As the 2027 governorship race in Nasarawa state begins to take shape, a fresh survey has revealed that indigeneship, trust, proven leadership capacity, religious alignment are emerging as the dominant factors shaping public opinion ahead of the elections.
The Nasarawa Public Perception Index Survey, carried out by The Centre for Democracy and National Development (CDND) across all 13 local government areas of the state, sampled 5,200 residents using structured interviews and stratified random sampling. The survey assessed six core indicators – indigeneship, trust, capacity, background, religion, and financial strength – all of which are considered crucial to the electoral viability of any governorship aspirant in the state.
Indigeneship as an uncompromised factor
According to the survey, indigeneship scored a striking 42 per cent approval rating, ranking highest among all indicators. This reflects a strong preference among voters for candidates with ancestral and ethnic ties to the zones they seek to govern.
The survey strongly indicates that “Indigeneship” is poised to significantly influence the 2027 governorship election in Nasarawa State due to growing ethnic and communal sentiments among the electorate. With over 29 ethnic groups, the state’s diverse demographic has historically shaped voting patterns, often favoring candidates perceived as “true indigenes” with deep ancestral ties to Nasarawa.
This sentiment is gaining traction, particularly in urban and sub-urban areas like Karu, Akwanga, Keana, Wamba, Toto, Keffi, and Lafia, where grassroots groups are advocating for leaders with strong local lineage, regardless of religious affiliation. The debate over indigeneship risks polarising voters, as candidates with perceived dual heritage or “settler” status may face resistance, challenging political parties to balance their considerations with ethnic sensitivities.
Amid deliberations within political parties on how to approach the onslaught for Shendam Road government House come 2027, if proper considerations and consultations are not made, indigeneship could fracture alliances and sway key voter blocs, making it a critical factor in the 2027 race
“The people are sending a clear message: you must first belong here as the ‘son of the soil’ before you can lead,” said Bitrus Adamu, a political analyst from Nakere in Wamba local government. “Candidates parachuting in from outside our well-known ethnic or ancestral roots, no matter how competent, will face resistance,” he stressed.
Trust as the cornerstone of effective leadership
Trust reflects a candidate’s perceived sincerity, accessibility, and alignment with voter aspirations. It is the cornerstone of effective leadership, particularly in a state like Nasarawa, where governance has often been marred by skepticism about leaders’ intentions.
In Nasarawa, where political promises are often scrutinised, candidates who build personal connections or leverage grassroots networks tend to fare better. Trust is harder to quantify but emerges through consistent engagement, transparency, and avoiding scandals, making it essentially fundamental.
Trust will be a pivotal factor in the 2027 Nasarawa state governorship election as voters increasingly prioritize credibility amid widespread disillusionment with governance.
Persistent issues like infrastructure deficits, unemployment, and unfulfilled campaign promises have eroded public confidence, pushing voters to demand candidates with proven integrity and transparency. Career politicians, often associated with entrenched interests and recycled rhetoric, may face significant skepticism, as their track records are scrutinised.
The rise of social media has amplified public discourse, enabling voters to fact-check claims and expose inconsistencies, further pressuring candidates to demonstrate authenticity. Grassroots movements advocating for fresh, community-rooted leadership could sideline career politicians, favoring candidates who build genuine trust over political pedigree, reshaping the electoral landscape in 2027.
Competence as a demand for tangible solutions
The eyewitness survey revealed that Nasarawa state faces pressing issues, including inadequate infrastructure, high unemployment, and limited access to quality healthcare and education despite the commendable efforts put in by the Governor Abdullahi Sule administration. From the urban centres of Lafia and Keffi to rural communities of Awe and Toto, voters are frustrated with unfulfilled promises and are demanding leaders with the technical know-how and strategic vision to address these challenges.
Competence – demonstrated through a candidate’s ability to deliver measurable outcomes, whether in prior public office, private sector achievements, or community initiatives – is becoming a key metric for voter approval.
Voters are now more likely to support candidates with a verifiable track record of competence, such as successful project implementation or effective resource management, over those relying solely on political rhetoric or party affiliation.
Nasarawa’s growing youth population and urban electorate, particularly in areas like Karu and Akwanga as shown by the data collected, are driving a shift toward merit-based leadership.
Young voters, empowered by access to information and global perspectives, are less swayed by traditional loyalties and more focused on candidates who exhibit problem-solving skills and forward-thinking policies. This demographic is pushing for governance that mirrors the efficiency seen in successful public service, private enterprises or community-driven initiatives, making competence a non-negotiable criterion.
