The issue of zoning and rotational presidency in Nigeria has sparked intense debate. While not constitutional, the practice has been informally adopted to promote unity and balance of power between the North and the South. This arrangement has been seen as a way to ensure that different regions have a chance to hold the highest office.
The rotation of power can foster national unity and reduce regional tensions. However, it also raises questions about meritocracy and the qualifications of candidates. As Nigeria navigates its complex political landscape, finding a balance between regional representation and individual merit will be crucial for the country’s prosperity and stability.
Since 1999, Nigeria has seen a rotation of presidents from different regions. The list includes Olusegun Obasanjo (South, 1999-2007), Umaru Musa Yar’Adua (North, 2007-2010), Goodluck Jonathan (South, 2010-2015), Muhammadu Buhari (North, 2015-2023) Bola Tinubu (South, 2023 till date). The pattern of alternating between the North and South continues, reflecting an informal arrangement aimed at promoting regional balance in Nigeria’s political leadership.
The North must remember the support it received from the South during the Buhari administration. Notably, no prominent southerner contested against him in 2019, showcasing a sense of unity and cooperation. This gesture of goodwill is worth acknowledging, especially when considering the power dynamics within the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), where figures like Ahmad Lawan and Yahaya Bello hold significant influence.
Mallam Nasir El-Rufai’s stance on power shift in the 2022 APC presidential primaries highlighted the importance of rotation and fairness in Nigeria’s politics. El-Rufai’s advocacy for power shift, despite being from the same party as Lawan and Bello, demonstrates a commitment to equitable representation. The North-South relationship in Nigeria’s politics is complex, and recognising the support received from the South during Buhari’s presidency can foster mutual understanding and cooperation.
The APC’s zoning dynamics have significantly influenced its presidential ambitions. Former Senate President Ahmad Lawan and former Governor Yahaya Bello of Kogi state had expressed interest in the presidency. However, their aspirations were reportedly met with strong opposition from serving governors, including El-Rufai, who emphasised the importance of adhering to zoning arrangements within the party.
The vehement opposition to President Tinubu’s second term from some key northern political actors raises serious concerns. Surprisingly, some of those who previously supported and promoted Tinubu in the North now seem to be turning against him. This shift has sparked speculation about the motivations for their actions. The debate over zoning and power rotation continues to shape the APC’s decisions and alliances, reflecting broader discussions about representation and power sharing in Nigeria’s politics.
A primary reason cited for this opposition is the desire to pave the way for a northern candidate, reflecting the ongoing debate about power rotation and zoning in Nigeria’s politics. Despite President Tinubu’s achievements and efforts, some critics are prioritising regional aspirations over his accomplishments. This development highlights the complex dynamics of Nigeria’s politics, where regional interests often intersect with party loyalty.
Dr. Hakeem Baba-Ahmed’s recent interview has added fuel to the fire, with some perceiving his comments as a direct conspiracy against President Tinubu. Baba-Ahmed previously served as a political adviser in the Tinubu government, making his current stance particularly striking. The juxtaposition of his past role with his current criticisms has raised questions about the underlying motives and potential political realignments within the party.
The current posture of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) raises concerns about its ability to reclaim power in 2027. Since losing power in 2015, the party has struggled to reconnect with the masses. The party’s woes are further complicated by the influence of the Minister of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Barrister Nyesom Wike, who is perceived to be controlling the PDP structure. Wike’s role in the 2023 presidential elections, particularly his stance against Atiku Abubakar, has been cited as evidence of his significant influence within the party.
Wike’s opposition to Atiku’s candidacy was largely based on zoning arrangements, given the eight years of the Buhari administration (North), Wike’s consistent stance on zoning has led many to believe that he is working to undermine the PDP in 2027. In a recent interview, Wike explicitly stated that the PDP is not ready for 2027, further fueling speculation about his intentions and the party’s internal crisis.
In contrast, the Social Democratic Party (SDP) has garnered attention under the leadership of its National Chairman, Shehu Gabam. Gabam’s efforts to remodel the nation’s democracy and position the SDP as an alternative platform for Nigerians in 2027 are notable. The SDP’s prospects appear promising, particularly given the challenges faced by the PDP. With Gabam at the helm, the SDP may offer a viable opposition in Nigeria.
The North’s persistent challenges of poverty, insecurity, and unemployment raise questions about its development trajectory. Despite opportunities for economic and political growth, the region struggles with endemic issues. The question arises as to whether the North should prioritise supporting President Tinubu’s second term, given the benefits it received from zoning arrangements, or work against him to support a southern candidate.
The North’s decision may hinge on weighing regional interests against national policies. The zoning arrangement and the North’s historical support for the Tinubu administration could influence its support for the president.
The voters seem tired of the northern elites’ game plan, which appears to serve only their interests. If the same people who campaigned for Tinubu in 2023, touting him as the best option for the North and Nigeria at large, are now working against his second term, they may be met with resistance from northern voters who feel deceived. The inconsistency in their actions and words may be perceived as a betrayal of the trust and mandate given to them by the people.
Northern voters are well-informed and won’t be fooled twice by politicians who switch allegiances or pursue personal interests at the expense of the people’s needs. They expect consistency, loyalty, and genuine commitment from their leaders, rather than political flip-flops that seem to prioritise individual gains over collective progress. Having witnessed the dynamics of power and politics, northern voters are likely to hold their leaders accountable for their actions and decisions, demanding authenticity and integrity in the process.
The North’s stance on Tinubu’s potential second term seems driven by regional sentiments rather than policy opposition. With key appointments like Nuhu Ribadu as National Security Adviser, Abubakar Badaru as Defence Minister, Bello Matawalle as State Minister for Defence, Senator Abubakar Kyari in Agriculture, and Muhammad Bello Maiha in Livestock, the region has significant representation in the Tinubu government.
Given the potential economic benefits, particularly in the livestock industry under Maiha, the North may find it strategic to support Tinubu’s second term, leveraging opportunities for growth and development.