In recent times, various reports by the NBS have raised questions from ordinary Nigerians who see the documents as not a reflection of their realities. However, experts have said that a lack of understanding of the processes leading to the report is majorly responsible for the skepticism; BENJAMIN UMUTEME writes.
Nigeria’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) was established as a result of the merger of the Federal Office of Statistics (FOS) and the National Data Bank (NDB). This merger was part of the implementation of the Statistical Master Plan (SMP), a programme initiated by the Nigerian Federal Government with preparation funded by the World Bank in 2003.
The work of the Bureau centres on producing, managing, and disseminating reliable socio-economic and demographic statistics for the country to support evidence-based decision-making and policy formulation.
The objectives of the Bureau are to generate, continuously and sustainably, socio-economic statistics covering all facets of development in Nigeria; collect, compile, analyse, and publish official statistics on economic, social, demographic, and environmental conditions; conduct censuses and surveys across the country to gather comprehensive data; provide accurate and timely statistical information to assist government, researchers, private sector, and international bodies in policy design, planning, and evaluation; coordinate and standardise statistical activities to avoid duplication and ensure data comparability and quality.
Others are; maintain a comprehensive national data bank and statistical infrastructure to serve as a knowledge base; assist in monitoring socio-economic programs such as poverty eradication and development goals for impact assessment; promote the use of ICT and modern technology in data collection and dissemination; and act as a liaison between various government tiers and international organisations on statistical matters.
Conducting survey
The NBS conducts its surveys using modern methods centered on structured questionnaires administered digitally through tablets using Survey Solutions Computer-Assisted Personal Interviewing (CAPI) technology.
For instance, in the General Household Survey (GHS) and Nigeria Labour Force Survey (NLFS), enumerators use tablets to conduct interviews onsite, enabling real-time data upload and quality checks by data editors. Survey implementation typically involves teams of interviewers supervised by a field supervisor.
Key steps in their survey process include: Sampling frame and selection, which entails the use of detailed sampling frames based on national population census data and integrated survey master sample. Enumeration Areas (EAs) are systematically sampled to represent different states and geopolitical zones. Replacement households may be randomly selected if initially chosen households are unavailable or refuse participation.
Fieldwork organisation by the NBS consists of supervisors and interviewers who conduct interviews in sampled EAs. Typically, teams stay for several days in each area to complete household and community questionnaires. Supervisors also conduct quality control, additional interviews, and collect community-level data alongside household data.
Furthermore, the data collection survey covers households and individuals, collecting comprehensive information on demographics, labour, income, agriculture, and socio-economic indicators. Some surveys have multiple visits per household over time (panel surveys).
In addition, data management and quality assurance involves capturing data digitally, allowing real-time error checks and corrections. Data editors monitor uploads and communicate with enumerators to ensure data integrity. Before analysis, data undergoes cleaning and anonymisation.
The Bureau also engages in continuous and panel surveys: The NLFS is conducted continuously throughout the year, producing quarterly national estimates and annual state-level results. Panel surveys like the GHS follow the same households over multiple rounds to analyse changes over time.
The statistics bureau in order to effectively carry out its job, gives room for collaboration with its various partners such as the World Bank and Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, adopting best practices and innovative survey modules (e.g., on corruption, gender, disability). And in terms of innovations, the bureau has not been lacking as it uses new sampling methodologies, including digital enumeration area maps and gridded population survey sampling, complementing traditional approaches.
Inflation rates methodology
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a macroeconomic indicator that provides a general measure of changes in the average prices of goods and services commonly purchased by consumers relative to a base period (the price reference period is 2024).
The inflation rate is directly computed from the index. The inflation rate is the relative change in CPI between periods. Inflation rate is reported year-on-year (annual inflation rate) and month-on-month (monthly inflation rate).
CPI is constructed using the following key variables: weights derived from estimates of household expenditures (the weight reference period is 2023), prices collected from selected retail outlets across the 36 States and FCT (both urban and rural), and quantities of goods and services.
In the current CPI, there are 74 population strata, which are the urban and rural parts of Nigeria’s 36 states and the FCT. The CPI basket has 242 item strata, defined by the 2018 version of Classification of Individual Consumption According to Purpose (COICOP). The 2018 version of COICOP has 4 levels in its hierarchy: DIVISIONS, GROUPS, CLASSES, and SUB-CLASSES.
Experts speak
Economist, Adefolarin Olamilekan, told Blueprint Weekend in a chat that lack of understanding of the methodology used by the bureau in arriving at its report is the reason why they seem not to believe the reports.
Experts say the NBS report is calculated in time series. While appreciating the wonderful work the NBS was doing, Adefolarin said that the sudden change in the prices of goods and services seems to be ruining the good work of the bureau.
He said, “What we are saying is that we appreciate the NBS methodology of calculating influence but does not capture the reality of day to day, minute by minute dynamics of price changes in Nigeria.
“Also the NBS methodology of calculating data is far from time series on the ground that prices in Nigeria change per seconds. The NBS report on inflation is done in one swap. Whether you are in city center, urban area, sub-urban or the rural areas of Nigeria, prices change dramatically at the caprices of traders, dealers, transporters, landlords amongst others.
“Sadly, in this part of the world, data play little role in our decision making, especially for economic issues. To this end we can’t blame Nigerians if they are not comfortable with the NBS report on inflation, especially with current reality. A look at food price, transportation, house and shop rent, medication and hospital bills are very much in line with the NBS report.”
Fulfilling electoral promises
To change the narrative, the economist said, governments at all levels must begin to fulfill their campaign promises. Consequently, we need to tackle the severe Economic structural deficit that hinders business and makes costly power, road, security, and access to market and multiple taxes.
Again, it is important to deal with an excess of middle men and unscrupulous business men and women, be it transporters, traders, government officials, oil corrupt activities within the corridor of food supply chain value.