By Abubakar Olanrewaju Sulaiman
Ahead of the election, the commission procured 182,000 unit of SCRs, which were deployed in polling units and voting points across the 36 states and the FCT.
The rise of PVC as well as smart card readers to verify the PVCs and authenticate voters has been widely acknowledged as critical element in the credibility and integrity of the 2015 elections. (INEC Ibid). But as usual, there were pockets of resistance and opposition from stakeholders across different political divides, but the commission relying on the solid support of the presidency, went ahead and experiment the instrument in the elections.
e). Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs):
One of the major breakthroughs by the electoral body was the arrangement made for the IDPs who were seeking refuge in various camps across the north-east of Nigeria. On the part of the commission, conducting election in certain areas affected by the Boko Haram insurgency posed serious dangers not only to the electorate but also to electoral personnel, and other stakeholders.
While the paper would avoid going into the operational difficulties faced by the INEC in accomplishing this task, I need to emphasize here for the sake of posterity and academic exercise, that government policy of making arrangement for IDPs is one fundamental demonstration of Jonathan sincerity in the 2015 elections.
Prior to the general elections, opinions and survey showed that most people from the affected areas of the North East especially Adamawa, Yobe and Borno were already disenchanted with the then administration. This negative perception could be understood from the backdrop of the already made mindset of most northerners that government was
insensitive to their plights and that of the families of the abducted girls.
Apparently, the then ruling party and indeed President Jonathan knew the looming electoral misfortune awaiting them from the northeast.
Upon this perceived and potential danger, President Jonathan inspired, supported and insisted that the IDPs must be provided arrangement and platform to exercise their democratic right and civic obligation. In the three most affected states for instance, there were 4.5 million registered voters, out of which 3.5 million obtained their PVCs for voting exercise. Available result revealed that more than 60% of these voters voted against the ruling party (PDP) and the candidature of Goodluck Jonathan.
This obviously was not a surprise to us as actors in the political system.
In view of the above stated undercurrent, this paper is of the belief that the administration of Jonathan was highly informed of the implication of allowing the North Eastern electorates and indeed the northern Nigeria generally, to carry out their civic responsibility.
The government could hide under the guise of the insurgency to suspend voting in that part of the country or declare a state of emergency. Doing that would have averted the millions of vote loss to his candidature.
Understanding critical decisions
Having examined the importance of INEC activities of 2015 general elections, it is appropriate for us to understand why certain decisions were taken by the then administration. I prefer to term this as critical decisions in peaceful transition.
i). PVC collection:
It is no longer news that INEC faced a lot of obstacles and difficulties in the distribution of permanent voters cards; as vendors had problem in meeting the timelines for delivery. The beauty of the PVC among others, is the authentication of voters and its prevention of riggings and voting by proxies.
An incumbent that aimed at election rigging would never allow such initiative to thrive. I remember that Prof. Jega and his team had to be summoned on several occasions by the Federal Executive Council in ensuring that all Nigerians get their PVCs.
In one of such occasions, Mr. President had to plead with Prof. Jega to do everything possible within his power to see that PVCs were made available; as that remains the only power of the electorate. It was only a man of peace, fairness and transparency that could create such atmosphere for the citizenry. Nigerians and especially the opposition are yet to appreciate this gesture.
ii). Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs): One significant political inroad made by the administration was the creation of IDPs centres, even though, highly politicized as parties and candidates viewed IDP voting as partisan, rather than a right- based issue. While right-based interpretation might have encouraged INEC to explore possible legal and administrative measures that needed to be taken to allow for IDPs voting, a partisan interpretation could impede the process.
In the midst of this rancour and partisanship, President Jonathan stood by the commission that the IDPs must not be deprived their franchise. It was clear to us in government then that opposition parties, especially the APC were disposed favourably to the IDPs voting while some of our party members (PDP) were opposed to it for obvious reasons. Even then, Mr. President aligned with the commission and INEC in giving the IDPs their dues even against his interest.
The less than 3million votes lost to the APC could easily be traced to the IDPs and two other states in the north i.e Kano and Bauchi. Imagine, if the president had disallowed the IDPs voting centres, which ordinarily he had the power to do, what could have been the outcome of the election?
In the spirit of fairness and transparency with the ultimate goal of ensuring stability and peaceful co-existence of the country, the president caved in, and gave necessary incentives towards actualizing that goal
iii. Postponement of 2015 Election: One critical decision of government and indeed INEC was the postponement of the 2015 general elections. This decision did not go without outcry, especially from the opposition political parties who saw the shift as a ploy by the then government to truncate the process.
The decision, according to INEC was due to the threat posed by Boko Haram in the northeast. It was also done to enable the commission continue the distribution of PVCs to citizens to prevent mass disenfranchisement. Not many Nigerians aligned with this position, more so that the initial call for the postponement of the polls was made by the National Security Adviser, Sambo Dasuki. The antagonism against postponement came not only from within but also from outside. The US Secretary of State John Kerry, for instance, warned Nigeria against postponing the poll, as Civil Society Organisations kicked against the move.
