Prof. Rufa’i Ahmed Alkali is a political scientist, former presidential adviser, and now a chieftain of All Progressives Congress (APC). In this interview with EMEKA NZE, Alkali examines the economic situation in the country and advises on the way to go.
How would you look at the present economic situation of the country?
In the first place, the Nigerian Economy has been going into deep and deeper crisis. This fact is known to everyone both within and outside Nigeria and does not require long explanation. Nonetheless, it is important to mention, even in brief, the background to some of these problems. It is well known fact that until Nigeria discovered petroleum oil, agriculture was the mainstay of the Nigerian economy characterised by huge production of food and export crops. Nigeria was a leading producer and exporter of groundnuts, cocoa, palm kennels, hides and skins. The discovery of petroleum oil changed all these. Nigeria’s oil export earnings grew steadily and over the years agriculture began to decline. Even though the contribution of agriculture to GDP in Nigeria remains high, exports of traditional agricultural products began to decline, giving way to petroleum exports.
But instead of Nigeria to use oil to get out of oil, the country went deeper and deeper into the dependence on oil exports earnings whose price was and still is determined by external forces of demand and supply. With huge export earnings accompanied with the decline of agriculture and in the absence of a coherent industrialisation policy, Nigeria became a massive importer of goods and services including food. Indeed Nigeria became a dumping ground of all kinds of foreign manufactured products.
What were the implications of this to the country?
With Nigeria’s growing population and the instability of the oil market, Nigeria began to borrow heavily from the international financial institutions. This is precisely how the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) gradually but systematically penetrated into the Nigerian economy and society. Today, Nigeria is debtor nation and there is no aspect of Nigeria where these two Bretton Woods institutions are not involved. And as in all Africa, Asia and Latin America where the World Bank and the IMF are involved, there are deep and pervasive implications for the governments and the peoples.
Without consistent, coherent and coordinated education system, the number of out of school children, especially, in Northern Nigeria, kept on rising yearly while the Almajiri system became a breeding ground for criminal activities. Privatisation of public enterprises and the embargo on recruitments by the federal and state ministries, directorates and agencies also contributed to rising unemployment in the country. The unintended consequence of all these is rising crimes and criminality.
Could this be the reason of the all sorts of insurgency within the country?
It is a well known fact that many groups have taken up arms against the Nigerian state. Boko Haram, once seen and treated as a fringe religious sect grew and expanded rapidly in the North Eastern sub region declaring total war on the people. In the last ten to fifteen years, the insurgents unleashed mayhem within and outside the cities, villages and communities in the region causing unprecedented deaths and destructions. Unfortunately, despite spirited government efforts over the years and in spite of the huge collateral damage to the Nigerian economy and society, still remnants of the group have been waging sporadic attacks on innocent civilians in the region.
Similarly, the menace of banditry and kidnapping especially in the North Western sub region which also started in the form of cattle rustling grew up very fast constituting a huge security challenge to Nigeria. Today, the issue of banditry and kidnapping has become a franchise with some warlords openly threatening to intensify the killings of innocent citizens and destructions of public property. Similarly, frequent tension, conflicts and even confrontation leading to deaths and destruction over access to land and water between farmers and cattle rearers in the midlands have also been of great concern to every Nigerian and to the Nigerian Government. This too has led to many deaths and destructions and the disruptions of public life.
Furthermore, in the Southeast, the emergence and growth of the outlawed Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB) and the threat of secession has destabilised a region known for vast trade and commerce. It is now common for IPOB to declare certain days of the week as closed for public and private commercial activities and anyone who violated the ‘Order’ is dealt with mercilessly by the group. All these and many similar groups are challenging the very existence of Nigeria as an entity, a further evidence on the loss of confidence in the system.
What do you think should be done to arrest the situation you just described?
