Tomorrow, Nigerians will go to the polls to choose their president and National Assembly members for the next four years. BODE OLAGOKE takes a look at the effectiveness of the recently signed Abuja peace accord among the presidential candidates.
The 2015 general elections, initially scheduled for February 14 and 28, respectively had generated heat in the polity before they were rescheduled for March 28 and April 11.
Analysts say the stakes in the elections are very high. Evidently, the contenders have been talking tough through their various spokespersons believing that they deserve to win. Little wonder then, that the current confusion in the atmosphere is necessitated by their usual shenanigans.
The attempts by the parties to outdo one another are already causing tension and apprehension as signs of possible electoral violence are already visible in many states. The fears are being generated by hate speech and bad-taste campaigns rather than issue based ones.
And as count down to the final hours begins the horse trading is unprecedented further over heating the polity. It is worrisome that the spate of political violence is on the rise as reports will confirm.
According to a report on pre-election violence by the National Human Rights Commission (NHRC), in 50 days from December 2014 to February 2015, 61 incidences of electoral violence occurred in 22 states.
Chairman, Governing Board of NHRC, Prof Chidi Odinkalu, said the incidences of violence were captured from all the six geo-political zones.
Odinkalu said 58 persons were killed in the elections-related violence across the country, barely two weeks to the earlier Feb. 14 presidential election.
While regretting the 2011 violence, which killed over 800 people including 11 NYSC members, he said the scale of the 2015 pre-election violence is alarming.
To prevent or mitigate a repeat of the 2011 incident, and to ensure that their supporters do not resort to violence, the famous Abuja Peace Accord was signed by the 14 Presidential candidates and political parties on Jan. 14.
The Accord on the “Prevention and Acceptance of Elections Results by Presidential Candidates and Chairpersons of Political Parties Contesting the 2015 General Elections”, has five-point agenda as follows:
“To run issues-based campaigns at national, state and local governments levels; in this we pledge to refrain from campaigns that will involve religious incitement, ethnic or tribal profiling, both ourselves and agents acting in our names;
“To refrain from making or causing to make in our names or that of our party, any public statements, pronouncements, declarations or speeches that have the capacity to incite any form of violence, before, during and after the elections;
“To commit ourselves and political parties to the monitoring of the adherence to this Accord by a National Peace Committee made up of respected statesmen and women, traditional and religious leaders;
“All institutions of government including INEC and security agencies must act and be seen to act with impartiality;
“To forcefully and publicly speak out against provocative utterances and oppose all acts of electoral violence, whether perpetrated by our supporters and/or opponents.”
A National Peace Committee, headed by former Head of State Gen Abdulsalami Abubakar (rtd), was also constituted to monitor compliance to the Accord.
President Goodluck Jonathan, at the occasion, said the cost of violence is enormous, regretting that the Federal Government recently paid N10 billion in post-election violence compensation.
He said the money could have been channelled into some useful development projects and enjoined all parties, candidates and supporters to shun violence this time.
Similarly, Buhari, in his remarks, condemned violence in all its forms and enjoined the political class to learn from the developed world rather than make the same mistakes.
Arising from the need for non-violence at the national level, peace accords were also brokered and signed by gubernatorial candidates and parties in most states, thereby, domesticating it.
To map out the strategies to sensitise the grassroots on the Accord, the Institute for Peace and Conflict Resolution (IPCR), in conjunction with UN Development Programmes (UNDP) organised Strategic Stakeholders Dialogue across the country.
The dialogue was organised for politicians, traditional and religious leaders, women and youth groups, transport unions, trade associations, media, and civil society organisations.
Director-General of IPCR, Prof Oshita Oshita, at the dialogue for South-West Zone, urged political gladiators to respect the Accord adding, “let the ballot box be the only vehicle for regime change.
“All of us stakeholders can leverage on this Accord to achieve violence-free elections. The issue of peace is one that is pivotal to national development.
Oshita explained that there was no time that is too late for dialogue and peace, saying the dialogue was organised close to the elections so that the strategies against non-violence can still be fresh into the elections.
The South-West stakeholders noted that preventing electoral violence was not only better but cheaper than quelling it and called for the circulation of the Accord to Nigerians.
The stakeholders said: “The cost of peace is much but the cost of violence and disorder is more, and even inestimable; the damage may be irreparable.
“Sustaining the Abuja Peace Accord means refusing to do anything or be party to anything that would mar the elections and throw Nigeria into chaos.
Prof Obododinma Oha, from the Centre for Peace and Conflict Studies, University of Ibadan, said most Nigerians were yet to know the contents of the Accord two months after it was signed.
Oha said it is necessary to circulate the Accord to the people as a strategy for ensuring its sustainability.
“The success of the Accord depends largely on the measure of awareness among stakeholders. There should be translation and transmission of the text of the Accord.
“What many people know is that an Accord has been signed but don’t know more about it.”
In a communique issued after the dialogue in Kaduna, stakeholders from North-West states cautioned politicians against inflammatory and ethno-religious statements.
“Provocative utterances that run afoul of the Peace Accord should be avoided and parties and candidates guilty of such should be sanctioned without further delay.”
At the South-East/South-South dialogue in Uyo, the stakeholders urged INEC and security agencies to exhibit high level of neutrality to disabuse the minds of party candidates and their supporters over perceived bias.
A professor of Political Science, University of Calabar, Okon Eminue, advocated proportional representation, saying whoever wins the upcoming elections should be magnanimous by extending the olive branch to the losers.
“One cause of political crisis is the winner-takes-all syndrome whereby whoever wins an election, no matter how slim the margin is, controls everything in government.
“So one advantage of proportional representation is its promotion of inclusiveness and to douse electoral tension and violence.”
Stakeholders for the North-East/North-Central in Makurdi, said “politicians must ensure that we use ballot and not bullets in the forthcoming elections”, advising them to make the national interest paramount.
A Rwandan, Mr Seth Karamage, a Conflict and Peace Consultant with the Inter-Faith Mediation Centre, Kaduna, advised Nigeria to avoid the Rwandan experience saying, Rwanda is still regretting till today.
Karamage, who urged Nigerian leaders at all levels to give “messages of hope” to their followers, said “the voice of a leader is powerful, can build or destroy”.
“Most followers don’t have minds of their own; they are only waiting for the voice of their leaders to take action.”
The international community says they are heartened that political actors have repeatedly and publicly stressed their commitment to nonviolence.
They, however, said it is imperative that they, and their backers, live up to the Abuja Peace Accord pledge.
Analysts say as Nigeria prepares for the historic polls, actors should sustain the spirit of the Peace Accord, particularly in view of the interests and commendations it has generated from the international community.
Legal luminary, Prof Itse Sagay and Oshita, noted that the peace pact and the peace committee are superior to the law.
Sagay said of the peace pact: “It is morally binding, it is superior to the law because this is a question of not only of conscience but also of integrity and honour.
“For me, it is superior to any law because any act of violence is a crime already”.
Similarly, Oshita the recently constituted National Peace Committee on the 2015 Elections is a moral force to the already existing Nigerian constitution and the Electoral Act.
“The peace committee will act like a moral to the constitution; it will be a moral force to the electoral act and to existing laws against electoral violence.”