minority, it will sway Northern Muslim votes for him. What if Tinubu settles for a Muslim running mate? It will not also translate to election victory, considering that the country is polarised along religious fault line. These are some of the Tinubu’s albatross. Unless Tinubu, who has been playing the role of a king maker, steps down and supports one of his loyalists, APC’s chances to win 2023 presidential election are slim.
The problem of insecurity bedeviling the country, which the APC led administration promised to address when it came to power in 2015, has defied solutions. Though, the administration may have recorded success in liberating some local government areas in Borno state from the grip of Boko Haram insurgents as stated times without number by Mr President, insecurity has reared its ugly head and become a frankinstein monster in the country. In the last six years of the APC administration, kidnapping and banditry in the North-west states have persisted.
Bandits have continued to overun and sack many communities, impose taxes and chase poor farmers from their farms. The emergence of non-state actors such as Nnamdi Kanu and Sunday Igboho, threatening the corporate existence of the country has excerbated tension. Despite the fact these non-state actors are being detained and their groups proscribed, some states in the South-east have never known peace.
For instance, the violent activities of Eastern Security Network (ESN) have paralysed business and education in Imo, Anambra and Enugu states. With the deteriorating insecurity in the country and the inability of the APC led government to tame it, Nigerians may reject the party in next year’s elections.
Another area the Buhari administration is performing abysmally is the economy. Yes, the government may have inherited a comatose economy from its predecessor, the crash in the price of crude oil could have adversely affected its revenues. However, some key economic indicators have shown that the government has failed to improve the economy as promised during its campaign. Let us look at the country’s inflation which continues to eat up Nigerians’ purchasing power.
Prior to 2015, the nation’s inflation rates remained a single digit even as analysts opined at the time that it was high. For instance, in the whole of 2014, the nation’s rate of inflation hovered around 7.7%, which was the lowest, to the highest point of 8.5%. In 2015, when Buhari took over power, inflation rate averaged 9%. In recent years, the nation has seen a persistent surge in inflation rates, reaching the highest levels.
Food inflation has climbed up beyond the reach of the ordinary Nigerians who are struggling daily to eke out a living. It is on record that when the administration took over power in the second quarter of 2015, unemployment rate rose to 9.9% in the third quarter of that year from 8.2% in the second quarter, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
Since then, unemployment, poverty and economic disempowerment have remained a disturbing feature of the Nigerian life. One should also talk about the continues crash of naira, foreign exchange policy and debt rate which currently stands at $38 trillion and may reach $50 trillion by 2023. If the performance of the country’s economy is anything to go by, APC will find it difficult to get Nigerians’ mandate in 2023.
The decision of the government to remove petrol subsidy this year will have serious negative effects on the lives of Nigerians. If petrol subsidy is removed, more Nigerians will be pushed into poverty and hunger. This policy will affect APC in the next election.
Moreover, for the opposition political parties to capture power in 2023, they need to close ranks, become formidable forces and work out comprehensive blueprint for the development of the country. They should also present candidate of timber and caliber fully prepared to confront the numerous challenges bedeviling the country.
Ibrahim Mustapha,Pambegua, Kaduna state08169056963.