Nigeria’s headline inflation rate has climbed to 24.23 per cent in March 2025, up from 23.18 per cent in February, signaling deepening economic distress across the country.
The latest figure, obtained from reliable sources within the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) ahead of its formal release, underscores the growing strain on household incomes and the broader economy.
The jump in inflation highlights persistent structural weaknesses, including food insecurity, rising energy costs, and a fragile currency environment that continue to drive up the prices of essential goods and services.
The steepest increases remain in food prices, which are being driven by insecurity in agricultural zones, rising input costs, and poor logistics. The food index has consistently outpaced general inflation over the past year.
“Food inflation remains a ticking time bomb,” said Dr. Kemi Adeyemi, economist at the Lagos Business School. “As long as rural insecurity and logistics bottlenecks persist, the pressure on food prices will continue to drag down household welfare.”
“This inflation trajectory is unsustainable for the average Nigerian,” Dr. Adeyemi emphasized. “Wages are stagnant while prices continue to soar, and unless urgent action is taken, the social consequences could be severe.”
According to a recent market survey, some staple food items such as rice, beans, tomatoes, and yam have doubled in price over the past six months. Transport fares have also surged by over 45 per cent year-on-year.
The latest inflation figure is expected to influence the next monetary policy decision by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN). Analysts predict the CBN may opt for yet another increase in the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) in a bid to control inflation and support the naira.
“The CBN is caught between controlling inflation and stimulating growth,” said Uche Okonkwo, Head of Research at Afrinvest.
“This inflation number adds more weight to the argument for further monetary tightening, but that may come at the cost of credit availability and private sector growth.”
The CBN had previously hiked the MPR to 22.75 per cent in February and 24.75 per cent in March as part of its aggressive tightening strategy.
With inflation now just shy of 25 per cent, analysts warn that if no significant interventions are made—particularly in food production, energy stabilisation, and currency management—the country may witness inflation breach the 25 per cent mark by mid-2025.