Peeping into 2025, Bismarck Rewane, managing director of. Financial Derivatives Company (FDC) Limited sees a year treacherously risky and pregnant with lucrative deals.
He appears not comfortable with the 2005 budget assumptions, saying they are rather optimistic.
‘It is not the roll of the dice but a roll of the eyes that will determine your economic destiny in the year ahead. Based on simple yet complex quadratic equations and simulations, we’ve looked into our crystal ball to present you with some hard facts and forecasts’, said Rewane..
He explained that , the exchange rate is the price of the dollar in Naira terms (N1,650/$). It is the factor price that brings the domestic and external economies into equilibrium.
‘We believe the naira will appreciate mildly in 2025, starting in February and reaching N1,550/$ in first quarter.
‘Our projections and estimates are based on the following: crude oil price at $70pb, oil production at 1.4mbpd, gradual but limited policy reform efforts, and modest FDI inflows, amongst others’ said FDC.
‘Economic growth will be challenged in 2025 but is expected to be better than in 2024. The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) posits that real GDP growth will strengthen in 2025-26 as the Dangote oil refinery ramps up production.
‘This development is expected to displace fuel imports and boost exports. In line with this, disinflation—anticipated to begin in the second quarter of’ 2025—along with interest-rate cuts and greater exchange-rate stability, is likely to foster improved consumer and business confidence. Hence, we project GDP growth of 3.6 per cent in 2025 and 3.5 per cent in 2026’, said Rewane.
He believes that, in 2025, the Nigerian economy will be marked by fiscal and monetary policy efforts to reduce food prices. We expect an extension of the import duty waiver and possible data changes like a GDP rebasing and inflation basket reconstitution.
‘However, some of the key assumptions underlying the 2025 budget are over optimistic’ he said.
:’The inflation target of 15 per cent, down from the current level of 34.6 per cent sounds far-fetched’, said Rewane.