The state’s economic challenges, including reliance on federal allocations and limited industrial growth, underscore the need for a governor with the competence to diversify the economy, attract more investment, and create jobs. Voters are keenly aware that only a leader with strategic acumen and practical experience can navigate these complexities, further elevating competence as a deciding factor in 2027.
Career politicians, who have historically dominated Nasarawa’s political scene, may face significant challenges due to this focus on competence. While some have built loyal followings, their long tenures and association with entrenched systems could work against them for several reasons.
Many career politicians in Nasarawa are linked to administrations criticised for slow progress on critical issues like road networks, healthcare, and youth employment. Candidates with lengthy political careers, but a few concrete achievements may struggle to convince an electorate prioritising competence over familiarity.
Statistics obtained have shown that the growing emphasis on competence is shifting voter sentiment away from such traditional power bases. Candidates perceived as relying on political pedigree rather than proven ability risk being viewed as entitled, alienating voters who demand fresh, results-oriented leadership.
The focus on competence is opening the door for non-traditional candidates, technocrats, business leaders, or community advocates, who can demonstrate practical expertise and innovative ideas.
These newcomers, unburdened by the baggage of long political careers, may outshine career politicians by presenting clear, evidence-based plans for Nasarawa’s development.
An analysis of data obtained from the public perception survey also indicates that Nasarawa’s electorate is increasingly frustrated with the recycling of familiar political figures across elections. Career politicians, often seen as part of this cycle, may face voter fatigue, particularly among urban and youth demographics who associate repeated candidacies with stagnation.
Track record as a performance parameter
Followed closely in our survey, is Track Record which placed third approximately 18.5% approvals rating. A candidate’s past performance, whether in public office or private endeavors, significantly influences voter perception.
The track record of service will be a decisive factor in the 2027 Nasarawa state governorship election as voters increasingly prioritise candidates with tangible achievements over mere promises.
Amid on-going challenges like poor infrastructure, healthcare gaps, and unemployment, the electorate is demanding leaders with a proven history of impactful public service, whether in government, private sector, or community initiatives.
Career politicians, often linked to repetitive tenures with limited visible results, may face backlash as voters scrutinise their past contributions. This shift could marginalise career politicians, favouring aspirants with credible, verifiable service histories, thus reshaping voter preferences in 2027.
Zoning for questions of fairness and inclusivity
While the survey did not single out individual aspirants, political watchers believe it carries significant implications for both the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) and the opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), especially as both prepare to zone their tickets.
A stronger indicator suggests that miscalculating the zoning arrangement could pose significant risks for political parties in Nasarawa state as they approach the 2027 governorship election. In a state characterised by diverse ethnic groups, complex political loyalties, and heightened voter scrutiny, we can report, based on our statistics, that such moves may undermine party stability and electoral prospects.
Nasarawa voters value consistency and reliability in political parties, especially amid widespread distrust in governance. Jettisoning established trends or policies may signal desperation or lack of direction, eroding public confidence.
With voters prioritising trust and track records, as evidenced by growing demands for credible leadership in urban centers like Lafia and Keffi, parties perceived as unstable could struggle to convince an electorate wary of untested or hastily adopted candidates.
In addition, giving reasons as to why they feel strongly about zoning, some of the reasons advanced suggest that grassroots movements, increasingly influential in shaping voter sentiment, may view such actions as a betrayal of community interests, favoring parties that demonstrate commitment to continuity and established norms.
Jettisoning Zoning, therefore, could destabilise any political party in Nasarawa state, weakening its chances in the 2027 governorship election.
To succeed, parties must balance the need for renewal with the preservation of unity, trust, and grassroots support, ensuring that any changes align with voter priorities like credibility, service, and ethnic representation. Failure to do so presents the risk of ceding grounds to more cohesive and strategic opponents in a highly competitive electoral landscape.
Religion takes the back seat
In the 2027 Nasarawa state governorship election, religion is poised to take a backseat as voters prioritise competence, ethnic representation, and tangible development, our survey has shown. The state’s balanced religious demography, history of tolerance, and evolving voter priorities – driven by youth, urban influence, and socio-economic challenges – suggest that faith will not be a key determinant of the next governor.
Career politicians relying on religious affiliations may struggle to connect with an electorate demanding results, while candidates who demonstrate inclusive, results-oriented leadership are likely to gain favour.
As Nasarawa’s political landscape evolves, the ability to address pressing governance issues will outweigh religious considerations, shaping a more pragmatic and performance-driven election in 2027.
…Kwanta, a political analyst, sent this piece from Lafia