Tinubu’s one year: Unemployment down, other economic indicators menacing – Analysis

A cursory look at the economic performance of President Tinubu in the last one year indicates significant achievement made in reduction of the number of people who were unemployed or underemployed before he came to office.

Another plus for the period under review is that the stock market, which is known to mirror the larger economy did excellently well.

The market capitalisation rose from N30.36 trillion in 2023 to N55.22 trillion in 2024, while crude oil production rose from 1.43 million barrels per day to 1.45 million barrels per day during the period.

Outside that, most other indicators portray a grim economy.

Analysts and economist who spoke with Blueprint said there is still a lot of work to do.

But so far, unemployment rate, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), reduced marginally from 5.40 per cent in 2023 to 5.0 per cent in 2024.

underemployment also came down from 12.70 per cent in 2023 to 1212.30 per in 2024.

Foreign trade balance improved from N996.7 million to N1.89 billion n the last one year.

Analysts however expressed skeptical position concerning the development.

But Davies Ola, a business man told Blueprint that,, so far the statistics presently available is that of the first quarter of 2014, and subsequent release will highlight the effect of companies that have closed shop due to high operating cost emanating from removal of fuel subsidy and increasing interest rates.

Data glimpsed from Proshare shows that, exchange rate of the naira to the dollar witnessed the local currency depreciating from N464/$ in 2023 to N1,482 to the dollar in 2024.

Analysts attributed the sharp depreciation to the foreign exchange policy that were not backed up by increased production that would have supplied the needed foreign exchange.

Also, statistics indicate that the price of petrol during the period under review saw petrol price increase from N190 per litre to over N600 in most filling stations outside the NNPC.

Number of those who spoke with Blueprint continue to heap the blame on Present Tinubu who did not look well enough before leaping.

“Mr. President should have weigh the pros and the coins before announcing first day in office of such a serious policy decision”, said Gabriel Ojomo, an international business man.

Worse still is the fact that inflation, the average change in prices of goods and commodities rose from 22.22 per cent in 2023 to 33.69 per cent April this year.

Of course in an attempt to arrest inflation, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) kept upping the benchmark rate. 

the resultant effect is that interest rates went up from 18.00 per cent to 25.25 per cent during the period.

Perhaps the cumulative effect of this is the increasing misery of the people. According to data, Nigeria’s misery index rose from 27.52 per cent to 38.69 per cent during the period under review.

During the period under review, total public debts rose from N46.2 trillion to N97.3 trillipn.

in a hid to defend the naira, foreign reserves fell from $35.09 billion to $32.74 billion.

Analysts at Proshare surmised that the twelve months of the Tinubu administration have been a dizzying merry-go-round of policies, programmes, and plans. Policy somersaults have been as frequent as flipping fried plantain on a roadside plantain seller’s vat. From a silent tolerance of creeping subsidy in the sale of premium motor spirit (PMS) to the estimated N9trn in ways and means expenditure in the administration’s first six months, walking through the fiscal policy gauntlet has been a nightmare.

Some of the administration’s challenges have been self-inflicted while others have been inherited. The administration’s goals have resulted from poor policy alignments and an absence of a comprehensive strategy that integrates budgets into national development plans and medium-term financial strategies.