The spate of unemployment in the country is at an alarming level with analysts saying the country’s dicey security situation is partly driven by unemployment. With the promise of providing jobs, many wonder how President Bola Ahmed Tinubu will turn the situation around; BENJAMIN UMUTEME writes.
After a three year delay, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) announced Thursday last week that the country’s unemployment rate dropped to 4.1 per cent in the first quarter (Q1) of 2023, from 5.3 per cent recorded in the previous quarter. The statistics bureau had in Q4 2020 pegged the unemployment rate at 33.3 per cent.
According to a statement, the statistics bureau said the latest unemployment report adopted a new methodology and presented an in-depth analysis of the labour market compared to the previous methodology that had always been used.
The NBS noted that the last survey was conducted using the 13th ICLS, which was birthed and adopted in 1982 at the International Conference of Labour Statisticians.
Speaking during the launch of the new methodology in Abuja on Thursday, the chief executive officer of NBS, Semiu Adeniran, said the new figure brings the country’s Labour Survey in tandem with international standards.
The survey, according to him, was conducted in collaboration with the World Bank and the International Labour Organisation and has also been adopted by 26 countries in Africa. He added that the figure for the fourth quarter of 2022 was 5.3 per cent.
Adeniran said the new methodology considered employed persons as those who engaged in at least one hour of work during the last seven days the survey was conducted, stressing that the new figure was not to give the new government a good face but to bring up the method used to conduct labour surveys in the country.
Notably, the country’s statistics agency said the drop was not a result of creation of more jobs but a redefinition of the term unemployment in line with the International Labour Organisation (ILO’s) guideline.
In the report, the NBS defined employment as any labour for profit done for even an hour in seven days. The report had stated that about three-quarters of working-age Nigerians were employed – 73.6 per cent in Q4 2022 and 76.7 per cent in Q1 2023.
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) noted that the country’s unemployment rate was 4.1 per cent in the first quarter (Q1) of 2023 and 5.3 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2022.
In the fourth quarter (Q4) of 2020, the bureau had pegged the country’s unemployment rate at 33.3 percent. According to the NBS in a statement, the latest unemployment report adopted a new methodology.
“The latest Nigeria Labour Force Survey (NLFS) report sheds light on the dynamics of the labour market within the country. This report covers the fourth quarter of 2022 and the first quarter of 2023, presenting an in-depth analysis of key labour market indicators such as employment, including unemployment rates, underemployment rates, hours worked, and informal employment.
“The revised methodology aligns with our contemporaries in Africa such as Ghana, Niger, Chad, Cameroon, Benin, Gambia, etc, in line with international best practices,” the NBS noted.
In the new report, the statistics bureau said the unemployment rate declined to 4.1 per cent from 5.3 per cent in Q4 2022. It also stated that the revised methodology defines employed persons as individuals who are working for pay or profit and who worked for at least one hour in the last seven days against 40 hours.
‘Not reflecting realities’
For Professor Uche Uwaleke, the 4.1 per cent unemployment figure for the first quarter of 2023 does not reflect the realities in the labour market.
Prof. Uwaleke, who is the president of the Capital Market Academics of Nigeria (ACMAN), told Blueprint Weekend that the statistics bureau should have used country specific methodology adding that the report by the NBS could cause the government officials to make the wrong decisions.
He said, “I think the unemployment number of 4.1% for quarter 01 in 2023 recently announced by the NBS may not reflect the true situation on ground owing to a number of reasons including the low sample size of under 40,000 persons used in the survey as well as the adoption of the International Labour Organisation guidelines for employment computation which considers employment from the perspective of persons of working age who are engaged in some type of jobs for at least one hour in a week for pay or profit.
“Compared to the old methodology adopted by the NBS, this new methodology which includes apprentices, amounts to significantly lowering the bar and could lead to wrong policy decisions by the government.
“Much as the ILO guideline provides a basis for global comparison, it is important that Nigeria adopts country-specific guidelines which closely reflect unique employment conditions prevalent in the country.”
What’s fuelling unemployment?
In his view, a political economist, Adefolarin Olamilekan, said the structural deficit in the nation’s economy was fuelling unemployment.
According to the economist, the recent employment data released by the NBS further points to the failure of the Nigerian state to reduce the widening gap in the number of Nigerians that are out of jobs.
While noting that the issue of unemployment and how best to tackle it remains a challenge for the government, successive governments, since 1999, have been formulating and implementing policies to reverse unemployment in the country. He stressed that it has led to the creation of different agencies, institutions and ad-hoc programmes to tackle the menace of unemployment in our country.
“In the same light, the government established financial institutions such as Development Bank of Nigeria (DBN), Bank of Industry (BoI), Development Commissions and related institutions like Small Medium. Enterprise Development Agency of Nigeria (SMEDAN) alongside ad-hoc programmes in the likes of YouWin, N-Power, Graduates Internship Programme as a way of generating employment from a public private spectrum.
“Regrettably, there seems to be no headway because the government has failed to understand that the root cause of unemployment is tied practically to the deficit nature of the economy.
“Again, the government has been playing politics with the issue of employment generation by seeking a quick fix approach through ad hoc programs, cosmetic policy that through money at job creation and implementing policy of employment creation from the prism of formal government recruitment into public and civil services and this in particular is area most Nigerians see as the only employment with security,” he said.
Changing the status quo
Adefolarin opined that with insecurity driving unemployment, it is pertinent that the present administration take proactive measures to change the narrative as the past government did.
The Tinubu administration must approach the issue of unemployment with a renewed zeal as it seeks to renew the hope of millions of Nigerians who are gradually losing hope in the government’s ability to turn the economy around.
He said there should be a short to medium-term basis that requires the government to stop wasting scarce resources on cosmetic ad hoc job creation.
“Secondly, the government must strengthen the various agencies saddled with the responsibility of enhancing self employment creation and complementing the private sector job creation drive. In this regard, the likes of SMEDAN, NPC, DBN, BOi and Bank of Agriculture should be supported adequately and monitored effectively.
“In addition we hope to see the Tinubu’s government carry out an audit on the number of employed Nigerians in all federal government agencies and institutions, to ascertain the number of workers due for retirement, underemployed status of some agencies and skills gaps.
“We will not fail to mention that the government should not foreclose revitalisation of the government-owned enterprises and not shy away from creating new ones as better means to participate in the economy and reinvigorate the spirit of providing affordable and accessible goods and services to Nigerians.
“Meanwhile on the long term basis, is addressing the challenges face in the business environment that militate against the private sector employing Nigerians. Here the concern has been the cost of operations within the Nigerian business ecosystem,” he said.
Continuing, he said, “The complaints against the business environment are issues of high energy cost, deplorable road conditions that affect goods and services logistics, absence of required quality technical skills, insecurity amongst others.
“Again, the Tinubu administration must prioritise issues around technical human capacity development by looking to leverage on science, technology and innovation to tackle unemployment. We have grasped the aspect of ICT, but the field of scientific and technological space that could help us take advantage of sectors like mining, steel, metallurgy, and other mineral resources into finished products for local use and export.”