El-Rufai’s defection and matters arising 

In a move that has sent shockwaves through Nigeria’s political landscape, former governor of Kaduna state Nasir El-Rufai has officially parted ways with the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) and pitched his tent with the Social Democratic Party (SDP).

While party defections are not uncommon in Nigeria’s politics, El-Rufai’s exit from the ruling party carries deep political undercurrents that could reshape the dynamics ahead of the 2027 elections.

For a man instrumental in the formation of the APC and a staunch ally of former President Muhammadu Buhari, El-Rufai’s departure raises critical questions. Is this a strategic move to remain politically relevant? A protest against President Bola Tinubu’s leadership? Or does it signal cracks within the APC?

El-Rufai’s political journey within the APC has been marked by loyalty, controversy, and influence. As a key figure in the party’s 2015 victory over the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), he was regarded as one of the strongest voices in Buhari’s inner circle.

His tenure as Kaduna governor further solidified his image as a reformist, albeit one who often courted controversy. From restructuring Kaduna’s civil service to his hardline stance on security issues, El-Rufai commanded attention. Under Buhari, he wielded significant influence, not just within Kaduna state but also on the national stage.

Many expected him to secure a prominent role in the Tinubu government. However, cracks began to show when he was dropped from the ministerial list, allegedly over security concerns flagged by the National Security Adviser.

El-Rufai’s exit from the APC is not a spur-of-the-moment decision; it is the culmination of growing frustration. His rejection as a minister was seen by many as a deliberate sidelining, marking the beginning of his alienation from the ruling party’s core decision-making organ. 

Reports suggest he became increasingly disillusioned with Tinubu’s governance style, particularly in handling economic and security challenges. The former governor is known for his bluntness, and sources indicate that his inability to influence policies within the APC played a significant role in his decision.

While his supporters argue that his move to the SDP is based on principle, critics suggest it is driven by personal ambition-positioning himself for a possible political comeback in 2027.

El-Rufai’s choice of the SDP, rather than the PDP or a new political movement, is intriguing. The SDP remains a relatively small force compared to the APC and PDP, raising questions about whether he truly believes in the party’s ideology or sees it as a convenient platform to negotiate his future.

Some analysts believe El-Rufai is playing the long game – joining a smaller party now to avoid direct confrontations with APC heavyweights while testing the waters for potential alliances with other opposition figures ahead of 2027. Others argue that he has limited options, given his strained relationship with the Tinubu camp and his unlikelihood of returning to the PDP, a party he once fiercely opposed.

Expectedly, the APC has brushed off El-Rufai’s departure, with the presidency dismissing it as driven by “inordinate ambition.” Kaduna’s APC leadership has also claimed they are not bothered, arguing that his influence has waned significantly since leaving office. 

However, political observers note that El-Rufai’s defection could have ripple effects. While he may not command a nationwide political structure, his ability to shape narratives, especially in northern politics, should not be underestimated. Some opposition figures, including former Senator Shehu Sani, have downplayed his move, arguing that El-Rufai’s political relevance has diminished.

El-Rufai’s defection is not just about one man leaving a party – it is a reflection of deeper tensions within the APC. Since taking power in 2023, Tinubu has had to balance competing interests within the ruling party, from former Buhari loyalists to his own political allies.

For El-Rufai, the road ahead is uncertain. Aligning with the SDP may be a strategic step, but it remains to be seen whether it will translate into real political leverage. Is this the beginning of a broader coalition to challenge APC dominance, or will it end up as another failed defection story in Nigeria’s political history?

One thing is clear – El-Rufai’s move has reignited conversations about Nigeria’s shifting political landscape. Whether it leads to a major realignment or fizzles out as an individual protest remains to be seen.

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