In recent weeks, the ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) seems to have flung open a new strategy of weakening the base of the All Progressives Congress (APC) in the Southwest. From the Afenifere to the Yoruba Council of Elders and the notorious Odua People’s Congress (OPC), the PDP has suddenly become a ‘darling’ of pressure groups in the heart of Yoruba land. Will it last? NASIR DAMBATTA revisits the new intrigues of vocal sections of the Yoruba political elites and the effect on the fortunes of opposition APC, ahead of the forthcoming elections
Weeks ago in Ibadan the crème de la crème of Yoruba land politics assembled for what turned out to be an unexpected endorsement of President Goodluck Jonathan’s continuity in power beyond 2015. In a carnival-like gathering that took pundits off-guard, speaker after another took turns to celebrate what they believed were the achievements of the Jonathan administration. It was not about roads, water and electricity – as many would expect. It was about the final document of last year’s National Conference, in which the gathering gave the President a clean bill of continuity. It was generally agreed at that gathering, that the agitation of the Yoruba nation, over badly-needed restructuring of the polity had never found expression until Jonathan convened the National conference.
The recent developments in the southwest point to two major issues, namely that the shift of the date for this year’s general elections has cooled the embers of political tension and the PDP is finally finding its feet; or just smarting from what many believe is an imminent defeat at the polls. All of a sudden the entire country has caught the bug of electioneering campaign, with hitherto quiet pro-Jonathan pressure groups coming to the front burner of campaign activities. For many observers, the political terrain has become less fearsome than it was before the postponement of election and the PDP’s new foot-soldiers that lie in wait for the appropriate moment is being unleashed across the nation. It was not until the announcement of the shift in the lections date reports revealed some ‘750 women’ defecting to the PDP in Sokoto state. Another significant number of APC supporters reportedly decamped in Katina state days ago.
Some analysts had earlier predicted that the postponement of the polls, beyond the popular belief that the Jonathan administration wanted to crush insurgency, the underlying objective was to buy time and re-oil the PDP vote-gathering machine ahead of the toughest election since 1999, when democracy came forth. More than a decade ago, Alhaji Umaru Shinkafi once observed that “the PDP is vote-gathering machine, hurriedly put together to dominate a hasty transition programme”. Year later, Malam Nasir ElRufa’i now a powerful force within the opposition APC told the world that the PDP could rule for as long as it wished – in what was considered a celebration of the party’s strength when he was the minister of the Federal Capital Territory. Recently, even Nigeria’s First Lady, patience Jonathan was said to have sung a near-similar song to the one sang by Elrufa’i years back.
The Southwest has thrown many analysts off balance by its series of recent endorsements of President Jonathan’s continuity designs. Some of these analysts do not buy into the idea that making the concept of restricting a part of the major highlights of the confab report is enough justification to give the man unalloyed loyalty. Some believe that the Yoruba political elite hardly portray their political actions in such a “highly patronising” manner except some pecuniary benefits were involved. Others see the new development as part of a Yoruba elite’s political strategy to mislead the PDP and its President. Those who disagree with this point of view insist that for the new “political mentor” of Yorubaland to have a one million man march in solidarity with him signposts an effort by the Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu to defy the PDP’s new game plan for the Southwest ahead of the polls. On the campaign trail in Ibadan, shortly after the Afenifere/YCE mobilisation, President Jonathan made statements that showed a veiled attempt to massage the ego of the southwest political elites, along with an indirect way of having a go at both the Asiwaju and Buhari. His words: “Those parading themselves as opposition leaders in this region are hypocrites, otherwise how can they be doing things contrary to established norms and beliefs of the people.” To hit the nail on the head he goes further to say: “The southwest believes in human rights, the people believe in the rule of law, yet those parading themselves as leaders, who once claimed to be part of National Democratic Coalition (NADECO) are following somebody that just clamped people into jail for as long as 300 years without following due process”.
Days before Jonathan’s campaign visit, Governor Mimiko told a packed audience inside the Mapo hall: “Let me salute President Goodluck Jonathan for his bold and momentous move as well as his focused leadership which was demonstrated through his compliance with the agitations by Nigerians to debate their collective future. Convening the 2014 National Conference was indeed a historic assignment that we (Yorubas) are proud of and as a people, we must do everything possible to ensure that the Confab recommendations get implemented.”
