With the ceaseless killing of citizens, police personnel and burning of government property in the South-east states, will the region’s demand to produce Nigeria’s president in 2023 see the light of the day? ABDULRAHMAN ZAKARIYAU in this report examines the pros and cons of the development.
Call to mind
Nigeria is currently facing a plethora of problems in almost all nooks and crannies – terrorism in the North-east; banditry, kidnapping in the North-west; farmers, herders’ conflicts in the Middle Belt; secession agitations and others in the entire South.
Like many states across the country, the five in the South-east have recorded their fair shares of insecurity, ranging from cult clashes, kidnappings, murders, daylight robberies among others.
Interestingly, the world’s attention has been on the South-east because of the ceaseless attacks and killings that have occurred in the last three months. It all started on January 25, 2021, when traders in a market in Orlu in Imo state were allegedly attacked by the proscribed Independent People of Biafra (IPOB) Eastern Security Network (ESN). Many were killed and the market was later set ablaze. Since this incident, the state has witnessed many forms of attack, killings and security breaches despite the heavy presence of the country’s security forces. From Imo, Enugu and Ebonyi states were attacked by gunmen with many residents allegedly murdered and houses set ablaze.
Aside from these states, Ebonyi state has in a way become a battle field as many residents are reportedly being killed almost on a daily basis since March 29, when a Methodist priest and 17 other indigenes of Egedegede, Obegu and Amuzu communities in Ishielu LGA of the state were gruesomely murdered.
In Anambra state, as they continue to prepare for the governorship election that is scheduled to hold by in November, this year, it has also recorded some pockets of security breaches where security personnel and residents were reportedly killed.
The issues
Notably, like most parts of the country, the entire South-east has become a hot zone. But this has attracted more concern with analysts blaming the prescribed IPOB ESN because the attacks are usually coordinated with security personnel and government facilities their prime targets. While a few analysts believe that the attacks in the region are a deliberate attempt by a few elements in the zone to blackmail the federal government on the plans of the secessionists, many are also of the view that in a way the continued killings and attacks would grossly affect the chances of an Igbo man emerging as president in 2023.
Experts’ views, warnings
Security experts have warned that the spate of attacks in the region could be a dangerous signal that insurgency is beginning to brew in that part of the country.
Commenting on the security situation, a former director of the Department of State Security (DSS), Mike Ejiofor, noted that more attacks were imminent as the situation seemed far from abating.
Ejiofor, a lawyer, who served as the Service’s director in some states of the South- south, South-west and North-west, said, “This is an attribute of insurgency where they begin to attack government institutions. The aim is to weaken the military and make people afraid and lose confidence in the government. That is exactly what they are doing. Although they have been denying it, I believe the security agencies will handle the situation.”
In his view, a security risk management expert and managing director, Beacon Consulting Ltd., Dr. Kabir Adamu, said the continuous attacks in the region “is to achieve a political objective.”
In a phone chat with this reporter, Dr. Adamu said the security situation in the South-east “is worrisome in the sense that we are seeing what appears to me like a coordinated attack on the security infrastructure where till date I think at the last count 47 police formation have been targeted.”
“I think out of that at least 12 policemen have been killed and on most of the attacks vehicles have been stolen, and armoury are most times looted. So, clearly it is a coordinated attack on security infrastructure aimed at weakening the ability of the state to exact instruments or force.
“Now, if we look at the studies on anarchy and instances that lead to insurrection, this is how they usually plan an attack on state instruments and then they now launch whatever objective or plan they have,” he said.
On whether or not the attacks are politically motivated, he said, “Yes, we can talk about the likelihood that it’s politically motivated. Now, given the coordinated nature of the attacks, there are only one people that have that capacity and they are the indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB). We should also remember that not too long ago they unveiled the eastern security network which is the vigilance wing. If they are the ones behind the attacks, are they doing it or they choose it for a political objective and very likely it is to achieve a political objective. Now, if they choose it for a political objective, it’s possible that some politicians are enabling the attacks in order to use it as a bargaining chip or for position ahead of the 2023 elections or even for governorship election. Let’s remember that in a place like Imo state, we all know how the current governor became the governor. So, there are definitely political reasons and whatever force that is behind the attacks must likely have political undertones.”
He added: “It must be the combination of the two; well the politics is meant to provide a sense of belonging to everyone. Where there’s a perception of marginalisation there’s no amount of law enforcement that will take care of that. The first thing to do is to provide a platform for inclusion of equity, of justice and only politicians can do that. So that is absolutely impossible. Then the engagement, the precautions and changes that will allow that perception of marginalisation to reduce and then law enforcement can now take charge. It’s obvious that there are supporters of the insurrection and insurgency within the people of the South-east, because of the perception of marginalisation. And one of the steps is to remove that reason these people use to get people involved in the attacks.
