Reputable global analysts have see a continuous upward price hike of crude oil even after an opening week loss.
It will be recalled that on Monday, oil prices rebounded and were trading higher, extending the rally into morning Asian trade on Tuesday.
Though oil prices fluctuate constantly, to such an extent it is extremely difficult to predict them with any accuracy, especially over a shorter period of time, yet it does bear pointing out that most forecasters seem to expect higher prices for oil later this year. There appears to be broad consensus on this.
Some, such as Forbes’ Bill Sarubbi, note the technical data of oil trading to suggest prices are going to go higher. In a recent story, Sarubbi said that historical data shows oil pric tend to rise between March and May most of the time, so it makes sense to expect them to rise this year as well.
Others, such as Refinitiv, the data analytics firm, single out two factors that will drive prices on the supply and demand sides, respectively: Russia and China.
And Refinitiv expects Brent crude to rise above $100 per barrel by the end of the year
and average $90 for the full year 2023.
Oil demand this year will surge by 2 million barrels daily, Refinitiv said at a recent industry event, and China will account for half of that.
On the other hand, Russia’s supply will tighten this month and maybe remain tight, adding upward pressure to prices. That’s despite prices shaking off the initial shock and surge after the G7/EU price cap on Russian crude and declining more or less consistently since then, stuck in a narrow range around $80.