From the very beginning when Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the Jagaban of Borgu kingdom and former governor of Lagos state (Nigeria’s commercial nerve centre), signalled his intention to vie for Nigeria’s topmost position, hurdles had been placed to his right and left to make him fall by the wayside and thus scuttle his ambition. But he scaled over them, deftly.
He thereby confounded his critics. Political observers are doffing their hats and head gears to him. For with his emergence as winner of Nigeria’s most keenly followed presidential election, he proved thereby that he is a master of the game, a strategist.
Result of the presidential election is not surprising for someone like Asiwaju who had been preparing for decades, building up political capital towards this day. The battle for who should take over from President Muhammadu Buhari within the APC’s fold started surreptitiously when Buhari constituted his cabinet in November 2015. Recall that Babatunde Fashola was assigned three portfolios, namely, Works, Housing and Power, thereby making him a ‘super minister’.
It was learnt that the raison d’etre was to empower him to be able to challenge Asiwaju in the next cycle of elections. Recall also that in the initial years as ‘super minister’ there was some friction between the federal government and Lagos state government over federal projects in the state, notably, federal roads and abandoned federal assets. The minister was said to have exhibited a disposition that was not in the best interests of Lagos state.
However, over time this frosty relationship was upturned and Minister Fashola played a prominent role in Jagaban’s victory, being in charge of the Situation Room. One can say that Asiwaju effectively ‘killed’ the plot to groom one of his godsons as a presidential candidate.
Planning ahead, Tinubu had succeeded in getting one of his allies (former Edo state governor, Adams Oshiomhole) to take over from the pioneer APC chairman, Oyegun. Having a buddy as the ruling party’s chairman is one of the powerful structures an APC presidential aspirant should count on his side since the party’s National Working Committee led by its chairman is the organ that organises primary election to pick the party’s flag bearer. Somehow Asiwaju’s opponents within the APC sniffed the scent and succeeded in convincing President Buhari to dissolve the Oshiomhole-led APC NWC before expiration of its tenure.
It was replaced by an Interim Committee chaired by the Yobe state governor, Alhaji Mai Mala Bunu. Although this committee was to last for only six months, it had its tenure extended again and again. This was amidst complaints by some chieftains that it was an aberration because a political party should be run by elected officials. As the timeline given by INEC for conduct of primaries by political parties drew nearer it became imperative for the Buni committee to hand over to elected officials.
And so the machinery for this was put in motion. Interested APC members began their campaigns in earnest in anticipation of a battle royale. Asiwaju’s camp, of course, had a candidate they were supporting and hoped would win. But in the 11th hour former Nasarawa state governor and senator, Turakin Keffi, Alhaji Abdullahi Adamu, joined the race as Mr. President’s preferred chairman, the consensus candidate. All other chairmanship contestants duly stepped down one after the other for him.
The election itself was a fait accompli on the appointed day. Majority of the APC National Working Committee members were elected by affirmation, consensus, save for very few posts like the woman leader that was voted for. With installation of a chairman that is not ‘beholden’ to him, Tinubu’s opponents within the party apparently thought they were having an upper hand as preparations for the primaries to pick the party’s presidential flag bearer gathered momentum.
The run up to the primaries was characterised by intrigues, twists and turns. Sensing that the mood of the nation is to have a southerner succeed President Buhari, a northerner, Asiwaju’s opponents within the corridors of power tried to railroad former President Goodluck Jonathan and CBN governor Godwin Emefiele into the race. Emefiele later discreetly dropped off. Many believed Jonathan was being lined up as a consensus candidate. But this too came to naught.
At the screening exercise, all aspirants said that they would consent to a consensus candidate. But Tinubu declined, opting instead, for election. Still, the party’s hierarchy and some other stakeholders continued to push for a consensus candidate. The general view among them was that their presidential flagbearer should emerge the same way the chairman was chosen, through consensus.
And so the date for the primary was postponed again and again, in an apparent desperate search for a consensus APC presidential candidate. From the blues, senate president, Ahmad Lawan, was thrown up as the “consensus” candidate. But President Buhari disowned him, stating in writing that he had no “anointed” candidate. And so notwithstanding the screening committee’s effort at pruning down number of contestants, the northern governors’ work at limiting the primary to only five southern aspirants, the floor was thrown open to all. So, all 23 aspirants (the largest number of presidential aspirants for any political party) slugged it out on the D-Day. Here, Tinubu triumphed in his quest for an elective primary.
The vice president was thought to be favoured being Buhari’s right hand man, so to speak. To the amazement of many, some of the aspirants began to step down one after the other for Jagaban. And he won the primary election with a wide margin. ‘No be juju be that’, the average Nigerian would say in local parlance. He had 1,271 votes followed by former Transport Minister Rotimi Amaechi with 361 votes. Vice President Yemi Osinbajo was third with 235 votes, Senate President Ahmad Lawan fourth (152), Governor Yahaya Bello fifth (47).
Then came the campaigns. What would the ruling party’s presidential flag bearer be campaigning on in view of the fact that the poverty, unemployment and inflation statistics are not good for the ruling APC? The main opposition party seized on this by urging Nigerians to vote APC out because of its ‘poor performance’. Asiwaju maintained that he would continue with the ‘good works’ of President Buhari whilst improving on others. In particular, he urged the electorate to judge him by his personal achievements as Lagos state governor.
And then few weeks to the presidential election, Jagaban’s opponents within his own ruling APC played their trump card against him – an excruciating nation-wide fuel and cash scarcity that was to cause further disenchantment with the party and anything associated with it. Somehow and miraculously, Asiwaju scaled over this last and hardest hurdle, confounding his opponents; although it had the effect that he did not win with a landslide and that he lost in some key states like Lagos, Kano and Kaduna.
Still, Asiwaju won by over two million votes. My respects Sir! And still, his die-hard critics in yet another desperate bid to stop him are broaching the idea of an interim national government to scuttle his swearing in. I sense that this historic event shall pass relatively peacefully on May 29, after which one shall be writing about the challenges confronting the Bola Tinubu Presidency.
Ikeano writes from Lafia, Nasarawa state via vikeano@gmail.com 08033077519