As the days inch closer to the 2027 general elections, like other states where politicking has began in earnest, Kebbi state is quietly shaping up for a fierce showdown. The likely faceoff will be between the incumbent Governor Nasir Idris and his former political ally suddenly turned adversary, Abubakar Malami, the former minister of justice and now a chieftain of the African Democratic Congress (ADC). The seeming confrontation is unfortunate, but it has become normal for Nigerian politicians, especially the desperate ones whose obsession to grab power knows no bounds.
Certainly, many would wonder and possibly ask: How did the once cordial relationship between Nasir Idris and Abubakar Malami break down so spectacularly? Well, as someone who closely followed political dynamics in Kebbi state leading up to the 2023 elections and prevailing happenings, I can shed some light on the series of events that set the stage for the current standoff.
Let us rewind to late 2022, when the then President Muhammadu Buhari issued a directive to all serving ministers and political appointees with intentions to contest the 2023 general elections to resign on or before May 16, 2022. At the time, speculations were rife that Malami would resign and contest the governorship in Kebbi, but he never did.
In fact, what Nigerians didn’t know then was that Malami had already manoeuvred to secure the blessings of the then Governor Abubakar Atiku Bagudu. Convinced that Malami would contest, Bagudu persuaded Nasir Idris, a loyal party man, to shelve his governorship ambition and settle for a senatorial seat. But Idris, ever the dutiful party loyalist, decided against even taking up the senate offer. He reasoned that should Bagudu decide to run for the senate, as most governors do at the end of their tenures, he won’t want to be the one to go against his benefactor. So, he instead preferred to contest for a House of Representatives seat and still pledged his unalloyed support and commitment to the APC’s cause and Malami’s aspiration.
But here’s the twist: Malami never truly intended to run for the governorship despite all the genuine sacrifices by Comrade Idris and Governor Bagudu. Having relished the power of the “super minister of justice,” he was not going to just let go. Even more disturbing was that he neither wanted the governorship seat nor wanted anyone else in the APC to clinch it. His strategy, it appears, was to warehouse the governorship seat, create a vacuum, and keep his options open. Fortunately for the APC, Idris learned of these plans just in time and secured the party’s ticket hours before the close of the sale of the nomination forms. The unknown caller who hinted Idris that Malami will not contest is still a hero we celebrate with the hope he’ll one day reveal his identity for a bigger way of appreciation, not from Governor Idris alone, but the entire people of Kebbi state who are now enjoying the dividend of democracy from the present administration of Kauran Gwandu.
In a hindsight, that decision saved the APC from potential disaster. Without Nasir Idris on the ballot, the 2023 elections would have been a clean sweep for the opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), which already managed to secure all the three senate seats and four out of the eight House of Representatives positions in Kebbi state. It was amid the fears of losing the governorship seat that Comrade Nasir Idris’s acceptability was heavily unravelled at the second leg of the election when he overwhelmingly defeated his major challenger, Maj-Gen. Aminu Bande (rtd). And while riding on the popularity of Nasir Idris, APC won 20 out of the 24 state House of Assembly seats.
It was after all the schemings had failed and to salvage his image that Malami, in a bid to hoodwink party stalwarts into believing he’s a loyal party man, was seen in a video declaring that he would never run against Idris. But as we have seen, that’s a statement of convenience.
Fast forward to now, barely two years after that declaration, Malami has defected to the ADC and is now positioning himself as the rallying point of opposition forces. The big question is, what changed?
Well, the answer isn’t hard to deduce. Malami, it seems, wanted to be both the minister of justice and the governor of Kebbi, a political impossibility. When that failed, he calculated that letting the opposition win in 2023 would make the governorship easier to snatch in 2027, with APC backing him from the centre. Even with Idris contesting under the APC, the plan was to orchestrate a defeat and reclaim the seat later.
But things did not go according to his script. Nasir Idris, against the odds and internal sabotage, won the governorship seat and has since been governing with policies that resonate with the people; policies focused on real development, inclusiveness, and social welfare.
This is what Malami cannot stomach. In his worldview, all roads must lead through him. In that sense, he mirrors the late President Buhari, who often commanded a cult of personality. But unlike Buhari, who mellowed into a democrat in his final years, Malami has yet to learn the delicate art of self-restraint in power.
Today, stripped of his federal clout, Malami’s obsession with power is driving him towards political nihilism. Having lost control of the APC machinery in Kebbi, he now seeks relevance in the ADC, a coalition of displaced politicians willing to trade their loyalty for a chance to unseat the incumbent.
This, in essence, is the underbelly of the Kebbi political feud: Malami’s desperation versus Idris’s conscience. One seeks to rewrite history, the other to continue building on the mandate he fought hard to secure.
It is vital for the people of Kebbi to see through the smokescreen. Malami, for all his legal mastery and political manoeuvring, has become a man haunted by his own ambitions. Having wielded so much influence at the centre, the thought of irrelevance appears unbearable to him. In pursuit of that relevance, he is willing to do or say anything, even if it means destabilising the same party he once claimed to serve.
On the other hand, Governor Nasir Idris, despite being a product of party loyalty and compromise, rose above treachery to claim victory for the APC and has since repaid that trust with people-centred governance. From infrastructure interventions to renewed investments in agriculture and education, he is proving that the 2023 gamble to entrust him with the ticket was the right one.
The political crossroads before the people of Kebbi as 2027 draws near is therefore stark: would the people reward the desperation of Malami, who weaponises intrigues and revisionism to stay relevant? Or endorse the conscience of a governor who, despite the odds, has chosen the path of service over sabotage?
Ultimately, power belongs to the people. The coming months will test their memory, their discernment, and resolve to look beyond loud narratives and empty promises. In the theatre of the unfolding drama in Kebbi, one thing is certain: 2027 will not just be an election; it will be a referendum on character.
Bala, a public affairs commentator, writes from Abuja