It is high time we put issue in proper perspective. What indeed is the rationale for the shift? How justifiable is the rationale? How has it impacted positively on the entire process? How tenable is the argument that the postponement was done to address the raging insurgency activities and allowed for enough distributions of PVCs to potential registered voters.
As at February 7th 2015 when INEC came up with this decision, the insurgency activities in Adamawa, Yobe and Borno States were yet to subside, even though military had started reclaiming some occupied villages.
But the free movement of the electorate, electoral personnel and other critical stakeholders could not be guaranteed. Only an insensitive government would expose her personnel and citizens to danger on the alter of political aspiration. Not only were terrorists still on rampage but the people of this area were not in safe climes. Similarly, nobody could best advise the government and other stakeholders but the security Adviser to the President.
It is therefore against this threat assessment situation that the shift rather than being condemned, should be appreciated by Nigerians and the international community. The subsequent state of harmony and relative sign of respite experienced in the North East during the electioneering period was a further justification of the move. Nigeria recorded no casualty or case of terrorist attack during the period between March and April.
Unfortunately, the peace initiatives of that time was being misconstrued by the APC- led government even after the election had been won. As President Buhari said in a paper presented on his behalf by Mallam Garba Sheu(SSA): “The shift in the poll is one of the major ploys by former president and his agents against me” (SSA: Oct: 2015). This is a case of perception taken too far.
But again, it looks to me as continuation of politics by other means even after the outcome had justified the good intention of the government. Accordingly, at the time the shift was announced by INEC, only 45,829,808 representing 66.58% of the total number of registered voters had gotten their PVCs. The question is what becomes of the remaining 33% of the registered voters. How plausible and realistic is it for these potential voters to obtain their
PVCs within a week to election then? I think it was a case of common-sense that it was obvious that 1/3 of the registered voters would have been denied their right to vote, if election were to hold that February 14.
Even as at March, 14 when the election finally took place only 56,460,968 of 68,833,476 registered voters got their PVCs. That is to say almost 12 million Nigerians out of no fault of theirs could not obtain their PVCs. This to me, is substantial and could make a difference on the outcome of the election.
iv. Clamour for the removal of INEC boss: Few months to the general elections, there were calls from some quarters for the sack of the INEC Chairman- Prof. Jega. There were sufficient grounds for such calls but President Jonathan maintained a position that taking such decision would altercate the process and create an impression which only an insider would understand.
There were indeed cases of compromise on the part of the commission but as the President so wished, let the sleeping dog lies. Invariably, the decision to maintain the status quo in the commission by the administration was one decision that further led credence to the peaceful outcome of the electoral process. We must not forget that the President in his exercise of his constitutional power has the authority to fire the chairman and replace him with any of the National Commissioners to preside over the commission.
Nobody should be on the illusion that the president lacked the gut to exercise such power. After all, General Babangida annulled the June 12 election, thereby depriving Chief M.K.O Abiola his awaiting victory. It is within the context of this remarkable gesture and unparalleled leadership style of the president that I found it disturbing when the APC-led government sometimes grudgingly acknowledged this fact or believed that it was the external pressure that accounted for such political accomplishment.
President Muhammad Buhari for instance alluded our free and credible polls to the pressure by the US and the European countries thus: “The continued pressure on the immediate past
administration by US and some other European countries made the general elections in Nigeria to be free and fair.” He noted that without the external pressure “We would not be where we are today in Nigeria” (Vanguard: July, 2015).
Peaceful Transition: Institutionalization of process of handing over
Our attempt at unravelling the peaceful political transition in the year 2015 would be incomplete without reference to the institutionalisation of transition through the composition of Transition Committee and Handover Committee.
It could be argued by scholars and students of Nigeria political system, that putting a structure in place to oversee the handing over process between two governments and other is not new; but suffice to say that this is the first time we are experiencing a transfer of power from one ruling partly to another in Nigeria’s political history. This in itself is a monumental achievement.
Immediately after the concession of defeat, President Jonathan quickly constituted the transition committee; and implored the APC to come up with their own transition committee. The outgoing government transition committee was led by the then Vice President- Alhaji Namadi Sambo (GCON) and 17 others. On the APC side, we had Alhaji Ahmed Joda as the Chairman of the committee with other members, some of whom are today members of the Federal Executive Council.
The task before the transition committee, according to President Jonathan, was to ensure a smooth transition to a new government. I make bold to say that everything was done by both the President and his Vice to accomplish this goal of peaceful transition within the timelines.
Paradoxically, the APC transition committee never appreciated the effort of our committee. As a critical actor in the transition committee, our duty was contingent upon the activities and pace from various Ministries, Department and Agencies.
On the part of our committee, we had work to do, we needed information and data to collect and aggregate. These data and information must be accurate and precise as they constitute a historical document that would shape the direction of the incoming government. The tenacity of this job was under- appreciated by the APC transition committee as they were eager to come in to government before May 29, 2015 as manifested in their conducts and attitudes.