On the consequences of the attacks on the zone’s chances, he said, “It’s a two- way thing; yes, there will be a condemnation, but then think about it where elections are not held in that zone; what impact will it have on the country as a whole? You can claim popularity when you’re unable to win elections in a significant zone. And how are we sure that this won’t spread into neighbouring regions. I think at the stage we should not exclude the possibility of that happening and so it is absolutely important that steps are taken to address these issues.”
Ohanaeze Nd’Igbo’s take
The president-general of Ohanaeze Nd’Igbo, George Obiozor, in his opinion said an Igbo presidency is the key agenda of the group as 2023 draws closer, adding that not all members of the Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB) are seeking to secede from Nigeria.
Obiozor stated this while speaking during an interview on a national television, disclosing that the group was ready to negotiate with other regions to ensure that the agenda “comes to fruition.”
“We support Igbo president with open arms. It is the most important thing that will happen to the Igbo. Finally, it is our turn. And we are going to work on it so hard. We will talk to other parts of Nigeria to give us a chance. This is because it is right, reasonable, deserving and timely. It is wonderful to consider it done by this time. Igbo presidency is our agenda,” he said. According to him, some members of the IPOB just want to bring attention to the marginalisation and deprivation that the Igbo are suffering.
“Who told you all the people in IPOB want secession? They want justice. Just like the rest of the Igbo. They want the country’s attention to the relative deprivation that Igbo are facing; to the glass ceilings that prevent the Igbo from certain goals within their own country. That’s what IPOB and Biafra people are talking about.”
Arewa youth’s position
Speaking on the development, the president of Arewa Youth Consultative Forum (AYCF), Alhaji Yerima Shettima, said the North “cannot be intimidated by skirmishes, blackmails and violence to support the South-east for the 2023 presidential election.”
Speaking with Blueprint Weekend, Shettima said: “For me, one can’t rule out politics from the insecurity in the South-east, because some people somewhere feel that by intimidation they can find their way in political power or occupy political positions. As for us, we are monitoring with keen interest and we strongly believe that intimidation and other forms of harassment can not in any way be of good to anybody. This is because they feel they want to occupy any political space or they want to take over the mantle of leadership. I don’t think this step is a wise one because those things are old-fashion; it no longer works.
“A lot of us are concerned and worried because we feel the South-east is part of Nigeria and that a few individuals can not be allowed to hold the entire country to ransom. So, we are bothered and concerned, but the subject of the matter is that those things are old-fashioned and the North can not be intimidated by the skirmishes, blackmails, violence.”
On whether or not the North would support a South-east candidate for 2023, he said: “Why will we support any candidate in the South-east when we are looking at all these embarrassments going on in the country and their kinsmen are watching. And they think they can achieve their goal by harassing or intimidating or holding the country to ransom. It’s not really doing any good for them. Ordinarily, why won’t somebody without issues come on board, but with all these going on with some of their lousy children outside the country making noises everywhere, it is a clear indication that they are not prepared. And like I said earlier we can’t be intimidated or harassed by anybody to give power to anybody. Democracy is about people who must come out and do it through ballot papers, not bombs and harassment and intimidation.”
An analyst’s perspective
Meanwhile, a political analyst and public affairs commentator, Jide Ojo, has called on all political stakeholders to come up with what he termed “political engineering” to integrate the South-east in the 2023 presidential election.
Ojo, speaking with this reporter, said: “What is the equity, fairness and justice that the South-east want? It’s that they should be considered to be part of Nigeria and be given their due regard. What happened in 1998 – 1999, when the three political parties decided to feature only Yoruba presidential candidates? The Igbo do not have the number, they have five states and the population is also not among the top.
“There are two issues; it’s either you threat us fairly in Nigeria or you allow us to go. So, it’s not about friendship, it’s about politics. And in politics, there’s no permanent friend or permanent foe, only permanent interest. And the permanent interest of the Igbo now is to mount pressure to ensure that something will give, otherwise you may have 2023 election and a Yoruba man will assume presidency or an Ijaw, then you will continue to have a situation where an Igbo will not be allowed to be a service chief, will not be allowed to be an IGP, will not even have the infrastructure. And these are people that contribute immensely to the economic survival of the country.
“For the Igbo, it’s not about whether or not this kind of thing will get them more friendships or more enemies; it’s about whether or not it will strike at the conscience of the political leaders to treat them fairly and equitably. And, for me, one way you can address that is by ensuring that you also provide them the opportunity to lead the country.
So, if you don’t do that there will be no end to this agitation. This is because this is exactly what the Niger Delta militants did in the 90s which lead to the militancy in the South-south, and eventually it paid off. We saw a situation where Obasanjo placated the South-east in 2007 by choosing somebody from the Ijaw extraction to be the vice-president, and he became an acting president, and later the president. But you cannot say the same of the Igbo, the last time the Igbo tested anything in the Presidency was 1979 to 1983. If you do the mathematics, say for those four years Dr. Alex Ekwueme was made the vice-president, when was that? We are talking of over 40 years ago. So, for me it’s better to have equity fairness and justice.”