Uncertain future of frontier exploration, oil drilling in the North

Recent reports indicating a halt in oil exploration activities in Northern Nigeria have raised concerns, especially given the significant investments and legal frameworks supporting these endeavours. President Muhammadu Buhari’s inauguration of the Kolmani and Egbeni-A oil wells in 2021 and 2023, respectively, marked a milestone in the long-speculated presence of oil reserves in the North.

The Petroleum Industry Act of 2021 established the Frontier Exploration Fund, aiming to expand oil prospecting beyond traditional areas. Buhari’s administration targeted regions such as Anambra, Dahomey, Bida, Sokoto, Chad, and Benue troughs, as well as the Ultra-Deepwater Niger Delta, all presumed to contain substantial hydrocarbon reserves.

In March 2023, just before the end of his tenure, Buhari launched the Ebenyi-A Exploration Well in Nasarawa state, expressing optimism about the project’s potential to stimulate economic activities, generate government revenue, and enhance national prosperity. The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) spearheaded these efforts, collaborating with private entities and regional development commissions.

However, recent reports indicate that both the Egbenyi-A and Kolmani projects have come to a standstill. The Egbenyi-A site is reportedly “under lock and key,” with no ongoing exploration activities. This sudden cessation has disappointed local communities, who had anticipated infrastructure improvements and economic benefits. Similarly, the Kolmani River Field, projected to produce 1 billion barrels of oil reserves and 14 billion cubic meters of gas, appears to have stalled despite a $3 billion investment.

The lack of transparency surrounding these developments is concerning. The NNPCL has not provided explanations for the work stoppage, leaving room for speculation and debate. This situation exacerbates tensions between the North and South, potentially undermining national unity.

While sceptics have long questioned the viability of Northern oil exploration, proponents argue for its potential. NNPCL Group Managing Director, Mele Kyari, has cited successful hydrocarbon discoveries in neighbouring Niger and Chad as justification for continued exploration. Former Minister of State for Petroleum Resources, Timipre Sylva, emphasized the enduring importance of hydrocarbons in the global energy mix, countering arguments about the futility of oil exploration in an era of renewable energy.

Given the significant public investment in these projects, the government owes citizens a clear explanation of the current situation. The Tinubu administration, as a continuation of the previous government, should address the reasons behind the work stoppage at exploration sites, assess the commercial viability of oil exploration in the North, decide whether to continue or permanently halt these projects, and develop a plan to address private sector investments in these ventures.

To make an informed decision, President Tinubu should consider establishing a high-level committee of experts to evaluate the feasibility and strategic importance of Northern oil exploration. This evaluation should consider economic, environmental, and geopolitical factors.

Furthermore, the administration must address the broader issue of frontier exploration as mandated by the Petroleum Industry Act. Whether the decision is to pursue or abandon these projects, clear communication and decisive action are essential to maintain public trust and economic stability.

The future of oil exploration in Northern Nigeria stands at a crossroads. The Tinubu administration faces the challenge of balancing economic potential, environmental concerns, and national unity. Whatever the outcome, transparency and decisive leadership will be crucial in charting the course for Nigeria’s energy sector.

President Tinubu should summon the courage to set up a high-powered professional committee to advise him on whether to sustain oil exploration in the North or not. This committee should thoroughly examine the economic viability, environmental impact, and geopolitical implications of continued exploration. Their findings would provide a solid foundation for informed decision-making.

The administration must also consider the implications of their decision on private sector involvement and existing investments. A clear strategy for addressing these concerns should be developed, regardless of whether the exploration continues or ceases.

Ultimately, the government’s decision on frontier exploration will have far-reaching consequences. It must align with the provisions of the Petroleum Industry Act while also considering the broader national interest. President Tinubu’s approach to this issue will be a significant test of his administration’s ability to navigate complex economic and political challenges. And he needs to muster the political will and courage to do what is in the nation’s interest.

In conclusion, the uncertainty surrounding oil exploration in Northern Nigeria demands immediate attention and decisive action. The government must balance the potential economic benefits against environmental concerns and national unity. Through transparent communication, expert consultation, and bold decision-making, the Tinubu administration has the opportunity to set a clear direction for Nigeria’s energy future, one that serves the best interests of all Nigerians.