HAMIDU SABO analyses the waning popularity of governor Shema-led PDP in Katsina and how the recent defections of PDP members to the APC is creating a fertile soil for taking power from Shema come February 2015. Powerful figures in the state, including the influential late President Umaru Musa YarAdua family members, have teamed up with other notables of Katsina politics, taking the incumbent governor off-guard ahead of the 2015 polls.
As the countdown to the February 2015 general elections gather momentum, the vogue among aspirants into various elective offices has been cross-carpeting or defections, political alignments and realignments, all in the bid to either reach the desired political destinations or achieve personal political gains. Obviously, politicians are taking advantage of electoral guidelines, every available procedure governing the affairs of the political parties. The collection of interest expression or nomination forms have now opened the door to various elective offices in the polity.
The struggles by the persons aspiring to elective offices, to a large extent revolve around the two major political parties, the ruling People’s Democratic Party (PDP), and the seemingly strongest opposition political party, the All Progressives Congress (APC) which was born by the legacy parties, numbering three – CPC, ANPP and ACN. The three merged political parties have individually in the 2011 general elections made some impact in the polity as adjudged by the performance of each across the states in the federation, especially the CPC – then led by the former Head of State – Muhammadu Buhari in Northern states of Katsina, Kano, Kaduna, and Bauchi but bogged down by the PDP machinations.
Now with the coming together of the politicians perceived as progressives in the country under one umbrella, the APC is making a breakthrough not only in the above four mentioned states but it has also extended its tentacles to other states in the federation in a new political twist that seems to have given the party an unprecedented edge over the ruling PDP.
The APC has consolidated in such states as Borno, Adamawa, Yobe, Plateau, Nassarawa, Kogi, Sokoto, Zamfara, Kebbi, Katsina, Kano, breaking through and down to the Southern parts of the country as witnessed in Rivers, Edo, Lagos, Imo, and a host of others in the Southwest and South-south geo-political zones.
For instance, in Katsina state today defections from the ruling PDP to the strong opposition APC have almost weakened the PDP to a state of exhaustion, as bigwigs and influential politicians have all pitched tents with the APC.
More interestingly Blueprint gathered that loyalists to the State immediate past governor cum late President of Nigeria – Umaru Musa ‘YarAdua – including some of his relatives and friends have virtually all moved to the APC. This was exampled by the role the wife to the late president, Turai ‘Yar-Adua with his brother, retired Colonel Abdul’aziz Musa ‘Yar-Adua eyeing the governorship seat. Added to these are a host of others that were already in the political arena of Katsina state.
In the same vein, late governor Umaru Musa Yar’Adua’s one-time Secretary to the state Government, Dr. Mustapha Inuwa is at the head of the defections saga, who now drives, regulates and even dictates to the Katsina political forces as the State Chairman of the APC. He is confident of taking the party to the Promised Land.
A Deputy Governor, who also served under Yar’Adua, Abdullahi Garba Aminchi is now a gubernatorial aspirant on the platform of the APC, as Shema’s former Director RUWASSA, Abdul’aziz Mohammed joined the party’s bandwagon seeking a ticket to the House of Representatives come February 2015 general elections.
Likewise, former Speaker of the State House of Assembly, Kabir Ahmed Kofa, who served under the immediate past administration of late Umaru Musa ‘Yar-Adua is also in the APC, as former SUBEB chairman in Katsina, Inuwa Imam, also a loyalist and close associate of ‘Yar-Adua defected to the party, eyeing for a seat in the Senate.
The All Progressives Congress (APC) in Katsina is each and every day swelling with defectors, as the likes of a former Minister, Abba Sayyadi Ruma, and former House of Representatives Speaker, Aminu Bello Masari, already in the progressives camp of the state adds more weights to the party.
In fact, Masari, a staunch member of the defunct Congress for Progressives Change (CPC) and one of the frontline political strategist in the state, is likely to carry the APC gubernatorial flag and eventually assume the mantle of leadership of the state in 2015.
Another politician with immense grassroots support and former chairman of Safana local government council in the state, Dayyabu Ahmed Safana, who dumped the PDP for APC is an aspirant to the House of Representatives seat in the National Assembly via the Safana Federal constituency. His entry into the APC has pulled an unprecedented followership that the party has to reckon with.
It is most likely that the All Progressives Congress (APC) will wrest power from the ruling People’s Democratic Party (PDP) in Katsina if the massive support the party is enjoying is anything to go by, when compared with the seeming unpopularity of governor Ibrahim Shema’s anointed PDP gubernatorial candidate for the 2015 elections, Engr. Musa Nashuni.
And based on the perceived strength of the APC in Katsina as attested by vox populi by some Community Based Organisations (CBOs) and other independent bodies, Shuni is said to standing on a weak ground and therefore could hardly command loyalty amongst the state’s electorate that have since the unpleasant experiences of post-2011 elections been yearning for positive change.
Also, one of the disturbing aspect of governor Shehu Shema’s political indexterity is that he lacks any strong supporter or loyalist that would back him in times of need or commit as little as N1 million to his defense, let alone any power broker that would promote Shema’s actions anywhere in the polity.
Shema’s political déjà vu may have arisen from his inability to groom a successor and the lackadaisical attitude towards to needs of the people of the state in terms of democracy dividends. Not even the card-carrying members of the PDP members are having a good time in the politics of the state, especially in terms of contract awards or any other form of empowerment.
The conduct of the recent ward congresses of the PDP in Katsina has served as a pointer to the problem with candidature of Engr. Nashuni. Most of the governorship aspirants under the party were one way or the other indicating interest to join APC, as a tactical way of expressing their anger over the injustice done to them during the delegates or ward congress; as none of their supporters were allowed to vote as a delegate. This has been causing a serious setback to the PDP.
It is also advisable for the APC to pull resources and put its house in order and evolve strategies that could check the excesses of the PDP in the state, especially during elections, to forestall a repeat of the machinations of the party – namely election riggings. This was what deprived the CPC of electoral victory in the 2011 elections. For the APC, it is a case of once beaten, twice shy.
Both Engr. Kanti Bello and Honourable Usman Bugaje who are also aspiring for governorship pledge to support any candidate who wins the APC primaries, in their struggle to bring about a change of leadership in Katsina. On the part of Kanti Bello, he has this to say: “we must bring change to save the lives of our peoples and restore Agricultural value that was neglected in the state”.