Nigeria could face a new wave of economic headwinds if changes to U.S. trade policies under President Donald Trump materialize, according to a new report by the strategy consulting arm of PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC).
The report, titled “Global Economic Policy Changes and Implications for Nigeria,” paints a sobering picture of Nigeria’s exposure to global trade shifts, warning that heightened tariffs, trade barriers, and the possible expiration of key programs like the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) could severely disrupt the country’s access to crucial markets.
Nigeria, the second-largest AGOA beneficiary after South Africa, exported $1.76 billion worth of goods to the United States in 2024 under the program.
If AGOA benefits are not renewed or are curtailed, Nigeria risks losing significant market access for key exports including crude oil, agricultural products, and manufactured goods.
“The removal of AGOA trade privileges would dramatically erode Nigeria’s competitiveness in the U.S. market,” the report warned. “It could trigger a decline in export volumes, reduce foreign exchange earnings, and deepen economic vulnerabilities.”
Oil, already facing global price pressures, would be particularly exposed. The report also flagged the risk of targeted U.S. crude oil import bans or sanctions, which could further isolate Nigerian energy exports and sharply contract foreign currency inflows.
Global supply chain disruptions driven by escalating U.S. tariffs could significantly increase the cost of importing critical goods such as fuel, machinery, and consumer products into Nigeria.
This, the report warns, could ignite runaway inflation at a time when household incomes are already strained.
Adding to the pressure, mass deportations of Nigerian workers from the United States—a policy option floated by parts of Trump’s political base—could slash remittance inflows, a vital foreign exchange source.
Nigeria received over $20 billion in remittances annually in recent years, and a major reduction would undermine household spending and increase fiscal strain.
“A sharp fall in remittances would further squeeze domestic consumption, depress economic activity, and worsen poverty levels,” the report noted.
Moreover, the potential suspension of U.S. aid to Nigeria—affecting healthcare, education, and infrastructure projects—could widen fiscal deficits, forcing the government to rely even more heavily on external borrowing.
The report also pointed to risks stemming from surging U.S. domestic oil production, which could create a global oversupply, depress oil prices below Nigeria’s budget benchmarks, and deepen revenue shortfalls.
“Without strategic policy responses and deeper diplomatic engagement, Nigeria risks being caught flat-footed by external shocks that could severely destabilize its economy,” the report warned.