OPEC pegs 2021 global oil demand at 96.5 mb/d, 100.6 mb/d in 2022

The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) says World total oil demand in 2021 is pegged at 96.5 million barrel per day (mb/d( and at 100.6 mb/d in 2022, surpassing pre-pandemic levels.

OPEC Secretary General, Mr Mohammad Barkindo, disclosed this on Monday at the 58th virtual Meeting of the Joint Technical Committee − its first meeting of 2022.

The secretary general in an opening remark explained that looking at demand, it foresaw world oil demand increasing by 5.7 mb/d in 2021 and by 4.2 mb/d, both unchanged from December 2021.

He stated that some of the recovery previously expected in the fourth quarter of 2021 shifted to first quarter of 2022, followed by a more steady recovery throughout second half of 2022, though risks were skewed towards the downside.

According to him, our world has learned several hard lessons over the past two years, and many economies are now better equipped today to manage COVID-19 and its side-effects.

He noted that in spite of the steady progress made in terms of the economic recovery, it expected significant levels of uncertainty in the weeks to come, which could slow the growth momentum.

“In addition to closely monitoring the evolving impacts of Omicron variant, other factors to consider will be varying speed of vaccine rollouts worldwide; the uneven pace of economic growth across global regions; and continued supply chain disruptions.

“Additionally, rising inflationary pressures and potential central bank responses remain key factors that require close monitoring,” he said.

In terms of the supply-side, he said that non-OPEC supply in 2021 was expected to grow by 700,000 b/d to average 63.7 mb/d, unchanged from December 2021.

He added that for 2022, non-OPEC supply growth was forecasted at 3.0 mb/d for an average of 66.7 mb/d, also unchanged from last month.