The much-talked about Coalition cobbled together by an amalgam of oppositions, aggrieved politicians, and a handful of political parties ahead the 2027 election may have suffered a setback; KEHINDE OSASONA writes.
The unveiling
True to its avowed determination to give the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) a run for its money and change the political narratives, the leader of the proposed Coalition and the presidential candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), in the 2023 general election, Atiku Abubakar, while announcing its formation restated the opposition political parties determination to unseat President Bola Tinubu come 2027.
Similar to the most fiercest opposition unleashed against the President Goodluck Jonathan’s administration in 2013, the presidential candidate of the Labour Party (LP) in the 2023 election, Peter Obi; former governor of Kaduna state, Nasir el-Rufai; former national vice-chairman, North-west of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Salihu Lukman; former Secretary to the Government of the Federation (SGF), Babachair Lawal, LP chieftain and Tanko Yunisa among other aggrieved politicians have resolved to come together to wrest power from the ruling APC.
Political actors from the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Social Democratic Party (SDP), and the Labour Party (LP) at the parley vowed to work together to occupy Aso Rock.
Pundits have expressed views that the 2027 election could not be won by a simple Coalition, but would require a solid alliance of all opposition parties.
They hinged their predictions on the fact that alliances are much effective, stronger, offer more stability and formidable front than coalitions.
While Atiku specifically admitted that the Coalition is not about governance, but a strategic move to unseat the (APC)-led administration in 2027, a member of the National Working Committee of the APC, Tolu Bankole, fired back, saying there will be no vacancy in the State House till 2031.
Bankole, the party chieftain, who boasted that the ruling party is not moved by such a threat, added that President Tinubu would serve out his ‘constitutional mandate’ of an eight-year tenure to complete his reforms and transformation of the country.
He said further: “Save your money and energy; there will be no vacancy in Aso Rock in 2027. President Tinubu’s administration has implemented far-reaching economic reforms, setting Nigeria on a path of renewal and long-term prosperity.
“His policies, vision, and leadership are already yielding results, and his second term will consolidate these gains. Those who fantasise about truncating these established order are either ignorant of Nigeria’s political history or are deliberately sowing discord for selfish gains.”
The hurdles, confusion
However, shortly after the Coalition was berthed, confusion, mistrust and zoning issues started playing out.
At its inception and with little or no flair unlike past coalitions and mergers, the whole thing is now looking like what the late legendary freedom fighter, human rights activist and musician, Fela Anikulapo-Kuti, envisaged when he sang dead body get accident, confusion break bone, na double wahala for dead body many decades ago.
The question agitating the minds of Nigerians who had hoped for a credible opposition has been whether or not the Coalition is dead on arrival.
While dissecting the Coalition recently, a former Kano state governor and chairman of the League of Northern Democrats (LND), Malam Ibrahim Shekarau, dismissed it, stating that it lacks the necessary political structure to challenge the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) in the 2027 elections.
According to him, it is being driven by individuals rather than established political structures, making it unlikely to pose a serious threat to the APC’s dominance.
Shekarau, who spoke via a statement, tagged the Coalition as an informal gathering of presidential aspirants rather than a well-organised political merger.
He noted that it “does not have the backing of the leadership of major opposition parties, particularly the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and the Labour Party (LP).”
He said, “The coming together of some senior members of opposition parties is a welcome development, as seen recently under what they call a ‘Coalition’ of opposition parties. But unfortunately, most people do not realise that this so-called coalition has nothing to do with the major opposition parties; PDP and LP,” he said.
Speaking in the same vein, another chieftain of the PDP, Chief Bode George, faulted the formation of the Coalition and the idea of a mega party, insisting that the move was driven by personal ambition.
George also raised concerns over the emerging alliance of opposition figures aspiring for the positions of President or vice president respectively, rather than a structured political coalition.
Atiku was quick to counter Shekarau and George’s criticisms, saying the Coalition had started making progress and won’t be distracted by criticisms.
In a statement by Paul Ibe, the Wazirin Adamawa’s media aide, Atiku said, “The Coalition train has left the station. It’s going to stop at the stopovers and people are going to get on board it. If Bode George and Shekarau want to get on board, they are at liberty to do so. Otherwise, they should just keep quiet.
“People like Bode George don’t know anything about the coalition. He knows nothing about it. So, he cannot speak to what he doesn’t know.”
Lukman’s confession, fears
To compound the confusion, Lukman in a statement expressed fears, saying that the main focus of the talks for now “is securing a commitment from leaders to work together, even if it means setting aside their personal ambitions for 2027.”
Lukman, who raised the alarm over the zoning issue divulged to newsmen that though concerns have emerged among some leaders, but that disagreements never stalled the process, emphasising that the final decision on candidate selection will only be made once an agreement is reached on the party platform for the coalition.
Kwakwanso, Aregbesola, Fayemi, Amaechi out?
Despite their glaring stance and opposition towards the Tinubu’s administration, politicians like Engr. Musa Kwakwanso, the candidate of the New Nigeria Peoples Party in the 2023 election, his factional (NNPP), former governor of Osun state and erstwhile loyalists of Tinubu, Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola, former governor of Ekiti, Dr. Kayode Fayemi and the former governor of Rivers state and minister of Transportation in the former president Muhammadu Buhari’s administration, Rotimi Amaechi and many others could not muster enough courage by identifying publicly with the Coalition.
‘We won’t challenge Tinubu’
Despite brewing opposition staring the ruling APC in the face, relief came a few days when the Patriots, a body of elder statesmen and leaders of thought in the country led by Chief Emeka Anyaoku, pitched its tent with Tinubu and APC.
Explaining why it could not be part of the ongoing efforts by some opposition politicians to challenge Tinubu/APC in the 2027 presidency, the organisation through its Secretary General, Comrade Olawale Okunniyi, said there was no relationship between The Patriots Organisation and the coalition formed by the opposition politicians.
He said the leaders of The Patriots were preoccupied with “bringing about a new Nigeria that works for all as a pan-Nigerian organisation.”
“The new coalition of opposition forces has no relationship with the Patriots as the Patriots as a body of eminent Nigerians, is a non-partisan, pan-Nigerian intervention group of eminent leaders of thought, statesmen and women, who are only committed to bringing about a new Nigeria that works for all via a popularly agreed Constitution by the diverse stakeholders and citizens of Nigeria. So, the Patriots as a group will never entertain or embrace partisan politics.”
To where will the pendulum swing?
During an exclusive chat with Blueprint Weekend, a political analyst, Funbi Oyebade, said although it is not too early for oppositions to plan on how to oust the ruling APC, he nevertheless questioned the integrity and readiness of the actors involved.
“The whole thing looks like a circus thing to me,for instance, the opposition forming coalition never came up with a clear cut ideology and whether or not they are bringing new thing to the table. I mean a clear departure from what we are witnessing.
“I hope it is not a circus show at the end of the day. 2027 is not far again, let’s wait and see,” he said.