By Aliyu Musa
As Nigeria, bolstered by the international community, declares total war on Boko Haram, last Sunday I made an appearance on Inside Story, an Al Jazeera English discussion panel. And the topic was ‘Boko Haram: Dialogue or Defeat’. Let me point out here that although a co-discussant misunderstood and almost presented me as unpatriotic for suggesting that Nigeria was ill-prepared for total war with the violent sect, I am no sympathiser of terrorists, much less the Boko Haram. As a Muslim from Nigeria who’s directly and indirectly a victim of their terror (I lost a brother in one of their killing sprees), I will be more than happy to see them brought to justice, even though my idea of justice is not crushing the rebellion at all cost.
Shortly after the programme was shown I received a few phone calls, text and in box messages, supporting, partly supporting or out rightly opposing my suggestions. I have taken time to explain to some of them what I meant especially by suggesting a consideration of all options on the table, against the ‘popular’ view of not negotiating with terrorists.
A possible outcome of every protracted violent conflict is one of the following three: a comprehensive peace agreement (including the resolution of all substantive issues); a partial peace agreement, in which case some issues are left hanging or gradually addressed; or a surrender agreement, where the victor dictates the terms and compels the vanquished to accept. The most ideal, yet hardly achieved, is a comprehensive agreement.
In my commentaries in the last three years I have argued that the Boko Haram insurgents were willing to fight to the death because theirs is a doctrine they have sworn to uphold with their last blood. And in my piece two weeks ago I argued that Abukakar Shekau was a chronic psychopath who would not mind dragging down everyone with him including the nearly 300 girls and other hostages he has taken. It is, therefore, very important that we consider seriously our options before plunging into what could become an endless war with unspeakable humanitarian catastrophe.
One key issue has been the level of our soldiers’ preparedness. Of course, unless we want to pretend, we are aware of frustrations amongst soldiers in view of the fact that they are made to fight an enemy who is not only dodgy but also has superior weapons. Many of these soldiers have lost their lives needlessly, while commanders and politicians expropriate funds meant for their welfare and equipment. But they are, nonetheless, pressured for results leading to heinous crimes against humanity like the Baga massacre and many others authorities have so far suppressed.
I have no problem with an onslaught on Boko Haram, but I am alarmed about the cost. Nigeria and all its neighbours harbouring the Boko Haram insurgents are weak states with no clear expertise in fighting unconventional wars. In the end lives would be sacrificed in attempts to crush the sect. And, like it happened in the 1980s and in 2009, the insurgency would be suppressed and remnants of the insurgents would scamper to safety and live to rejuvenate and fight again. Of what use would this approach be, then? Of what value are the lives of Nigerians, including the girls and other hostages and how would this determine our approach today?
Last year when a French family of seven was held in Cameroun a $3 million ransom was allegedly paid to Boko Haram to secure their release. Such secret deals have unsurprisingly become the sect’s largest source of easy funds. But in our case the principle of ‘not negotiating’ with terrorists must be followed to the letter!
By keeping the doors open for talks we are not in any way hob-knobbing with terrorists. We are only realistically addressing a protracted problem. And if in the end agreements are reached it would not mean Abubakar Shekau and others, including military commanders and civilians leaders, that have committed or ordered crimes against humanity would escape justice.
In August 2003 a deal was reached to get Charles Taylor out of the way so peace could be restored in Liberia. Nigeria took him in and today Taylor is paying a price for his role in the wars in Liberia and Sierra Leone.
The UN could step in to ensure war crimes perpetrators on both sides are brought to Justice.
Postscript:
Jos was on fire again this week following bombings in the convalescing city, killing over 200 people. I have just spoken to family back home and, although it is still not clear who is affected, at least two neighbours were not so lucky. A woman who survived off the money she made from selling local juice drink was killed with a baby strapped to her back. A friend’s nephew barely survived with a fractured skull. While the violence spreads fast – Kano and Abuja were recently hit – people who live in well fortified environments and are not in any way affected claim from afar that we are winning the war. How unreasonable!