Total world oil demand is anticipated to average 105 mb/d in 2025, bolstered by strong air travel demand and healthy road mobility, including trucking, as well as healthy industrial, construction and agricultural activities in non-OECD countries.
In its Monthly Oil Market Report for May, the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) stated that the global oil demand growth forecast for 2025 is expected to remain at 1.3 mb/d, year-on-year, unchanged from last month’s assessment, the report said.
In the OECD, Americas is expected to lead oil demand growth, supported by an uptick from Asia Pacific. However, OECD Europe is projected to show a minor contraction of about 13 tb/d y-o-y, OPEC said.
“In the non-OECD, oil demand is forecast to grow by about 1.2 mb/d, y-o-y, driven by Other Asia, followed by China, India, the Middle East and Latin America.
“Similarly, capacity additions and petrochemical margins in non-OECD countries – mostly in China and the Middle East – are expected to contribute to oil demand growth,” the oil cartel said.
The report further stated that the forecast for global oil demand growth in 2026 shows a robust growth of about 1.3 mb/d, y-o-y. The OECD is expected to grow by around 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, with OECD Americas again expected to lead oil demand growth, supported by an uptick from OECD Europe and OECD Asia Pacific.
In the non-OECD, oil demand is forecast to increase by 1.2 mb/d, led by Other Asia, followed by India and China, supported by the Middle East and Latin America.
In terms of products, transportation fuels, including gasoline, jet/kerosene and diesel, are projected to drive oil demand growth in 2026, followed by LPG and naphtha. However, residual fuel oil is projected to soften, y-o-y, in 2026.