Today, everywhere you go around the country, the cry of food, food and food rants the air with many more people going to bed (if they have any bed at all) and waking up in the morning with empty stomachs, with no hope of getting food anytime soon. In communities devastated by insecurity and in families with many small children whose parents have been killed, the situation is even more dire and distressing. It is obvious, a hungry man is an angry man. One consequence of all these is loss of hope in the land. It is an incontrovertible fact that many Nigerians have lost hope in the country, many others have lost hope on democracy and even many more Nigerians have lost hope in themselves.
Late last year, in November 2023, a video clip trended on-line showing a young Nigerian man from Edo state called Alvin Ilenre, a graduate of Ajayi Crowther University, Oyo, Oyo State, publicly setting fire on his primary school, diploma, Bachelors Degree and NYSC certificates saying that since his graduation for nearly thirteen years, the certificates did not serve him any purpose. While many social media followers were shocked and surprised that anyone could go this far, the lesson from this was that there was no easier and harsher way of dismissing the education system in the country. It is a fact of life today that the biting economic conditions have deepened hunger, poverty, unemployment and general bitterness and resentments in the country. This has also raised anger and bitterness in the land. After pursuing the neo-liberal doctrine for over forty years, Nigeria has been caught up in a web.
What should be done, l want to ask again…
In the first place, virtually every Nigerian, including friends of Nigeria are agreed that our country is not moving fast enough nor is it moving in the right direction of fulfilling its manifest destiny as the leading and leader on the African continent. Some Nigerians even believe, rightly or wrongly, that we as a nation are either stuck in one place or even moving backwards compared to some of the leading nations in the world.
Secondly, most Nigerians believe, here rightly too, that the country has vast human and natural resources, that if these resources were properly harnessed, these would propel us to accelerated economic development, social advancement and political stability and so far this has not happened. Thirdly, most Nigerians believe, unless something is done urgently, Nigeria’s economic and socio-political drift will be exacerbated with far reaching consequences not only for Nigeria as a country but for the African continent as a whole. Already the deepening economic crisis in the country has impacted virtually in every sector of the national economy, especially, in the areas of agriculture, the manufacturing sector and commerce. As we noted earlier, these have been exacerbated by general insecurity in the country.
In all this, where do you situate corruption?
On the issue of corruption, there has been spirited debate in Nigeria on its causes, dimensions and implications for the national economy and society. Some of the manifestations of this corruption include lack of priorities in governance, misuse and abuse of public trust and open theft. Many Nigerians believe that this corruption has been facilitated because of the gradual but systematic concentration of power and resources into fewer and fewer hands while abject poverty is on the increase. A new word, ‘state capture’ is beginning to find its way into the lexicon of political discourse.
Undoubtedly, the issue of corruption has been as old as the history of Nigeria. In fact, way back in 1984, a spirited debate took place among leading scholars, Yusuf Bala Usman of the Department of History and Yusuf Bangura of the Department of Political Science both at the Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences, Ahmadu Bello University, Zaria on the causes of Nigerian economic crisis. During the debate, while the issue of corruption was raised as one of the causes of the economic crisis in Nigeria, it was also argued that corruption itself was a feature and manifestation of a deeper problem, inevitable in all capitalist systems.
Don’t you think lack of true federalism is also factor holding down the progress of the country?
Yes, beside the issue of corruption, there are many Nigerians who also contend that the structure of the Nigerian federation is the major factor and an impediment to economic growth, political inclusivity and inclusiveness and social harmony. Here, it is felt that the distributive process of national resources between the federal government, the states and local governments has greatly impaired national development. This has led to frequent calls for restructuring of the country in order to address the issues of fiscal imbalances and other sundry matters. Here, there are many Nigerians, including highly respected citizens who believe that the whole problem in Nigeria is either what they term as faulty fiscal federalism, or that the Federal structure in Nigeria itself, is the foundation of the problem. According to this view, there is an urgent need to restructure the Nigerian Federation.
There are still others who are also calling for jettisoning of the Presidential system of Government, which they say is too expensive and a return to the Parliamentary system of Government, as was practiced under the First Republic 1960 to 1966.