The real message embedded in Mimiko’s speech came midway through his submission, when he noted thus: “No doubt, Nigeria has passed through various stages of national dialogues before without being able to emplace a constitutional and political arrangement that is accommodating enough to sustain the dedication and patriotism of many. The constitutional and governmental experiments that we have had seem inadequate to capture the essence of those things that have the inherent capacity to unite us despite our ethnic and religious cleavages. The Confab report when implemented, will create room for each State to have its own constitution, its own police force, its own prison service, can create its own local governments, can build its own Airports, Seaports and Railways and in addition…” Observers interpreted the governor’s posturing as indirectly saying the President should be allowed to continue, if only to implement the confab report.
As for the Afenifere, its National leader, Chief Reuben Fasoranti in his brief remark at the Ibadan summit emphasized the need for the Yoruba race to come together as one to be able to face the challenges ahead to ensure the realization of the “restructuring of Nigeria”.
The Deputy Leader of Afenifere, Chief Ayo Adebanjo was even more direct when he said “the important interest of the entire Yoruba race especially on the Yoruba belief and continuous agitation for the restructuring of Nigeria which President Jonathan too believes in unlike the contrary views of the All Progressives Congress (APC) leadership.
“Goodluck Ebele Jonathan is important to the Yoruba nation; we should know where we are coming from and where we are going. We want to restructure Nigeria; it is only the Afenifere that has been consistent in the clamour for the restructuring of Nigeria”. He argued that the President responded positively by convening last year’s National conference of eminent Nigerians. He then opined: “I heard some of those not in support of the Confab shouting Change, change here and Afenifere is saying the change we need is not the change of personality (from Jonathan to Buhari) but change in constitution.”
Another chieftain of Afenifere and National Chairman of the Social Democratic Party (SDP), Chief Olu Falae also declared thus: “there is no going back in Afenifere’s endorsement of President Jonathan’s as its Presidential candidate for the March 28 election. No blackmail can make us change our position on supporting Jonathan”.
Professor Dupe Olatunbosun on his part, argued that for more than two decades, the Yorubas under the leadership of the late sage, Chief Obafemi Awolowo have been at the centre of the agitation for the convocation of a National conference until the year 2014 by President Goodluck Jonathan, saying, “please allow me to congratulate the Yoruba nation in particular and indeed all Nigerians that at last, their desire to come together to dialogue how they should be governed came to reality.”
The Ibadan summit was a parody of who-is-who of Yoruba land. There was the Afenifere Leader,Pa Reuben Fasoranti,YCE President General Adeyinka Adebayo; Chief Ayo Adebanjo, Chief Olu Falae, Chief Richard Akinjide (SAN);Dr Femi Okunrinboye, Dr Kunle Olajide, Bishop Ayo Ladigbolu; Alhaji Shuaib Oyedokun, Chief Abiola Ogundokun; Senator Iyiola Omisore,Dr Muyiwa Oladimeji and the founder of Oodua Peoples’ Congress (OPC),Dr Fredrick Faseun. There were, of course some officials of the Jonathan administration, notably ministers. There were serving senators and House of Representatives members at the summit.
The unfolding events have so far created the impression that the tables are turning somewhat for the opposition APC, which ahs as one of its major strongholds the south-west. Pundits maintain that the APC’s presidential candidate, General Muhammadu Buhari’s chances of winning the forthcoming presidential polls depends largely on his formidable base in the south-west.
“Take away the South-West and it would be smooth walk-over for Jonathan”, one of the die-hard pro-Jonathan supporter and chieftain of Yoruba Council of Elders (YCE) enthusiastically told Blueprint.
As things stand, it is unclear even to the opposition APC strategist in the southwest why the tables seem to be turning in one of the strongest home base of the progressive among the Yoruba elite. Could it be money changing hands? Or were all those who declared support for the APC in the beginning merely pretending? Will the fresh endorsement of President Jonathan in the heart of Yorubaland change the fortunes of the APC? Is Tinubu still firmly in control? Will the new Jonathan hurricane last long? These are the questions on the minds of many political observers, answers to which could be found when Nigerians finally use the power of the ballot in a matter of weeks.