It’s no longer news that the national leader of the ruling All Progressives Congress, APC, Senator Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, has vowed not to leave any stone unturned to actualise his age long dream of becoming the President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria in 2023.
Tinubu, a former governor of Lagos state from 1999 to 2007, has grown his political structures to one of the biggest in modern day Nigeria.
Tinubu has a firm grip of the structures of South-west Nigeria as his disciples are visible in all the states as governors, heads of agencies, party leaders, among others. The Vice President, Professor Yemi Osinbajo, and several ministers in the President Muhammadu Buhari federal government are his disciples.
Even in Northern Nigeria, Tinubu is a household name. This is the extent to which Asiwaju’s structures are visible. If anyone is to be feared as an intimidating force in the 2023 general elections, that person is Asiwaju. So, when Tinubu declared his intention to run for office of the president, everyone knew the eagle has taken off and it will definitely soar very high.
However, there are many rivers Mr Tinubu will have to cross. First, many Nigerians, especially the younger generation, from all nooks and crannies are calling on Osinbajo, a disciple of Tinubu, to contest the 2023 presidential election. Over ten groups in their thousands have launched their campaign for the vice president to join the presidential race. Their belief is that Prof Osinbajo has creditably carried out his responsibility as vice president to Buhari and should be allowed to take over. If Osinbajo picks the nomination form, this will definitely split the Tinubu camp.
Another river is that of health. Nigerians are complaining that Tinubu’s health is not as strong as what is needed by a digital president in a country like Nigeria. There was a time the social media was ignited with pictures of Tinubu wetting his clothing during an event. Even though Tinubu has dispersed the complaint, the excuse he gave that he is running for president and not a marathon didn’t go well with Nigerians. The state of health of a president and his age have a lot to do with his ability to govern.
Then comes the third river which is the issue of moral justification. Asiwaju and Osinbajo are from the South-west region of Nigeria. Between 1999 and 2023, the South-west has held sway in the presidency for 16 years. General Matthew Aremu Olusegun Obasanjo was president for eight years and Prof Yemi Osibanjo SAN has been vice president for another eight years.
If the South is agitating for power shift, what moral justification does the South-west have to be hell bent on being the part of the region of the South to produce the president? The South-east has never produced the president nor the vice, the South-south has done it for eight years while the South-west has had 16 good years.
It is often said that he who comes to equity must come with clean hands. If the presidency will be going to the South on the basis of zoning, Bola Ahmed Tinubu should rather be seen as the projector in chief of a fair play. The failure of Tinubu to speak for other regions of the South such as the South-east that has not benefitted from the presidency since the return of democracy will make him appear to be a self centered person. This will give Tinubu a big moral burden.
Nigerians will not want to produce a self centered politician as their president in 2023. So Tinubu will definitely have the duty of convincing other parts of the country on while his South-west region should take another shot at the presidency when other regions in the South with eminently qualified candidates should not.
As activities for the APC primary elections are gearing up, if Tinubu will be coming up for president, he will definitely face challenges from his inner house, his health and the moral justification for a Yoruba president when the South-east is yet to produce one.
Martin Iorsamber,Convener, Movement for Advancement and Peaceful Nigeria.