In January 2025, the U.S. administration made the controversial decision to suspend nearly all new foreign aid funding, with exceptions for key allies like Israel and Egypt.
While critical sectors such as health and education are excluded, this policy change casts a long shadow over countries like Nigeria, where USAID has played a significant role in transforming the education sector.
As a policy extrapreneur and futurist, I critically examine the implications of this decision on Nigeria’s education sector by reviewing USAID’s contributions from 2010 to date.
This analysis highlights the key achievements facilitated by USAID’s funding, the challenges posed by its withdrawal, and the strategic measures needed to mitigate its effects.
Over the past decade, USAID has supported Nigeria’s education initiatives with millions of dollars, focusing on teacher training, literacy programs, and girls’ education, especially in conflict-prone regions.
As Nigeria faces the potential loss of this vital educational funding, it is crucial to assess the lasting impact of these contributions and the challenges posed by their withdrawal.
Since 2010, USAID has invested an estimated $700 million to $900 million in Nigeria’s education sector.
These investments have been focused on improving literacy, enhancing teacher training, and expanding access to education for marginalized groups, particularly girls. Programs like the Northern Education Initiative Plus (NEI+) have significantly improved literacy rates, benefiting over 1.5 million children in conflict-affected areas.
The Early Grade Reading Programs have also raised literacy rates by 15% in just two years. The Safe Schools Initiative, which enrolled over 200,000 girls in conflict areas, alongside scholarships and mentorship programs, has been instrumental in reducing dropout rates and promoting gender equality in education.
USAID’s funding has also supported the reconstruction of over 100 classrooms in regions affected by insurgency, as well as providing educational opportunities for more than 500,000 displaced children through its Education-in-Emergencies program.
These interventions have brought about significant progress, particularly in conflict-affected and underserved regions. However, with USAID’s funding set to cease, the continuation of these programs is uncertain, and the educational gains achieved could be reversed.
The immediate consequences of this withdrawal include a critical funding shortfall for essential programs such as NEI+ and literacy initiatives, which may affect over 1.5 million students.
Programs providing safe learning spaces for girls are at risk of ceasing, leading to higher dropout rates, particularly in rural and conflict-affected areas. Public schools, already burdened by insufficient funding, may find it even more challenging to fill the gap left by the withdrawal.
Overcrowded classrooms, outdated materials, and a lack of teacher training could become more widespread, further hindering educational quality. Furthermore, the reconstruction of classrooms in insurgency-affected states may come to a halt, leaving thousands of children without proper learning environments.
To mitigate these challenges, Nigeria must take proactive steps to safeguard its educational progress.
First, the Nigerian government must increase its domestic education spending, aiming to allocate at least 4-6% of GDP to education, in line with global recommendations.
This would provide sufficient resources for teacher training, learning materials, and infrastructure. Strengthening public-private partnerships is also critical.
Collaboration with corporate foundations, NGOs, and international agencies can help bridge the funding gap, while corporate social responsibility initiatives should be leveraged to support education on a larger scale.
Also, expanding digital learning initiatives can ensure continuity of education for displaced and underserved communities, with low-cost technology solutions providing access to learning in remote areas.
Nigeria should also diversify its funding sources by seeking financial support from international organizations such as the World Bank, UNICEF, and the African Development Bank. Engaging emerging economies like China and India for education-focused partnerships is another avenue to explore.
Furthermore, establishing a National Education Trust Fund, supported by private donors, philanthropists, and Nigerian enterprises, could provide a long-term solution for financing critical educational programs. State governments could also consider implementing education levies on industries to fund infrastructure projects in schools.
The potential impact of USAID’s withdrawal from Nigeria’s education sector cannot be overstated. Years of progress in literacy, teacher training, and girls’ education are at risk of being undone.
However, through strategic measures like increasing domestic funding, fostering partnerships, and diversifying international support, Nigeria can mitigate these challenges and continue its progress toward a more resilient and inclusive education system.
The urgency of action is clear—without swift interventions, millions of children could face educational disruptions, undermining national development goals and economic stability.
The future of Nigeria’s education system depends on the immediate and sustained efforts of all stakeholders.
Dr. Murtala Adogi Mohammed is a policy extrapreneur and futurist, and the founder and CEO of System Strategy & Policy Lab. He can be reached at [email protected].