At every stage of our activities, the committee was greeted with undue criticism and suspicion from the APC transition committee. No doubt, the APC has mastered opposition politics for years, but yet to master an element of rudimentary governance. They always ride on mischief of propaganda as excuses for failure of governance. While that had worked in fooling Nigerian people before the election, it has failed to achieve any meaningful result now after six months of passivity.
In spite of efforts by the transition committee in perfecting the handover process, the APC committee and government criticized us for imperfection, sabotage and unwillingness to hand over government.
Just recently, barely two weeks ago, one of the new ministers, precisely the Hon. Minister of Youth and Sports, Soloman Dalong who was also a member of the APC transition committee claimed that the N20 million we gave their committee was inadequate and was returned.
As far as I am concerned, the said sum which was the same amount our committee utilized and was never returned to the then presidency. Accordingly, for a government and party which preach prudence and cost cutting, the question of inadequacy of expenditure should not have emanated from the Hon. Minister. This act of mischief, blackmail and lies keep rolling out of the APC arsenal as if they were still on the campaign train.
Just yesterday, the SGF office faulted the bogus and satanic allegation by El- Rufai that Jonathan administration spent N64 billion on independence anniversaries. All these have significant implication on our road to peaceful and lasting democratic consolidation.
The second institution put in place by both the then government and the incoming government was the handing-over committee.
The committee was to arrange for smooth hand-over from President Goodluck Jonathan to President Muhammadu Buhari administration. This committee was drawn from the two sides- the outgoing and the incoming. Other sub-committees as hand-over note and technical committees were put in place along these major committees to perfect the hand-over process, so that by 28th May, 2015, the then president was able to handover both the Executive summary and the briefs to the incoming government.
At this juncture, I need to reiterate the plea made by the then Vice President that in case the ruling government has any question arising from the briefs, she should not hesitate to call on any government functionary to shed light on it. This to my mind, is a further extension of an “olive branch” to the APC-led government.
Conclusion
The extent to which a political transition is peaceful and credible depends largely on variance of factors. We have however demonstrated the import of leadership factor as been consequential to the outcome of any electoral process. Is it the leadership that was out to tame the process or the one that respected the sanctity of the electoral body and other agencies? This paper has successfully argued that more than any government in the past, the Jonathan administration has demonstrated penchant for rule of law, freedom and untainted electoral process.
The power of a president is such that if he had wanted to truncate the process or manipulate it, he could have done it, contrary to the opinion of many that perhaps he could not have done it or had no option not to do otherwise.
Even the major beneficiary of the peaceful conduct of transition, the current President Muhammadu Buhari knows that Jonathan did have options if he had wanted.
As he (Buhari) put it: “If you had wanted to make things difficult, you could have made things difficult and that would have been at the expense of lives of poor Nigerians but you chose the part of honour.” (Vanguard; May 28,2015)
Indeed President Buhari knows the amount of power that rests with a sitting President. Not only has he attempted to cling power three times and could not make it for reason such as incumbency factor, but could vividly recollect the episodes of 1964, June 12 annulment of 1993, transmutation agenda of Abacha and the 3rd term bid of President Olusegun Obasanjo.
In all of these cases, there is need for reflection when viewed from the circumstances of our time, i.e insurgency in the North, the threat by some Southern elements for secession and militancy activities in the South-South, juxtapose it with the enormity of authority of the President, one would definitely appreciate that Jonathan handed over to save our lives. Not only did he save the country from another scourge of war but he has shown to the world that such a transition is possible on a continent that is more familiar with “President for life”.
Conclusively therefore, I would want to borrow the words of International Republican Institute President in his remark on the 2015 transition vis a vis the development on the continent: “What Nigerians achieved for their country is an exemplary model for the rest of Africa. And not only the recent Nigeria’s elections but peaceful transfers of powers in places like Zambia and Ghana should inspire others to follow suit.
The temptation to stay in power can be great, but when incumbent Presidents try to change the rules of the game in their favour by changing term limits or restricting political space, the consequences can be deadly. The world saw that last year in Burkina Faso, this January in democratic Republic of Congo and now in Burundi, at a time when such groups as Boko Haram, Al-Qaeda and Al-Shabbab are menacing the African landscape .
This new generation has to better understand and experience the dividends of democracy or we face the terrible prospect of more violent and deadly protests or other more nefarious groups capturing their allegiance. Now is the time to demonstrate to the next generation of Africans why a perpetual political transition could be like in their own country.
Finally, this paper would wish to advise that transition is not complete until the purpose which we had such transition is actualized.
One of these is for the continuous existence of our nation as one monolithic entity, address all major problems bedevilling the country, and consolidating the gains of political stability as demonstrated by President Goodluck Jonathan. The current President must not just be fair and just, but also be seen to be so doing. Every attempt must be done to convince Nigerians that the electoral body would not be tamed and influenced and that government officials would cultivate the culture of impartiality in their interface with various independent stakeholders. This, one believes, is the surest way to stability and development.
Dr. Sulaiman, the immediate past Minister/Deputy Chairman, National Planning presented this paper at the 2015 edition of Zik Annual Lecture/Award Night recently in Abuja.
