Insurgency: The horizon is ominous

Repetitive commentaries elicit ennui in me. One thing I cannot stand in life is monotony. Believe me. Commentaries on the calamitous situation in what is now likened to the Nigerian equivalent of Bermuda Triangle (Borno, Yobe and Adamawa states) have dominated this space since the introduction of this column in April 2011… enough to make a book. Well, I refuse to be bored; so, I return to the topic today.
I was actually rattled to the bones when I saw the visuals of the exodus of inhabitants of Mubi in the wake of a frightful invasion of the ancient town by the insurgents. I saw scenes that were unimaginable: frightened fellow Nigerians, including women and children carrying their possessions on their heads and fleeing in droves to God knows where. And I asked myself: “Is this scene from one of those war-torn countries in Africa… like the Central African Republic?”
I struggled to convince myself that the exodus was not a Nigerian origin. But it is! Such an exodus is what defines the state of affairs in the axis: from Gwoza to Gamboru, from Bama to Dikwa and Kala-Balge in Borno state; from Michika to Madagali in Adamawa state and from Gujba to Gulani in Yobe state. The Daily Trust of Monday, November 3, 2014, on its cover page, captured a vivid picture of the conquests by the insurgents. These major communities have been brought under the control of the ragtag army of occupation. The insurgents have amassed a population of over two million Nigerians spreading across 20,000 square kilometres. Is anyone feeling comfortable about this grave situation we are faced with?
Before the state of emergency was introduced in the three states, the situation was not this bad. At worst, the rebels were confined to the Sambisa Forest from where they carried out their hit-and-run operations. From what we are witnessing today, it appears as if the measure has stirred the hornet’s nest. In my reaction to the first declaration in May 2013, I argued in this space that what was needed to crush the madness was not a proclamation of state of emergency. And I foretold its failure. And that these merchants of death, even at their inchoate state, could not be intimidated by a crestfallen military. What was necessary was an all-out war without foreclosing a reprieve for those who might have been brainwashed or forced to take up arms against the state and were willing to surrender.
I became worried when we entered another circle of ceasefire drama a few weeks ago. I crave for cessation of hostilities because of the level of sufferings by those caught in the senseless war. But you do not negotiate a ceasefire from a position of weakness as we appear to be demonstrating at this point in time. The “immortal” Shekau has come out to deny any ceasefire deal with the government. The signals the insurgents are getting are that we have reached our wits’ end. And so, we are eager to lay down our inferior arms. That is why they have mocked the so-called ceasefire supposedly brokered by the Chadian president, Idriss Deby. I wonder how the governments of Borno, Yobe and Adamawa states are coping with the trauma, anxiety and socio-economic dislocations that have been the lot of their people. Living in an environment where you sleep with one eye wide open or you are condemned to be looking over your shoulders with every step taken can be a very nasty experience. Yet, we seem to be carrying on with life at this end as if things are normal. Things are not.
And this is where I share the sentiments by the beleaguered state governments that the insurgents may take over the entire axis. First, it was Gwoza which they have made the headquarters of their caliphate. Then, nine other local government areas have been added. At this rate, what stops them from overrunning the remaining communities? After which they can dream of extending their conquests beyond the axis.
Having come this far, dragging no fewer than 10 major communities under their control coupled with the proclamation of a caliphate, the insurgents are persuaded to believe that they are succeeding in their territorial ambition. We can only take back the conquered space by the force of arms and not rhetoric or dialogue. Their mission is at variance with the democratic dispensation. Such criminal elements should not have been allowed to gain a foothold in that axis let alone capturing over 20,000 square kilometres of our soil. At the rate they are gaining confidence, seeing our troops turning tails, there are more serious dangers ahead.
It is over six months that the Chibok girls were taken into captivity. The hysteria that followed their abduction has died down save for the whimpering from the Abuja-based #BringBackOurGirls campaigners. The stories making the rounds are that the United States in particular is not interested in sharing intelligence with our military the way it is for fear that it might get into the wrong hands. It is the same reasons why we cannot procure needed weapons from them and their allies. So, we have to turn to the black market. The accusation of human rights abuses by our troops is seen as a red herring in some quarters. Every war comes with its collateral damage. The federal government has been told to go after those fueling the insurgency.  A little too late?! The maraunders do not need any sponsors at this stage anymore: they easily overrun military and police formations to procure arms and ammunition; raid banks to secure funds to prosecute their sadistic operations; sack prisons to free inmates and brainwash them into joining their swelling ranks of fighters; storm market places and rustle cattle to feed their army. I see an ominous horizon. I don’t know what our government is seeing… 2015 elections?