The re-election of Donald Trump as President of the United States of America (USA) on 5th November, 2024, came with foreboding consequences. This is more so, considering the US strategic collaboration with Africa in areas like trade and investments, immigration, climate change and adoption of an inward-looking disposition that places local interest above global focus for development. For Trump who is widely accused of inspiring an attack on the Capitol in 2021 when he lost the 2020 election to Joe Biden, his presidential comeback has thrown a round of apprehensions among some countries, especially in Africa.
Trump’s comeback has reset certain issues hitherto seen as a product of a strong US president. The Russia-Ukraine war, immigration at the Mexican border, the Middle East crisis, following the Israeli-Hezbollah war of attrition and destruction, are some of the issues that will dominate global discourse following Trump’s comeback.
Against the backdrop of his re-election, world leaders congratulated the man whose second coming is set to make America rekindle its focus in dealing with domestic problems. For Africa, the return of Trump does not excite the continent, but casts a long shadow of uncertainty for many African leaders. Though some analysts have expressed optimism that Africa under Trump’s second term may pursue reciprocal economic and development partnerships between the continent and the US, critics opine that Africa will witness a reduction of aids and immigration restrictions.
In his first term in the White House, critics had lampooned Trump for embarking on funding cuts and increased adversarial position in cutting down on immigration. In his second term, Trump is likely to not let go of those issues that have been reviewed by the Biden administration which is more focused on building collaboration with the international community, rather pursuing an isolationist agenda favoured by Trump. Under Biden, the US has created an impression that Africa is a valued partner in advancing economic prosperity and integration. For example, the USA was engaged in investing in the Lobito Corridor – a rail line stretching through Angola, the Democratic Republic of Congo and Zambia that will be used to transport critical raw materials. In 2023, the US said it had invested more than $22 billion since the election of Biden as president.
There are palpable fears that Trump’s return is likely to lead to a reversal of these gains in trade and investment. The African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) that has enabled African countries to export some of their products to the US without paying taxes is due to expire in 2025. In his first term, Trump had declared that he would not renew it at expiration. During the 2024 campaign, the now re-elected president said he would implement a universal 10% income tariff on all foreign-made goods. The implication is that such an action would make imported goods more expensive. Already, the fear over the expiration of AGOA could have significant negative impacts for African countries. The Brookings Institution in the US has predicted that South Africa’s GDP is likely to shrink by 0.06%”. The reason for this, according to the Brookings Institution, is that many goods from South Africa, including minerals and metals, are excluded from AGOA.
Under Trump, aids to Africa is set to be cut down. Trump’s last administration was repeatedly engaged in slashing foreign aids worldwide that was opposed by Congress in areas where such aids enjoy bipartisan support. According to the Council of Foreign Relations, a Washington think-tank, had the cuts been implemented, “traditional US policies with respect to health, democracy promotion, and security assistance in Africa would have been eviscerated.” Fears are mounting that Trump may shut down Pepfar, a long-running US initiative that assists Africa in fighting HIV in Africa. In 2023, Republican lawmakers kicked against Pepfar, claiming that it was a programme that promotes abortion services. Its survival beyond its short-term extension to March 2025 is likely to have its door shut down by Trump whose anti-abortion stance is not in doubt.
One other area of concern for Africa is that Trump has vowed to deport one million people living illegally in the US. In 2022, no fewer than 13,000 African migrants were recorded at the US-Mexico border, according to US Customs and Border Protection data. By 2023, the figure quadrupled to 58,000 as a result of thousands fleeing from Africa over war, poverty and persecution. In his first term, Trump curbed immigration from African countries, including Nigeria, Eritrea, Sudan and Tanzania. Many Africans fear that a comeback Trump is likely to press hard for the deportation of illegal migrants.
However, Trump’s second coming offers an opportunity to African countries to look inwards and begin resolving the challenges of insecurity that have left mindless devastation and turned Africa into a continent of misery. African leaders must seize the present opportunity by seeking Trump’s assistance in combating insurgents and other militant groups working hard to make Africa a war zone. Blueprint calls on leaders of the continent to seek collaboration with the incoming Trump administration in tackling insecurity plaguing their respective countries in order to expedite development and attract investments.