Global rice demand will hit 555m tons by 2035- IRR’

The International Rice Research Institute (IRRI) has predicted that global rice demand would likely increase from 439 million tons in 2010 to 555 million tons in 2035.
DAVID AGBA reports

No doubt, in Africa, where the population growth rate is high, there is an exponentially increasing demand for rice.
Th ere is hardly any household where rice is not a staple food, even customers at restaurants most times demand for a plate of either white rice, jollof rice or fried rice.
To balance the situation, Dr.
Abdelgagi Ismail who leads the Genetics and Biotechnology Division at IRRI, speaking recently, said: “We are now integrating tolerances of abiotic factors into modern varieties and bringing them to the areas that missed the fi rst green revolution.
Th is is what we are referring to as the second green revolution.
” Unlike the first Green Revolution, which used a single miracle variety to produce an exorbitant amount of rice, the second Green Revolution involves tailoring seeds to thrive in particular environments (drought, submergence, salinity, iron toxicity, heat and cold), and the Institute research has made it clear that it is possible to double the productivity in these areas, and they hope to increase its nutritional value too.
“I am optimistic that with suffi cient investment in research, science will help us solve all hurdles and sustain our food supply, and agriculture is the only source of food.
” Ismail said, adding, Th e concept of the second Green Revolution is a good example, besides investing more into areas and resources that are not yet suffi ciently exploited.
” Despite this, it is unclear whether IRRI’s success with IR8 has accomplished all its goals.
While the first Green Revolution targeted areas where there were good water control and soil conditions, farmers in less favourable areas still use the traditional rice varieties that can tolerate more stressful conditions.
According to the Food and Agricultural Organization, FAO, the increasing scarcity of land and water is a growing threat to food security and as farmers age, there is a heightened level of concern for who will take up their work when they pass.
Report says in Japan, the age of the average farmer is 70, and in the Philippines and Indonesia, it’s 57 and 50 respectively.
While the global per capita rice consumption has stagnated, population is still rising drastically.
Moreover, the issue of climate change has already negatively impacted rice production.
“Rice yields decrease with climate warming, and the increase in night temperature causes high sterility and reduced grain fi lling, causing poor quality.
” According to Ismail, in coastal areas, we are seeing progressive rises in sea level and inland intrusion by a few kilometers every year, especially in the coastal deltas of Vietnam, Bangladesh, and Myanmar.
Th ese deltas are the major rice production areas in these countries.
” If the trends remain the same, yields are set to decline, and in Asia, a continent where 90 per cent of rice is consumed, this could have a disastrous effect on the 560 million hungry people in the region who rely on rice to sustain their diet.
IRRI’s research in the 1960s was invaluable in stopping global famine, and in the 21st century they may have to dramatically alter rice agriculture again.
Th is time, they’ll need to target the farmers that were left behind the fi rst time around.
“We are now integrating tolerances of abiotic factors into modern varieties and bringing them to the areas that missed the fi rst green revolution.
” Ismail says, “Th is is what we are referring to as the second green revolution.
” As land becomes scarce and farmers grow older in Asia, it is Africa who can make up the diff erence.
“Africa is the potential future world food basket,” he believes.
Unlike the first Green Revolution, which used a single miracle variety to produce an exorbitant amount of rice, the second Green Revolution involves tailoring seeds to thrive in particular environments (drought, submergence, salinity, iron toxicity, heat and cold).
IRRI’s research has made it clear that it is possible to double the productivity in these areas, and they hope to increase its nutritional value too.
“I am optimistic that with suffi cient investment in research, science will help us solve all hurdles and sustain our food supply, and agriculture is the only source of food.
” Ismail says, “Th e concept of the second Green Revolution is a good example, besides investing more into areas and resources that are not yet suffi ciently exploited.
” As a result of this, the next Green Revolution is, in essence, an undertaking aimed towards reducing hunger and poverty for the world’s poorest.
It is the impoverished, who are the most susceptible to global warming, that stand to benefi t the most from the development of rice science.
Farmers need more efficient production practices dominated by mechanization and efficient varieties that require fewer resources to produce higher yields.
The next Green Revolution does not have a single variety that has the same substantial eff ect that IR8 did.
Instead, it will complete the fi rst one by improving various types of rice to work in vastly unalike terrains, which will help farmers who need it most.

Leave a Reply