Recently in late February 2024, the, National Assembly in Nigeria commenced processes for the amendments of the Nigerian Constitution to revert the country to Parliamentary System of Government and the introduction of State police. Both of these are very contentious and are likely to raise more tensions in the days ahead.
What about the issue of leadership and the way we select our leaders?
That has been attracting attention; the challenges of leadership in Nigeria. I have argued elsewhere that there is no subject that has continued to elicit so much passion and acrimonious debate than the problem of leadership in Nigeria. Here is what I stated: In the past three decades, conscious efforts have been made in search of solutions. As part of this, the Arewa House, Center for Historical Research and Documentation in Kaduna, an arm of Ahmadu Bello University, Zaria has hosted a number of Seminars, Workshops and Lecture series addressing this issue.
I am convinced, history has shown that actually it is good and great leaders – men and women of courage, men and women of character and men and women of foresight and revolutionary ideas, who in the first place, brought about fundamental changes to their countries leading up to the building of strong Institutions.
I asked of election and the issue of democracy…
Yes another issue gaining traction in recent times is on the issue of democracy. Many Nigerians placed a lot of hope on democracy praying that the institutions and structures of democracy will give them protection and dividends. Many more Nigerians thought that democracy and democratic governance would offer the appropriate window and platform through which all contentious issues facing Nigeria, especially issues of good governance, accountability, equity, social justice and inclusivity could be addressed and resolved. Unfortunately, so far, this appears not to be case.
As a result of this, nearly twenty four years since the return to liberal democracy, Nigerians are raising questions and even beginning to loose hope in virtually every facet of national life. Instead of democracy to offer hope to the people, this has not been so. Democracy as a system of government which hitherto was embraced with enthusiasm and with huge public support appears to lose its allure. Poor political representations, lack of empathy, blatant misuse of public resources and vulgar and ostentatious living in the midst of poverty and hunger has created a rejectionist tendency of the very essence of democracy among the populace.
But some Nigerians are thinking that the hardship is more now…
It is easy to heap the blame on President Bola Ahmed Tinubu who took over power last year, in May 2023. But the issue is much more complex than that. As can be noted, the deterioration and the worsening of conditions for investments and businesses in Nigeria has been going on for a very long time in the country, during the same period the IMF and the World Bank were digging their feet deeper and deeper into the Nigerian economy. In my view, what is before us is the cumulative effects of over four decades of the involvement and intervention of the Bretton Wood Institutions in the Nigerian economy and society based on the neo-liberal ideology which is insensitive to the feelings and yearnings of Nigerians.
The good news is that even President Bola Ahmed Tinubu is keenly aware of the dangers of the neo-liberal ideology.try
I wish to also state that, there is nothing that is being said about President Bola Ahmed Tinubu today that has not been said, even more, about past Nigerian Leaders including Muhammadu Buhari, Dr Goodluck Ebele Jonathan, Chief Olusegun Obasanjo, General Sani Abacha, General Ibrahim Babangida and even Alhaji Shehu Usman Aliyu Shagari. The point is that, irrespective of who is in charge in the Government of Nigeria, as long as the country is pursuing neo-liberal economic policies under the influence and direction of the IMF and World Bank, the problem will still persist.
So, what should the President do differently?
What President Tinubu should do urgently is to come up with a medium term strategy of economic revival. President Tinubu should quickly adopt the Barrack Obama rule book that led to bringing America out of the woods within a short period of time. This is essential in order to urgently restore hope in the country and in the Nigerian democracy. I trust this is the time the Federal Government under President Bola Ahmed Tinubu will take fresh and far reaching decisions to bring Nigeria out of the woods.
This is the time for the Federal Government to step back, reassess the impact of the removal of the fuel subsidy and the wholesale devaluation of the Naira and come up with a Stimulus Programme For Economic Revival (SPER) to achieve the Renew Hope Agenda of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu. This will serve as a Social Safety Net which implies fiscal inclusion of all Nigerians which would prevent further collapse of businesses and descent into more unemployment, hunger and poverty. It can be done, it should be done.
