The eventual emergence of Dr. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala as the Director General of the World Trade Organization (WTO) as well as the ratification of the AfCFTA agreement, expected to take off in January 2021, are two key events that can potentially shape the fortunes of the international trade dynamics in Nigeria in 2021.
In a recent report by SB Morgen captioned “The Year Ahead, Light at the End of the Tunnel, What to Expect” in 2021, Okonjo-Iweala’s candidacy for WTO DG has received broad support across Africa, the EU, Latin America and Japan, but has faced pushback from the United States government.
However, with a transition to the Biden-led US administration in the coming year, consensus will likely be reached for Okonjo Iweala’s appointment, Nigeria’s nominee, landing the position would give the country’s international reputation a much-needed boost.
The ratification of the AfCFTA agreement would signal a more positive stance towards free trade, though this appears to be an overly optimistic view.
Currently, the Nigeria Customs Service currently maintains a 45-item list of banned imports, despite the country’s membership of the WTO and the implementation of the ECOWAS Common External Tariff, reopening the land borders would at least demonstrate a credible commitment to the letter and spirit of the free trade agreement.
The desperation to drive investment into the country and unlock growth in the oil sector will make it highly imperative to pass the Petroleum Industry Bill (PIB) most likely in the second half of 2021. There have not been any strong oppositions to the draft from the industry, trade unions or any organized groups and interestingly, the National Assembly (especially, the senate) is very much aligned and allied with the Executive – indicating a good signal and omen in passing the bill, thus breaking a 13-year deadlock.