The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has concluded its 2025 Article IV Consultation with Nigeria, projecting that the country’s real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will grow by 3.4 per cent in 2025.
In his reaction, the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Mr. Wale Edun, welcomed the release of the Fund’s findings on Nigeria.
This marks an upward revision from the 3.0 percent forecast made in April and reflects modest optimism amid ongoing domestic reforms and external economic headwinds.
The Article IV consultation is the IMF’s annual economic health check for member countries, offering policy recommendations and independent assessments of fiscal, monetary, and structural policies.
According to the IMF Executive Board, Nigeria’s improved growth outlook is anchored on higher domestic oil production, the operationalisation of the Dangote Refinery, and continued resilience in the services sector.
However, the Fund noted that the projected growth “remains below the level required to significantly reduce poverty,” which still affects nearly half of the population.
“Nigeria’s growth prospects are improving but remain fragile,” said Dr. Ijeoma Eze, an economist at the Policy and Development Centre. “The 3.4 per cent GDP forecast is a reflection of reform progress, but it still lags behind the country’s potential and demographic pressures.”
The IMF urged the acceleration of cash transfers to vulnerable households, noting that social safety nets must keep pace with the hardships induced by ongoing economic reforms, including subsidy removals and currency adjustments.
“Accelerating the rollout of cash transfers is essential to cushion reform shocks,” said Kola Adeniran, financial analyst at Vantage Capital Advisory. “Without social protection, reforms risk losing public support and deepening inequality,” it said.
The Fund commended the Nigerian government for its progress on tax reform, particularly the four tax bills signed by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, aimed at streamlining revenue collection and improving fiscal sustainability.
“The tax reforms are a critical step toward building Nigeria’s non-oil revenue base,” said Dr. Tunji Ogunlesi, a public finance expert at the University of Ibadan. “But implementation will require institutional discipline and transparency.”
On the financial sector, the IMF praised the ongoing recapitalization of banks, lauding it as a vital move to reinforce financial system resilience.
It also welcomed efforts to expand financial inclusion, deepen capital markets, and improve regulatory oversight for fintech, mortgages, and crypto currencies.
“The recapitalisation policy, if well-executed, will bolster confidence and improve credit availability,” said Ngozi Ekeoma, a Lagos-based investment consultant. “Stronger banks mean better economic intermediation and resilience to shocks.”
The Fund called on Nigerian authorities to remove barriers to private sector credit expansion, improve data accuracy, and strengthen evidence-based policymaking through capacity development.
“The IMF rightly points out that electricity, security, and access to finance are still major barriers,” noted Dr. Zainab Salisu, a senior economist at the Centre for Development Studies. “You can’t grow a modern economy without resolving these structural bottlenecks.”
“This is not a time for policy reversal or complacency,” concluded Dr. Salisu. “The government must consolidate on recent gains, broaden reform benefits, and keep the social fabric intact.”
…Development excites FG
Edun, in a statement by Director, Information and Public Relations, Ministry of Finance, Mohammed Manga, on Wednesday, Edun expressed appreciation for the IMF’s recognition of the federal government’s ongoing reform efforts and the tangible progress achieved over the past two years.
He said: “These reforms have contributed to notable improvements in Nigeria’s fiscal and external positions, bolstering investor confidence and strengthening the resilience of the economy.”
The minister also welcomed the Fund’s acknowledgement of advancements in the agricultural sector, particularly increased food production, which has contributed to moderating inflation. As of May 2025, headline inflation eased to 22.9%, while food inflation declined to 21.4%—both improvements from the higher levels recorded during the IMF mission.
He further noted the IMF’s positive outlook, which affirms that Nigeria’s economic reforms have positioned the country to better withstand external shocks.
In response to the downside risks highlighted in the IMF’s report—particularly uncertainties in the global economy—the minister reaffirmed the government’s proactive stance.